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Wednesday, 02 February 11
HUGE TONNAGE OVERSUPPLY LOOMING FOR DRY BULK MARKET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 With the dry bulk market taking another dive yesterday, to just over 1,000 points (1,084), losing more than 2% on the day, it’s more than obvious that at least until the Chinese market reopens in a couple of weeks (when the Lunar Year Holidays end), things won’t be much different. Yesterday, it was the Supramax’s sector turn to post the most losses, with the relative Baltic Exchange’s Index, the BSI losing 2.46%.
But maybe the most fearful factor coming into play for the dry bulk market is the so talked about tonnage oversupply. According to a recent report from N.Cotzias Shipping Group, the current dry bulk fleet numbers 23,600 ships 614.3mil tons carrying capacity measured in dwt. “There are 3693 ships that are awaiting to be constructed and delivered up until 2014. These new ships will increase the tonnage in terms of carrying capacity by 29% adding 255mil tons of extra dwt. In 2011 we expect 16% or 139mil tons to be delivered and that includes all 2010 slippages. 2012 we expect another 10% or 87mil tons to fall in the active fleet while in 2013 and 2014 only 30mil tons will be added” Cotzias said.
Meanwhile, in the tanker sector, the current fleet is consisted of 12,250 ships of 516.6mil tons dwt. There are 1200 ships that are on order while their total capacity is estimated to be more than 113 mil tons and that is 18% of the current active fleet’s capacity. These new orders are expected to be delivered as follows: 8% or 53mil tons in 2011 included 2010 slippages, 6% in 2012 or 38mil tons, and the remaining 22mil tons or 4% in 2013-2014.
“In the Container market we have 4900 ships active of 159mil tons Gross Tonnage or 14.1mil TEU and we have 590 ships on order of a total of 42.2mil GT, or another 3.85mil TEU of extra carrying capacity. That is a potential 21% increase in the Container carrying ability that is set to happen until 2014. The overall increase will occur 8% or 16.2mil tons GT in 2011 included the 2010 slippages, another 8% in 2012 or an extra 17mil tons gross, 4% increase in 2013 or 7mil tons GT and only 1% in 2014 or 1.7mil tons.
It seems that all sectors are not going to suffer that dramatically from overcapacity. However it is prudent to note that a great deal of capacity increase happened in 2010 already. We had a total of more than 3000 ships reported as delivered during the past year. That is a phenomenally large number. Of these 1200 were Bulkers and General Cargo ships of 76mil tons extra dwt. 650 Tankers including Products and Chemical tankers ships of a total of 42mil tons of dwt were also launched during 2010. In addition 260 container ships of 14.8mil tons GT or 1.4mil TEU were added in 2010. We can make an accurate estimate that the Bulker and Gen. Cargo fleet grew by 14% in 2010 while the tanker fleet grew by 9% and the Container fleet by a mere less 8%” mentioned the shipbroker.
Of course, demand will also play a major role when it comes to sustaining such a large fleet of vessels. As per the World Economic outlook update that was published by the IMF just a week ago, the two-speed recovery continues. In advanced economies, activity has moderated less than expected, but growth remains subdued, unemployment is still high, and renewed stresses in the euro area periphery are contributing to downside risks. In many emerging economies, activity remains buoyant, inflation pressures are emerging, and there are now some signs of overheating, driven in part by strong capital inflows.
Most developing countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, are also growing strongly. Global output is projected to expand by 4½ percent in 2011 an upward revision of about ¼ percentage point relative to the October 2010 World Economic Outlook (WEO). This reflects stronger-than-expected activity in the second half of 2010 as well as new policy initiatives in the United States that will boost activity this year. But downside risks to the recovery remain elevated. The most urgent requirements for robust recovery are comprehensive and rapid actions to overcome sovereign and financial troubles in the euro area and policies to redress fiscal imbalances and to repair and reform financial systems in advanced economies more generally. These need to be complemented with policies that keep overheating pressures in check and facilitate external rebalancing in key emerging economies.
“It is impossible to make any forecasts, We see that world events political or simply acts of god, alter the map or trade and tilt the economic scales that dictate world cargo movements. Suez canal blockage may disrupt shipping lines, no-one knows if such a possibility may occur however if that happens then the CGH will once more see a great deal of traffic through it with price of oil rising to the sky and possibly boosting freight rates to crazy figures. However we should stress that due to high costs imposed by the Suez Canal Authorities and the evergrowing Piracy threats in the GOA area are seriously bringing down canal traffic and as such the effects of a canal closure might prove to be a lot less detrimental on worldwide shipping than initially thought” concluded Cotzias.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Monday, 07 February 11
RICHARDS BAY COAL TERMINAL EXPORTS SURGE, BUOYED BY ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN CHINA AND INDIA
COALspot.com - Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT) announced today that 2010 exports have exceeded the last two years’ performance, said in a re ...
Monday, 07 February 11
RBCT SHIPPED 28.67 PERCENT LESS COAL IN JANUARY
COALspot.com - Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT) is the single largest export coal terminal in the world, shipped 4,389,925 MT of coal in January 20 ...
Sunday, 06 February 11
THE PANAMAX & SUPRAMAX FUTURES FOR 2011-2013 WAS AT AROUND US$ 16,500 & US$ 15,000 PER DAY RESPECTIVELY
COALspot.com - With the Chinese new year holidays this week, the market has been fairly quite as expected.
The BDI saw a bigger drop compared to ...
Saturday, 05 February 11
INDONESIAN ENERGY MINISTER HAS SIGNED A DECREE FOR COAL TRANSPORTATION PERMITS ON FRIDAY
COALspot.com - Minister of Energy, Darwin Minister Saleh said, that, he had signed a decree for transportation and sale of coal, which was the ...
Saturday, 05 February 11
ANCHORAGE LOADING POINT MOVED TO MUARA JAWA
COALspot.com - The Ministry of Transportation Republic Indonesia has announced that, the loading point at Muara Berau, East kalimantan h ...
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- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- White Energy Company Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PTC India Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Australian Coal Association
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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