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Thursday, 13 June 13
BIMCO EXPECTS SUBDUED CAPESIZE EARNINGS FOR THE COMING WEEKS - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Bulk is not only about China even though it is a key driver. In this section, we have taken a closer look at the European seaborne coal markets, which is going through some interesting times right now. European coal demand has been in a slump ever since early 2009, where seaborne demand fell by 14 million tons from the first to the second quarter. Import volumes during the last three quarters of 2011 indicated that seaborne coal demand was recovering, but the development stalled somewhat in 2012. Looking on a country basis, the nation with the biggest decline was Italy, with annual seaborne imports being roughly 8 million tons lower today than before the financial crisis. France has also decreased its imports by around 4-5 million tons annually. The United Kingdom and Spain have weakened as well, but these countries seem to be on a rebound, with volumes being slightly below pre-financial crisis levels. The Netherlands and Germany have had relatively stable import numbers since 2005.
The bulk of seaborne coal going to Europe comes from North America, Colombia and Russia. The United States and Colombia have doubled their exports to Europe, while Russia has maintained its share of the European demand. Russian coal is shipped from both Russian and Latvian ports; Colombian coal is primarily shipped from the Caribbean, while US coal is primarily shipped from the Atlantic Coast and the Mexican Gulf. The drop in European seaborne demand for coal did not affect these countries, but rather South Africa. From being the single largest coal exporter to Europe with 52.0 million tons in 2005, the country has become a footnote, with 13.6 million tons in 2011. This represents bad business for the shipping industry, since the sailing distance from Richards Bay to Rotterdam is 98% longer than from Hampton Roads and 61% longer than from Puerto Bolivar.
Although European coal imports didn’t tell a particular positive story for shipping, US exports most certainly did. We expect to publish a story on this within the next couple of weeks.
On a more general note regarding the bulk market, China is expected to increase its imports of wheat, as sub-standard storage facilities have damaged a part of the huge Chinese stockpiles. Traders said that China is seeking to increase imports when global prices are in a slump. Current forward prices indicate that this may happen during the third quarter of 2013. According to Chinese customs statistics, the main exporters of wheat to China are Australia, Canada and United States, the latter two providing significant tonne miles.
Meanwhile, Argentina is exporting record high volumes of grains; CRSL reported that Argentina exported 4.86 million tons of grains in March – the highest number ever for a single month. This gave a spike in Panamax rates with the BPI staying just below the psychological barrier of USD 10,000 per day in March and April, but earnings are now slightly lower at around USD 7,000 per day. In our last report, we predicted that Panamax rates would stay in the USD 5,000-10,000 per day territory; going forward seasonal events like Argentinian exports are likely to provide for the upside ticks.
SUPPLY
New dry bulk deliveries walk the anticipated line and have now reached 29 million DWT. Meanwhile, 11 million DWT have been sold for recycling, which brings the year-to-date fleet growth up to 2.8%. The inflow is seen primarily in the Panamax segment, where 136 (in 2012: 162) new vessels are keeping Panamax fleet growth high. Simultaneously, the Capesize segment only saw 48 (in 2012: 115) new vessels coming on stream, eventually easing some of the pain from the current overcapacity.
Average age and size of the demolished tonnage is 28 years and 60,000 DWT. In line with the development seen in the last couple of years, the average age is still trending down – whereas the average size is essentially unchanged. BIMCO forecasts a slightly lower level of tonnage being demolished in 2013 as compared to last year; however, it is still going to be the second-largest year on record. The solid level of demolition prices will inspire owners to consider recycling, rather than trading their old tonnage in a very volatile market without certainty of sustainable freight rates and against more energy efficient tonnage.
As regards the orderbook, it’s also moving in the right direction in spite of the recent flurry of new orders for more fuel-efficient tonnage. During the past 10 weeks the number of newbuilding orders in the book has come down from 1,599 to 1,548. Finally, on the ordering side, strong interest in Capesizes remains evident, with 62 new orders in 2013. A total of 18 million DWT has been ordered in the year so far, with March and April seeing total new orders placed in excess of 4.5 million DWT each month.
OUTLOOK
The Summer lull is creeping up on dry bulk shipping demand following the successful South American grain season. Fortunately, solid demand is keeping spirits up in the dry bulk industry, while the severe extent of overcapacity is pushing the date for a full-blown recovery of earnings into a somewhat distant future. For now the market is getting more and more spot focused, as no owners want to commit tonnage for longer terms at offered levels. Don’t look at the paper market for any support, because you won’t find it. FFA indications (10/6) for Capesize tonnage go to the tune of USD per day: Q3-13, Q4-13, Cal 14 and Cal 15: 7,550, 12,000, 11,450 and 13,700 and for Supramax the indications go as follows in USD per day for the same dates: 7,900, 8,400, 8,600 and 8,900. USD per day in the spot market (10/6): Capesize for 5,571 and Supramax for 9,307.
Expect the unexpected from the dry bulk market seems to be the message passed on in recent years – and today is no different, as Handysize tonnage is earning USD 10,900 per day on an Atlantic round voyage whereas Capesizes are struggling to get a 1 year T/C fixed at USD 10,500 per day if at all. With respect to freight rates for Panamax and Supramax tonnage, they have lost ground since the beginning of March.
To sum up, our forecast for the coming 6 weeks: BIMCO holds the view that Capesize TC average rates are expected to remain subdued around USD 4,500-7,500 per day. Panamax is expected to stay in the USD 4,500-8,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 7,000-10,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-8,500 per day.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 28 September 21
THE MAIDEN EDITION OF DIVE TECHNOLOGY SUMMIT 2021 CONCLUDES SUCCESSFULLY
Press Release: DIVE TECHNOLOGY SUMMIT 2021, a one-day conference on the recent technological advancements in the Industrial Diving industry conclud ...
Monday, 27 September 21
CHINESE COAL FIRMS MEET TO ADDRESS WINTER SUPPLY CHALLENGES - CNBC
Major Chinese coal producers are trying to resolve supply shortages and curb price rises as the country’s winter consumption peak approaches, ...
Saturday, 25 September 21
HIGH STAKES FOR ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK’S AMBITIOUS COAL POWER RETIREMENT PLAN - IEEFA
Implementation challenges could block funding for other equally important high impact clean energy funding strategies
In the lead up ...
Thursday, 23 September 21
LONGER COAL CONTRACTS MAY REIN IN PRICES - ECNS
In China’s coal sector that has been marred recently by price surges, regional authorities and related enterprises should ensure the fuel con ...
Thursday, 23 September 21
BALTIC INDEX HITS 12-YEAR PEAK ON FIRMER VESSELS RATES - REUTERS
The Baltic Exchange’s main dry bulk sea freight index rose for a fourth straight session on Wednesday to a 12-year high, buoyed by higher rat ...
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- Minerals Council of Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
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