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Wednesday, 02 February 11
HUGE TONNAGE OVERSUPPLY LOOMING FOR DRY BULK MARKET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 With the dry bulk market taking another dive yesterday, to just over 1,000 points (1,084), losing more than 2% on the day, it’s more than obvious that at least until the Chinese market reopens in a couple of weeks (when the Lunar Year Holidays end), things won’t be much different. Yesterday, it was the Supramax’s sector turn to post the most losses, with the relative Baltic Exchange’s Index, the BSI losing 2.46%.
But maybe the most fearful factor coming into play for the dry bulk market is the so talked about tonnage oversupply. According to a recent report from N.Cotzias Shipping Group, the current dry bulk fleet numbers 23,600 ships 614.3mil tons carrying capacity measured in dwt. “There are 3693 ships that are awaiting to be constructed and delivered up until 2014. These new ships will increase the tonnage in terms of carrying capacity by 29% adding 255mil tons of extra dwt. In 2011 we expect 16% or 139mil tons to be delivered and that includes all 2010 slippages. 2012 we expect another 10% or 87mil tons to fall in the active fleet while in 2013 and 2014 only 30mil tons will be added” Cotzias said.
Meanwhile, in the tanker sector, the current fleet is consisted of 12,250 ships of 516.6mil tons dwt. There are 1200 ships that are on order while their total capacity is estimated to be more than 113 mil tons and that is 18% of the current active fleet’s capacity. These new orders are expected to be delivered as follows: 8% or 53mil tons in 2011 included 2010 slippages, 6% in 2012 or 38mil tons, and the remaining 22mil tons or 4% in 2013-2014.
“In the Container market we have 4900 ships active of 159mil tons Gross Tonnage or 14.1mil TEU and we have 590 ships on order of a total of 42.2mil GT, or another 3.85mil TEU of extra carrying capacity. That is a potential 21% increase in the Container carrying ability that is set to happen until 2014. The overall increase will occur 8% or 16.2mil tons GT in 2011 included the 2010 slippages, another 8% in 2012 or an extra 17mil tons gross, 4% increase in 2013 or 7mil tons GT and only 1% in 2014 or 1.7mil tons.
It seems that all sectors are not going to suffer that dramatically from overcapacity. However it is prudent to note that a great deal of capacity increase happened in 2010 already. We had a total of more than 3000 ships reported as delivered during the past year. That is a phenomenally large number. Of these 1200 were Bulkers and General Cargo ships of 76mil tons extra dwt. 650 Tankers including Products and Chemical tankers ships of a total of 42mil tons of dwt were also launched during 2010. In addition 260 container ships of 14.8mil tons GT or 1.4mil TEU were added in 2010. We can make an accurate estimate that the Bulker and Gen. Cargo fleet grew by 14% in 2010 while the tanker fleet grew by 9% and the Container fleet by a mere less 8%” mentioned the shipbroker.
Of course, demand will also play a major role when it comes to sustaining such a large fleet of vessels. As per the World Economic outlook update that was published by the IMF just a week ago, the two-speed recovery continues. In advanced economies, activity has moderated less than expected, but growth remains subdued, unemployment is still high, and renewed stresses in the euro area periphery are contributing to downside risks. In many emerging economies, activity remains buoyant, inflation pressures are emerging, and there are now some signs of overheating, driven in part by strong capital inflows.
Most developing countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, are also growing strongly. Global output is projected to expand by 4½ percent in 2011 an upward revision of about ¼ percentage point relative to the October 2010 World Economic Outlook (WEO). This reflects stronger-than-expected activity in the second half of 2010 as well as new policy initiatives in the United States that will boost activity this year. But downside risks to the recovery remain elevated. The most urgent requirements for robust recovery are comprehensive and rapid actions to overcome sovereign and financial troubles in the euro area and policies to redress fiscal imbalances and to repair and reform financial systems in advanced economies more generally. These need to be complemented with policies that keep overheating pressures in check and facilitate external rebalancing in key emerging economies.
“It is impossible to make any forecasts, We see that world events political or simply acts of god, alter the map or trade and tilt the economic scales that dictate world cargo movements. Suez canal blockage may disrupt shipping lines, no-one knows if such a possibility may occur however if that happens then the CGH will once more see a great deal of traffic through it with price of oil rising to the sky and possibly boosting freight rates to crazy figures. However we should stress that due to high costs imposed by the Suez Canal Authorities and the evergrowing Piracy threats in the GOA area are seriously bringing down canal traffic and as such the effects of a canal closure might prove to be a lot less detrimental on worldwide shipping than initially thought” concluded Cotzias.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Wednesday, 02 February 11
BAYAN TO SUPPLY COAL TO TP UTILITIES LTD
Insider Stories has reportd that, Indonesia's one of the leading coal miner PT Bayan Resources Tbk (BYAN) owned by businessman Dato' Low Tuck ...
Monday, 31 January 11
S. SUMATRA COAL RAILWAY TO BE COMPLETED ON SCHEDULE - THE JAKARTA POST
The Jakarta Post reported that, despite land acquisition problems, state coal mining company PT Bukit Asam is upbeat that the development of a railw ...
Monday, 31 January 11
COAL MINER PTBA TO DRIVE OUTPUT WITH ACQUISITIONS - THE JAKARTA GLOBE
The Jakarta Globe reported that, State coal company Perusahaan Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam said its output would increase 34 percent to 17.6 million ...
Saturday, 29 January 11
PRESSURE ON SHIPPING MARKET MAY CONTINUE UNTIL MID FEBRUARY 2011
COALspot.com - The BDI continues to drop and saw a drop of about 5 pct this week closing at 1370 points.
In May 2010 the BDI touched 4,209 ...
Saturday, 29 January 11
ANTAM ACQUIRES SAROLANGUN COAL MINING
According to Insider Stories, Nickel and gold miner PT Aneka Tambang Tbk (Antam) of Indonesia via its subsidiary PT Indonesia Coal Resources (ICR) h ...
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- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Planning Commission, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Australian Coal Association
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
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