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Wednesday, 02 February 11
HUGE TONNAGE OVERSUPPLY LOOMING FOR DRY BULK MARKET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 With the dry bulk market taking another dive yesterday, to just over 1,000 points (1,084), losing more than 2% on the day, it’s more than obvious that at least until the Chinese market reopens in a couple of weeks (when the Lunar Year Holidays end), things won’t be much different. Yesterday, it was the Supramax’s sector turn to post the most losses, with the relative Baltic Exchange’s Index, the BSI losing 2.46%.
But maybe the most fearful factor coming into play for the dry bulk market is the so talked about tonnage oversupply. According to a recent report from N.Cotzias Shipping Group, the current dry bulk fleet numbers 23,600 ships 614.3mil tons carrying capacity measured in dwt. “There are 3693 ships that are awaiting to be constructed and delivered up until 2014. These new ships will increase the tonnage in terms of carrying capacity by 29% adding 255mil tons of extra dwt. In 2011 we expect 16% or 139mil tons to be delivered and that includes all 2010 slippages. 2012 we expect another 10% or 87mil tons to fall in the active fleet while in 2013 and 2014 only 30mil tons will be added” Cotzias said.
Meanwhile, in the tanker sector, the current fleet is consisted of 12,250 ships of 516.6mil tons dwt. There are 1200 ships that are on order while their total capacity is estimated to be more than 113 mil tons and that is 18% of the current active fleet’s capacity. These new orders are expected to be delivered as follows: 8% or 53mil tons in 2011 included 2010 slippages, 6% in 2012 or 38mil tons, and the remaining 22mil tons or 4% in 2013-2014.
“In the Container market we have 4900 ships active of 159mil tons Gross Tonnage or 14.1mil TEU and we have 590 ships on order of a total of 42.2mil GT, or another 3.85mil TEU of extra carrying capacity. That is a potential 21% increase in the Container carrying ability that is set to happen until 2014. The overall increase will occur 8% or 16.2mil tons GT in 2011 included the 2010 slippages, another 8% in 2012 or an extra 17mil tons gross, 4% increase in 2013 or 7mil tons GT and only 1% in 2014 or 1.7mil tons.
It seems that all sectors are not going to suffer that dramatically from overcapacity. However it is prudent to note that a great deal of capacity increase happened in 2010 already. We had a total of more than 3000 ships reported as delivered during the past year. That is a phenomenally large number. Of these 1200 were Bulkers and General Cargo ships of 76mil tons extra dwt. 650 Tankers including Products and Chemical tankers ships of a total of 42mil tons of dwt were also launched during 2010. In addition 260 container ships of 14.8mil tons GT or 1.4mil TEU were added in 2010. We can make an accurate estimate that the Bulker and Gen. Cargo fleet grew by 14% in 2010 while the tanker fleet grew by 9% and the Container fleet by a mere less 8%” mentioned the shipbroker.
Of course, demand will also play a major role when it comes to sustaining such a large fleet of vessels. As per the World Economic outlook update that was published by the IMF just a week ago, the two-speed recovery continues. In advanced economies, activity has moderated less than expected, but growth remains subdued, unemployment is still high, and renewed stresses in the euro area periphery are contributing to downside risks. In many emerging economies, activity remains buoyant, inflation pressures are emerging, and there are now some signs of overheating, driven in part by strong capital inflows.
Most developing countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, are also growing strongly. Global output is projected to expand by 4½ percent in 2011 an upward revision of about ¼ percentage point relative to the October 2010 World Economic Outlook (WEO). This reflects stronger-than-expected activity in the second half of 2010 as well as new policy initiatives in the United States that will boost activity this year. But downside risks to the recovery remain elevated. The most urgent requirements for robust recovery are comprehensive and rapid actions to overcome sovereign and financial troubles in the euro area and policies to redress fiscal imbalances and to repair and reform financial systems in advanced economies more generally. These need to be complemented with policies that keep overheating pressures in check and facilitate external rebalancing in key emerging economies.
“It is impossible to make any forecasts, We see that world events political or simply acts of god, alter the map or trade and tilt the economic scales that dictate world cargo movements. Suez canal blockage may disrupt shipping lines, no-one knows if such a possibility may occur however if that happens then the CGH will once more see a great deal of traffic through it with price of oil rising to the sky and possibly boosting freight rates to crazy figures. However we should stress that due to high costs imposed by the Suez Canal Authorities and the evergrowing Piracy threats in the GOA area are seriously bringing down canal traffic and as such the effects of a canal closure might prove to be a lot less detrimental on worldwide shipping than initially thought” concluded Cotzias.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Saturday, 22 January 11
POSSIBLE COAL EXPORT RESTRICTIONS ON INDONESIA UNLIKELY TO AFFECT CHURCHILL MINING - PROACTIVE INVESTORS
Proactive Investors reported that, Churchill Mining moved to reassure investors after a fall in its share price, stating that from talks with the au ...
Thursday, 20 January 11
INDONESIA MAY BAN LOW-QUALITY COAL EXPORTS FROM 2014 - BLOOMBERG
Bloomberg reported that, The Indonesian government plans to ban exports of coal with an energy value of less than 5,600 kilocalories a kilogram star ...
Thursday, 20 January 11
SUPRAS ARE DOING USD 7- 8K FOR INDONESIA-INDIA - FEARNBULK
Handy
Negative sentiment for forward positions in the Atlantic market due to lack of cargo availability and too many ballasters from the East. Con ...
Thursday, 20 January 11
ITMG TARGETS TO PRODUCE 25 MILLION TONS OF COAL THIS YEAR - BISNIS INDONESIA
Bisnis Indonesia reported that, Coal producer PT Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk (ITMG) targets to produce 25 million tons of coal this year, a 13. ...
Thursday, 20 January 11
DRY BULK MARKETS FALL SEES NO END - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Pundits indicating that the dry bulk market’s sentiment remains weak were justified, as the industry’s benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index ( ...
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- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
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