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Wednesday, 02 February 11
HUGE TONNAGE OVERSUPPLY LOOMING FOR DRY BULK MARKET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 With the dry bulk market taking another dive yesterday, to just over 1,000 points (1,084), losing more than 2% on the day, it’s more than obvious that at least until the Chinese market reopens in a couple of weeks (when the Lunar Year Holidays end), things won’t be much different. Yesterday, it was the Supramax’s sector turn to post the most losses, with the relative Baltic Exchange’s Index, the BSI losing 2.46%.
But maybe the most fearful factor coming into play for the dry bulk market is the so talked about tonnage oversupply. According to a recent report from N.Cotzias Shipping Group, the current dry bulk fleet numbers 23,600 ships 614.3mil tons carrying capacity measured in dwt. “There are 3693 ships that are awaiting to be constructed and delivered up until 2014. These new ships will increase the tonnage in terms of carrying capacity by 29% adding 255mil tons of extra dwt. In 2011 we expect 16% or 139mil tons to be delivered and that includes all 2010 slippages. 2012 we expect another 10% or 87mil tons to fall in the active fleet while in 2013 and 2014 only 30mil tons will be added” Cotzias said.
Meanwhile, in the tanker sector, the current fleet is consisted of 12,250 ships of 516.6mil tons dwt. There are 1200 ships that are on order while their total capacity is estimated to be more than 113 mil tons and that is 18% of the current active fleet’s capacity. These new orders are expected to be delivered as follows: 8% or 53mil tons in 2011 included 2010 slippages, 6% in 2012 or 38mil tons, and the remaining 22mil tons or 4% in 2013-2014.
“In the Container market we have 4900 ships active of 159mil tons Gross Tonnage or 14.1mil TEU and we have 590 ships on order of a total of 42.2mil GT, or another 3.85mil TEU of extra carrying capacity. That is a potential 21% increase in the Container carrying ability that is set to happen until 2014. The overall increase will occur 8% or 16.2mil tons GT in 2011 included the 2010 slippages, another 8% in 2012 or an extra 17mil tons gross, 4% increase in 2013 or 7mil tons GT and only 1% in 2014 or 1.7mil tons.
It seems that all sectors are not going to suffer that dramatically from overcapacity. However it is prudent to note that a great deal of capacity increase happened in 2010 already. We had a total of more than 3000 ships reported as delivered during the past year. That is a phenomenally large number. Of these 1200 were Bulkers and General Cargo ships of 76mil tons extra dwt. 650 Tankers including Products and Chemical tankers ships of a total of 42mil tons of dwt were also launched during 2010. In addition 260 container ships of 14.8mil tons GT or 1.4mil TEU were added in 2010. We can make an accurate estimate that the Bulker and Gen. Cargo fleet grew by 14% in 2010 while the tanker fleet grew by 9% and the Container fleet by a mere less 8%” mentioned the shipbroker.
Of course, demand will also play a major role when it comes to sustaining such a large fleet of vessels. As per the World Economic outlook update that was published by the IMF just a week ago, the two-speed recovery continues. In advanced economies, activity has moderated less than expected, but growth remains subdued, unemployment is still high, and renewed stresses in the euro area periphery are contributing to downside risks. In many emerging economies, activity remains buoyant, inflation pressures are emerging, and there are now some signs of overheating, driven in part by strong capital inflows.
Most developing countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, are also growing strongly. Global output is projected to expand by 4½ percent in 2011 an upward revision of about ¼ percentage point relative to the October 2010 World Economic Outlook (WEO). This reflects stronger-than-expected activity in the second half of 2010 as well as new policy initiatives in the United States that will boost activity this year. But downside risks to the recovery remain elevated. The most urgent requirements for robust recovery are comprehensive and rapid actions to overcome sovereign and financial troubles in the euro area and policies to redress fiscal imbalances and to repair and reform financial systems in advanced economies more generally. These need to be complemented with policies that keep overheating pressures in check and facilitate external rebalancing in key emerging economies.
“It is impossible to make any forecasts, We see that world events political or simply acts of god, alter the map or trade and tilt the economic scales that dictate world cargo movements. Suez canal blockage may disrupt shipping lines, no-one knows if such a possibility may occur however if that happens then the CGH will once more see a great deal of traffic through it with price of oil rising to the sky and possibly boosting freight rates to crazy figures. However we should stress that due to high costs imposed by the Suez Canal Authorities and the evergrowing Piracy threats in the GOA area are seriously bringing down canal traffic and as such the effects of a canal closure might prove to be a lot less detrimental on worldwide shipping than initially thought” concluded Cotzias.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Friday, 04 February 11
PERTAMINA DENIES KAREN AGUSTIAWAN RESIGNS FROM PERTAMINA
COALspot.com - The President Director of PT Pertamina, Karen Agustiawan reportedly will replace Darwin Saleh as Minister of Energy and Mineral Resou ...
Friday, 04 February 11
ADARO ENERGY FY10 COAL SALES UP 6 PERCENT TO 43.84 MILLION
As reported by insider stories, Indonesian coal miners PT Adaro Energy Tbk has produced 42.20 million tons of coal in 2010, a 4 percent increase com ...
Thursday, 03 February 11
MERCATOR LINES TO INVEST RS 200-250 CRORE ON COAL MINE IN INDONESIA - ECONOMIC TIMES
Economic Times reported that, Mercator Lines, the HK Mittal-controlled shipping-to-mines major, will invest about 200-250 crore (US$ 43.825 - 54.781 ...
Thursday, 03 February 11
DRY BULK MARKET LOOKS SET TO BOTTOM OUT NIKOS - ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
With the dry bulk market having lost more than 72% of its value in the last month or so and having retreated to a 2-year low, it seems that the bott ...
Wednesday, 02 February 11
INDONESIA MAY MISS COAL EXPORT TARGET IN 2011
COALspot.com - Indonesian Trade ministry has instructed independent surveyors temporarily not to issue pre-shipment survey report (LS) to the compan ...
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- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The University of Queensland
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PTC India Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- White Energy Company Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
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