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Wednesday, 02 February 11
HUGE TONNAGE OVERSUPPLY LOOMING FOR DRY BULK MARKET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 With the dry bulk market taking another dive yesterday, to just over 1,000 points (1,084), losing more than 2% on the day, it’s more than obvious that at least until the Chinese market reopens in a couple of weeks (when the Lunar Year Holidays end), things won’t be much different. Yesterday, it was the Supramax’s sector turn to post the most losses, with the relative Baltic Exchange’s Index, the BSI losing 2.46%.
But maybe the most fearful factor coming into play for the dry bulk market is the so talked about tonnage oversupply. According to a recent report from N.Cotzias Shipping Group, the current dry bulk fleet numbers 23,600 ships 614.3mil tons carrying capacity measured in dwt. “There are 3693 ships that are awaiting to be constructed and delivered up until 2014. These new ships will increase the tonnage in terms of carrying capacity by 29% adding 255mil tons of extra dwt. In 2011 we expect 16% or 139mil tons to be delivered and that includes all 2010 slippages. 2012 we expect another 10% or 87mil tons to fall in the active fleet while in 2013 and 2014 only 30mil tons will be added” Cotzias said.
Meanwhile, in the tanker sector, the current fleet is consisted of 12,250 ships of 516.6mil tons dwt. There are 1200 ships that are on order while their total capacity is estimated to be more than 113 mil tons and that is 18% of the current active fleet’s capacity. These new orders are expected to be delivered as follows: 8% or 53mil tons in 2011 included 2010 slippages, 6% in 2012 or 38mil tons, and the remaining 22mil tons or 4% in 2013-2014.
“In the Container market we have 4900 ships active of 159mil tons Gross Tonnage or 14.1mil TEU and we have 590 ships on order of a total of 42.2mil GT, or another 3.85mil TEU of extra carrying capacity. That is a potential 21% increase in the Container carrying ability that is set to happen until 2014. The overall increase will occur 8% or 16.2mil tons GT in 2011 included the 2010 slippages, another 8% in 2012 or an extra 17mil tons gross, 4% increase in 2013 or 7mil tons GT and only 1% in 2014 or 1.7mil tons.
It seems that all sectors are not going to suffer that dramatically from overcapacity. However it is prudent to note that a great deal of capacity increase happened in 2010 already. We had a total of more than 3000 ships reported as delivered during the past year. That is a phenomenally large number. Of these 1200 were Bulkers and General Cargo ships of 76mil tons extra dwt. 650 Tankers including Products and Chemical tankers ships of a total of 42mil tons of dwt were also launched during 2010. In addition 260 container ships of 14.8mil tons GT or 1.4mil TEU were added in 2010. We can make an accurate estimate that the Bulker and Gen. Cargo fleet grew by 14% in 2010 while the tanker fleet grew by 9% and the Container fleet by a mere less 8%” mentioned the shipbroker.
Of course, demand will also play a major role when it comes to sustaining such a large fleet of vessels. As per the World Economic outlook update that was published by the IMF just a week ago, the two-speed recovery continues. In advanced economies, activity has moderated less than expected, but growth remains subdued, unemployment is still high, and renewed stresses in the euro area periphery are contributing to downside risks. In many emerging economies, activity remains buoyant, inflation pressures are emerging, and there are now some signs of overheating, driven in part by strong capital inflows.
Most developing countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, are also growing strongly. Global output is projected to expand by 4½ percent in 2011 an upward revision of about ¼ percentage point relative to the October 2010 World Economic Outlook (WEO). This reflects stronger-than-expected activity in the second half of 2010 as well as new policy initiatives in the United States that will boost activity this year. But downside risks to the recovery remain elevated. The most urgent requirements for robust recovery are comprehensive and rapid actions to overcome sovereign and financial troubles in the euro area and policies to redress fiscal imbalances and to repair and reform financial systems in advanced economies more generally. These need to be complemented with policies that keep overheating pressures in check and facilitate external rebalancing in key emerging economies.
“It is impossible to make any forecasts, We see that world events political or simply acts of god, alter the map or trade and tilt the economic scales that dictate world cargo movements. Suez canal blockage may disrupt shipping lines, no-one knows if such a possibility may occur however if that happens then the CGH will once more see a great deal of traffic through it with price of oil rising to the sky and possibly boosting freight rates to crazy figures. However we should stress that due to high costs imposed by the Suez Canal Authorities and the evergrowing Piracy threats in the GOA area are seriously bringing down canal traffic and as such the effects of a canal closure might prove to be a lot less detrimental on worldwide shipping than initially thought” concluded Cotzias.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Friday, 11 February 11
DRY BULK MARKET HEATING UP ON FRESH CARGO DEMAND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market is on a high this week, with owners of smaller vessels turning their attention towards the spot market, in order to take advanta ...
Thursday, 10 February 11
SUPRA RATES IMPROVED A LITTLE OVER US$ 6K BSS N. CHINA DELIVERY FOR INDO-INDIA AND THAILAND ROUNDS - FEARNBULK
Handy
Atl is still weak with little fresh enquiry and an accumulation of spot tonnage.Owners are reluctant to send tonnage thru Suez due to uncert ...
Thursday, 10 February 11
BUKIT ASAM EXPECTS ABOVE RP 3 TRIO PROFIT
The state-owned coal miner PT Tambang Bukit Asam Tbk (PTBA) expects to reach 2011's net profit above Rp 3 trillion (US$ 336,322,568) from above Rp2 ...
Wednesday, 09 February 11
INDONESIA ALLOWED 60 COAL TRADING COMPANIES TO EXPORT COAL
COALspot.com - A temporary ban imposed on coal traders in January has lifted this week. As of today 60coal trading companies were allowed to resume ...
Tuesday, 08 February 11
INDIA'S SIMHAPURU TARGETS S.AFRICAN COAL - ECONOMIC TIMES
Economic Times reported that, India's Simhapuri Energy , a unit of the Madhucon Group , wants to buy new or existing collieries in South Africa fro ...
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- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Australian Coal Association
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Minerals Council of Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
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