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Wednesday, 02 February 11
HUGE TONNAGE OVERSUPPLY LOOMING FOR DRY BULK MARKET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 With the dry bulk market taking another dive yesterday, to just over 1,000 points (1,084), losing more than 2% on the day, it’s more than obvious that at least until the Chinese market reopens in a couple of weeks (when the Lunar Year Holidays end), things won’t be much different. Yesterday, it was the Supramax’s sector turn to post the most losses, with the relative Baltic Exchange’s Index, the BSI losing 2.46%.
But maybe the most fearful factor coming into play for the dry bulk market is the so talked about tonnage oversupply. According to a recent report from N.Cotzias Shipping Group, the current dry bulk fleet numbers 23,600 ships 614.3mil tons carrying capacity measured in dwt. “There are 3693 ships that are awaiting to be constructed and delivered up until 2014. These new ships will increase the tonnage in terms of carrying capacity by 29% adding 255mil tons of extra dwt. In 2011 we expect 16% or 139mil tons to be delivered and that includes all 2010 slippages. 2012 we expect another 10% or 87mil tons to fall in the active fleet while in 2013 and 2014 only 30mil tons will be added” Cotzias said.
Meanwhile, in the tanker sector, the current fleet is consisted of 12,250 ships of 516.6mil tons dwt. There are 1200 ships that are on order while their total capacity is estimated to be more than 113 mil tons and that is 18% of the current active fleet’s capacity. These new orders are expected to be delivered as follows: 8% or 53mil tons in 2011 included 2010 slippages, 6% in 2012 or 38mil tons, and the remaining 22mil tons or 4% in 2013-2014.
“In the Container market we have 4900 ships active of 159mil tons Gross Tonnage or 14.1mil TEU and we have 590 ships on order of a total of 42.2mil GT, or another 3.85mil TEU of extra carrying capacity. That is a potential 21% increase in the Container carrying ability that is set to happen until 2014. The overall increase will occur 8% or 16.2mil tons GT in 2011 included the 2010 slippages, another 8% in 2012 or an extra 17mil tons gross, 4% increase in 2013 or 7mil tons GT and only 1% in 2014 or 1.7mil tons.
It seems that all sectors are not going to suffer that dramatically from overcapacity. However it is prudent to note that a great deal of capacity increase happened in 2010 already. We had a total of more than 3000 ships reported as delivered during the past year. That is a phenomenally large number. Of these 1200 were Bulkers and General Cargo ships of 76mil tons extra dwt. 650 Tankers including Products and Chemical tankers ships of a total of 42mil tons of dwt were also launched during 2010. In addition 260 container ships of 14.8mil tons GT or 1.4mil TEU were added in 2010. We can make an accurate estimate that the Bulker and Gen. Cargo fleet grew by 14% in 2010 while the tanker fleet grew by 9% and the Container fleet by a mere less 8%” mentioned the shipbroker.
Of course, demand will also play a major role when it comes to sustaining such a large fleet of vessels. As per the World Economic outlook update that was published by the IMF just a week ago, the two-speed recovery continues. In advanced economies, activity has moderated less than expected, but growth remains subdued, unemployment is still high, and renewed stresses in the euro area periphery are contributing to downside risks. In many emerging economies, activity remains buoyant, inflation pressures are emerging, and there are now some signs of overheating, driven in part by strong capital inflows.
Most developing countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, are also growing strongly. Global output is projected to expand by 4½ percent in 2011 an upward revision of about ¼ percentage point relative to the October 2010 World Economic Outlook (WEO). This reflects stronger-than-expected activity in the second half of 2010 as well as new policy initiatives in the United States that will boost activity this year. But downside risks to the recovery remain elevated. The most urgent requirements for robust recovery are comprehensive and rapid actions to overcome sovereign and financial troubles in the euro area and policies to redress fiscal imbalances and to repair and reform financial systems in advanced economies more generally. These need to be complemented with policies that keep overheating pressures in check and facilitate external rebalancing in key emerging economies.
“It is impossible to make any forecasts, We see that world events political or simply acts of god, alter the map or trade and tilt the economic scales that dictate world cargo movements. Suez canal blockage may disrupt shipping lines, no-one knows if such a possibility may occur however if that happens then the CGH will once more see a great deal of traffic through it with price of oil rising to the sky and possibly boosting freight rates to crazy figures. However we should stress that due to high costs imposed by the Suez Canal Authorities and the evergrowing Piracy threats in the GOA area are seriously bringing down canal traffic and as such the effects of a canal closure might prove to be a lot less detrimental on worldwide shipping than initially thought” concluded Cotzias.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Friday, 28 January 11
MPM SEEKS 40K TONS OF INDONESIAN COAL
An Indian paper producer Mysore Paper Mills Ltd., based in Bangalore is looking for 40,000 metric tons of non-coking coal of Indonesian o ...
Friday, 28 January 11
TRADING PERMIT DELAYS THREATEN EXPORTS - THE JAKARTA GLOBE
The Jakarta Globe reported that, an ongoing wrangle over licenses for mining traders could hurt investment, a coal mining association chief said on ...
Friday, 28 January 11
DRY BULK MARKET CLOSING IN TOWARDS CRISIS LEVELS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The trials and tribulations of the dry bulk market seem to have no end during the first month of 2011, as the industry’s benchmark, the Baltic ...
Wednesday, 26 January 11
ADANI TO SET-UP RAIL, PORT AND POWER PROJECTS IN INDONESIA - MONEYCONTROL
Moneycontrol reported that, Adani Enterprises, the flagship company of India’s infrastructure conglomerate the Adani Group, today announced th ...
Wednesday, 26 January 11
DRY BULK MARKET TAKES YET ANOTHER NOSEDIVE, CAPESIZES LOOK RATHER UNATTRACTIVE AT THE MOMENT - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The downturn of the dry bulk market sees no boundariers, disproving even those who thought that at least for the capesize market, the worst had pass ...
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- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Planning Commission, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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