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Wednesday, 02 February 11
HUGE TONNAGE OVERSUPPLY LOOMING FOR DRY BULK MARKET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 With the dry bulk market taking another dive yesterday, to just over 1,000 points (1,084), losing more than 2% on the day, it’s more than obvious that at least until the Chinese market reopens in a couple of weeks (when the Lunar Year Holidays end), things won’t be much different. Yesterday, it was the Supramax’s sector turn to post the most losses, with the relative Baltic Exchange’s Index, the BSI losing 2.46%.
But maybe the most fearful factor coming into play for the dry bulk market is the so talked about tonnage oversupply. According to a recent report from N.Cotzias Shipping Group, the current dry bulk fleet numbers 23,600 ships 614.3mil tons carrying capacity measured in dwt. “There are 3693 ships that are awaiting to be constructed and delivered up until 2014. These new ships will increase the tonnage in terms of carrying capacity by 29% adding 255mil tons of extra dwt. In 2011 we expect 16% or 139mil tons to be delivered and that includes all 2010 slippages. 2012 we expect another 10% or 87mil tons to fall in the active fleet while in 2013 and 2014 only 30mil tons will be added” Cotzias said.
Meanwhile, in the tanker sector, the current fleet is consisted of 12,250 ships of 516.6mil tons dwt. There are 1200 ships that are on order while their total capacity is estimated to be more than 113 mil tons and that is 18% of the current active fleet’s capacity. These new orders are expected to be delivered as follows: 8% or 53mil tons in 2011 included 2010 slippages, 6% in 2012 or 38mil tons, and the remaining 22mil tons or 4% in 2013-2014.
“In the Container market we have 4900 ships active of 159mil tons Gross Tonnage or 14.1mil TEU and we have 590 ships on order of a total of 42.2mil GT, or another 3.85mil TEU of extra carrying capacity. That is a potential 21% increase in the Container carrying ability that is set to happen until 2014. The overall increase will occur 8% or 16.2mil tons GT in 2011 included the 2010 slippages, another 8% in 2012 or an extra 17mil tons gross, 4% increase in 2013 or 7mil tons GT and only 1% in 2014 or 1.7mil tons.
It seems that all sectors are not going to suffer that dramatically from overcapacity. However it is prudent to note that a great deal of capacity increase happened in 2010 already. We had a total of more than 3000 ships reported as delivered during the past year. That is a phenomenally large number. Of these 1200 were Bulkers and General Cargo ships of 76mil tons extra dwt. 650 Tankers including Products and Chemical tankers ships of a total of 42mil tons of dwt were also launched during 2010. In addition 260 container ships of 14.8mil tons GT or 1.4mil TEU were added in 2010. We can make an accurate estimate that the Bulker and Gen. Cargo fleet grew by 14% in 2010 while the tanker fleet grew by 9% and the Container fleet by a mere less 8%” mentioned the shipbroker.
Of course, demand will also play a major role when it comes to sustaining such a large fleet of vessels. As per the World Economic outlook update that was published by the IMF just a week ago, the two-speed recovery continues. In advanced economies, activity has moderated less than expected, but growth remains subdued, unemployment is still high, and renewed stresses in the euro area periphery are contributing to downside risks. In many emerging economies, activity remains buoyant, inflation pressures are emerging, and there are now some signs of overheating, driven in part by strong capital inflows.
Most developing countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, are also growing strongly. Global output is projected to expand by 4½ percent in 2011 an upward revision of about ¼ percentage point relative to the October 2010 World Economic Outlook (WEO). This reflects stronger-than-expected activity in the second half of 2010 as well as new policy initiatives in the United States that will boost activity this year. But downside risks to the recovery remain elevated. The most urgent requirements for robust recovery are comprehensive and rapid actions to overcome sovereign and financial troubles in the euro area and policies to redress fiscal imbalances and to repair and reform financial systems in advanced economies more generally. These need to be complemented with policies that keep overheating pressures in check and facilitate external rebalancing in key emerging economies.
“It is impossible to make any forecasts, We see that world events political or simply acts of god, alter the map or trade and tilt the economic scales that dictate world cargo movements. Suez canal blockage may disrupt shipping lines, no-one knows if such a possibility may occur however if that happens then the CGH will once more see a great deal of traffic through it with price of oil rising to the sky and possibly boosting freight rates to crazy figures. However we should stress that due to high costs imposed by the Suez Canal Authorities and the evergrowing Piracy threats in the GOA area are seriously bringing down canal traffic and as such the effects of a canal closure might prove to be a lot less detrimental on worldwide shipping than initially thought” concluded Cotzias.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Wednesday, 19 January 11
DRY BULK MARKET HAS BOTTOMED OUT, AS WEATHER IN AUSTRALIA DIALS DOWN - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market has finally halted its plunge, after a devastating week of yet more losses. The industry’s benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index ...
Tuesday, 18 January 11
MINISTRY SEEKS COAL FROM INDONESIA - SUNDAY OBSERVER
Sunday Observer reported that, Ministry of Power and Energy is to explore the possibilities of importing quality coal from Indonesia.
Minister Pa ...
Tuesday, 18 January 11
DRY BULK MARKET HAS BOTTOMED OUT, AS WEATHER IN AUSTRALIA DIALS DOWN - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market has finally halted its plunge, after a devastating week of yet more losses. The industry’s benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index ...
Sunday, 16 January 11
STANCHART GLOBAL RESEARCH SEES COAL PRICE RISING ON SUPPLY DISRUPTION - BURSA MALAYSIA MARKET NEWS
Bursa Malaysia Market News reported that, Standard Chartered Global Research has upgraded its 2011 forecasts for global thermal coal prices based on ...
Saturday, 15 January 11
SUPRAMAX VESSELS FIXED AROUND $ 8K FOR TRIP VIA INDONESIA TO INDIA - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The BDI continues to drop and has touched below 1,500 points with the cape index severely affected with the index touching 1,595 poin ...
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- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Planning Commission, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
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