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Wednesday, 02 February 11
HUGE TONNAGE OVERSUPPLY LOOMING FOR DRY BULK MARKET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 With the dry bulk market taking another dive yesterday, to just over 1,000 points (1,084), losing more than 2% on the day, it’s more than obvious that at least until the Chinese market reopens in a couple of weeks (when the Lunar Year Holidays end), things won’t be much different. Yesterday, it was the Supramax’s sector turn to post the most losses, with the relative Baltic Exchange’s Index, the BSI losing 2.46%.
But maybe the most fearful factor coming into play for the dry bulk market is the so talked about tonnage oversupply. According to a recent report from N.Cotzias Shipping Group, the current dry bulk fleet numbers 23,600 ships 614.3mil tons carrying capacity measured in dwt. “There are 3693 ships that are awaiting to be constructed and delivered up until 2014. These new ships will increase the tonnage in terms of carrying capacity by 29% adding 255mil tons of extra dwt. In 2011 we expect 16% or 139mil tons to be delivered and that includes all 2010 slippages. 2012 we expect another 10% or 87mil tons to fall in the active fleet while in 2013 and 2014 only 30mil tons will be added” Cotzias said.
Meanwhile, in the tanker sector, the current fleet is consisted of 12,250 ships of 516.6mil tons dwt. There are 1200 ships that are on order while their total capacity is estimated to be more than 113 mil tons and that is 18% of the current active fleet’s capacity. These new orders are expected to be delivered as follows: 8% or 53mil tons in 2011 included 2010 slippages, 6% in 2012 or 38mil tons, and the remaining 22mil tons or 4% in 2013-2014.
“In the Container market we have 4900 ships active of 159mil tons Gross Tonnage or 14.1mil TEU and we have 590 ships on order of a total of 42.2mil GT, or another 3.85mil TEU of extra carrying capacity. That is a potential 21% increase in the Container carrying ability that is set to happen until 2014. The overall increase will occur 8% or 16.2mil tons GT in 2011 included the 2010 slippages, another 8% in 2012 or an extra 17mil tons gross, 4% increase in 2013 or 7mil tons GT and only 1% in 2014 or 1.7mil tons.
It seems that all sectors are not going to suffer that dramatically from overcapacity. However it is prudent to note that a great deal of capacity increase happened in 2010 already. We had a total of more than 3000 ships reported as delivered during the past year. That is a phenomenally large number. Of these 1200 were Bulkers and General Cargo ships of 76mil tons extra dwt. 650 Tankers including Products and Chemical tankers ships of a total of 42mil tons of dwt were also launched during 2010. In addition 260 container ships of 14.8mil tons GT or 1.4mil TEU were added in 2010. We can make an accurate estimate that the Bulker and Gen. Cargo fleet grew by 14% in 2010 while the tanker fleet grew by 9% and the Container fleet by a mere less 8%” mentioned the shipbroker.
Of course, demand will also play a major role when it comes to sustaining such a large fleet of vessels. As per the World Economic outlook update that was published by the IMF just a week ago, the two-speed recovery continues. In advanced economies, activity has moderated less than expected, but growth remains subdued, unemployment is still high, and renewed stresses in the euro area periphery are contributing to downside risks. In many emerging economies, activity remains buoyant, inflation pressures are emerging, and there are now some signs of overheating, driven in part by strong capital inflows.
Most developing countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, are also growing strongly. Global output is projected to expand by 4½ percent in 2011 an upward revision of about ¼ percentage point relative to the October 2010 World Economic Outlook (WEO). This reflects stronger-than-expected activity in the second half of 2010 as well as new policy initiatives in the United States that will boost activity this year. But downside risks to the recovery remain elevated. The most urgent requirements for robust recovery are comprehensive and rapid actions to overcome sovereign and financial troubles in the euro area and policies to redress fiscal imbalances and to repair and reform financial systems in advanced economies more generally. These need to be complemented with policies that keep overheating pressures in check and facilitate external rebalancing in key emerging economies.
“It is impossible to make any forecasts, We see that world events political or simply acts of god, alter the map or trade and tilt the economic scales that dictate world cargo movements. Suez canal blockage may disrupt shipping lines, no-one knows if such a possibility may occur however if that happens then the CGH will once more see a great deal of traffic through it with price of oil rising to the sky and possibly boosting freight rates to crazy figures. However we should stress that due to high costs imposed by the Suez Canal Authorities and the evergrowing Piracy threats in the GOA area are seriously bringing down canal traffic and as such the effects of a canal closure might prove to be a lot less detrimental on worldwide shipping than initially thought” concluded Cotzias.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Tuesday, 08 February 11
PUSTAKA JAYA PALU POWER LOOKING FOR 5800 GAD COAL
COALspot.com - According to market information, PT Pustaka Jaya Palu Power, a power plant operator of the Mpanau plant, Palu, Sulawesi has invited c ...
Tuesday, 08 February 11
BAYAN, KANGAROO EXTEND DUE DILIGENCE
Coal miner controlled by businessman Dato' Low Tuck Kwong PT Bayan Resources Tbk (BYAN) and Australia-listed coal company Kangaroo Resources Limite ...
Tuesday, 08 February 11
DRY BULK: IS THE TIDE TURNING? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
In what could be perceived as a change of market sentiment for the better, the dry bulk industry’s benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) poste ...
Monday, 07 February 11
THE INDONESIAN COAL REFERENCE PRICE HAS JUMPED 13.03 PERCENT IN FEBRUARY 2011
COALspot.com - Indonesia’s Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources has set the February 2011 Indonesian Coal Reference Price for therma ...
Monday, 07 February 11
COAL PRICES ON RISE: DEMAND FROM INDIA AND CHINA - ANALYZED SUNIL K KUMBHAT
INDONESIA IS HEART OF ASIAN COAL BOOM
COALspot.com - Rising demand of Coal from India and China, coupled with global financial recovery, is driv ...
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- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- White Energy Company Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
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