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Thursday, 13 June 13
BIMCO EXPECTS SUBDUED CAPESIZE EARNINGS FOR THE COMING WEEKS - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Bulk is not only about China even though it is a key driver. In this section, we have taken a closer look at the European seaborne coal markets, which is going through some interesting times right now. European coal demand has been in a slump ever since early 2009, where seaborne demand fell by 14 million tons from the first to the second quarter. Import volumes during the last three quarters of 2011 indicated that seaborne coal demand was recovering, but the development stalled somewhat in 2012. Looking on a country basis, the nation with the biggest decline was Italy, with annual seaborne imports being roughly 8 million tons lower today than before the financial crisis. France has also decreased its imports by around 4-5 million tons annually. The United Kingdom and Spain have weakened as well, but these countries seem to be on a rebound, with volumes being slightly below pre-financial crisis levels. The Netherlands and Germany have had relatively stable import numbers since 2005.
The bulk of seaborne coal going to Europe comes from North America, Colombia and Russia. The United States and Colombia have doubled their exports to Europe, while Russia has maintained its share of the European demand. Russian coal is shipped from both Russian and Latvian ports; Colombian coal is primarily shipped from the Caribbean, while US coal is primarily shipped from the Atlantic Coast and the Mexican Gulf. The drop in European seaborne demand for coal did not affect these countries, but rather South Africa. From being the single largest coal exporter to Europe with 52.0 million tons in 2005, the country has become a footnote, with 13.6 million tons in 2011. This represents bad business for the shipping industry, since the sailing distance from Richards Bay to Rotterdam is 98% longer than from Hampton Roads and 61% longer than from Puerto Bolivar.
Although European coal imports didn’t tell a particular positive story for shipping, US exports most certainly did. We expect to publish a story on this within the next couple of weeks.
On a more general note regarding the bulk market, China is expected to increase its imports of wheat, as sub-standard storage facilities have damaged a part of the huge Chinese stockpiles. Traders said that China is seeking to increase imports when global prices are in a slump. Current forward prices indicate that this may happen during the third quarter of 2013. According to Chinese customs statistics, the main exporters of wheat to China are Australia, Canada and United States, the latter two providing significant tonne miles.
Meanwhile, Argentina is exporting record high volumes of grains; CRSL reported that Argentina exported 4.86 million tons of grains in March – the highest number ever for a single month. This gave a spike in Panamax rates with the BPI staying just below the psychological barrier of USD 10,000 per day in March and April, but earnings are now slightly lower at around USD 7,000 per day. In our last report, we predicted that Panamax rates would stay in the USD 5,000-10,000 per day territory; going forward seasonal events like Argentinian exports are likely to provide for the upside ticks.
SUPPLY
New dry bulk deliveries walk the anticipated line and have now reached 29 million DWT. Meanwhile, 11 million DWT have been sold for recycling, which brings the year-to-date fleet growth up to 2.8%. The inflow is seen primarily in the Panamax segment, where 136 (in 2012: 162) new vessels are keeping Panamax fleet growth high. Simultaneously, the Capesize segment only saw 48 (in 2012: 115) new vessels coming on stream, eventually easing some of the pain from the current overcapacity.
Average age and size of the demolished tonnage is 28 years and 60,000 DWT. In line with the development seen in the last couple of years, the average age is still trending down – whereas the average size is essentially unchanged. BIMCO forecasts a slightly lower level of tonnage being demolished in 2013 as compared to last year; however, it is still going to be the second-largest year on record. The solid level of demolition prices will inspire owners to consider recycling, rather than trading their old tonnage in a very volatile market without certainty of sustainable freight rates and against more energy efficient tonnage.
As regards the orderbook, it’s also moving in the right direction in spite of the recent flurry of new orders for more fuel-efficient tonnage. During the past 10 weeks the number of newbuilding orders in the book has come down from 1,599 to 1,548. Finally, on the ordering side, strong interest in Capesizes remains evident, with 62 new orders in 2013. A total of 18 million DWT has been ordered in the year so far, with March and April seeing total new orders placed in excess of 4.5 million DWT each month.
OUTLOOK
The Summer lull is creeping up on dry bulk shipping demand following the successful South American grain season. Fortunately, solid demand is keeping spirits up in the dry bulk industry, while the severe extent of overcapacity is pushing the date for a full-blown recovery of earnings into a somewhat distant future. For now the market is getting more and more spot focused, as no owners want to commit tonnage for longer terms at offered levels. Don’t look at the paper market for any support, because you won’t find it. FFA indications (10/6) for Capesize tonnage go to the tune of USD per day: Q3-13, Q4-13, Cal 14 and Cal 15: 7,550, 12,000, 11,450 and 13,700 and for Supramax the indications go as follows in USD per day for the same dates: 7,900, 8,400, 8,600 and 8,900. USD per day in the spot market (10/6): Capesize for 5,571 and Supramax for 9,307.
Expect the unexpected from the dry bulk market seems to be the message passed on in recent years – and today is no different, as Handysize tonnage is earning USD 10,900 per day on an Atlantic round voyage whereas Capesizes are struggling to get a 1 year T/C fixed at USD 10,500 per day if at all. With respect to freight rates for Panamax and Supramax tonnage, they have lost ground since the beginning of March.
To sum up, our forecast for the coming 6 weeks: BIMCO holds the view that Capesize TC average rates are expected to remain subdued around USD 4,500-7,500 per day. Panamax is expected to stay in the USD 4,500-8,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 7,000-10,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-8,500 per day.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping News
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Monday, 11 October 21
COAL ABANDONMENT IN POWER GENERATION PROMOTED GAS DEMAND GROWTH IN EUROPE - TOP MANAGER: TASS
Accelerated abandonment of coal in power generation and the overall recovery of economic activity facilitated gas demand growth in Europe and led t ...
Saturday, 09 October 21
CHINA POWER CUTS: COAL MINERS ORDERED TO BOOST OUTPUT, SAY REPORTS - BBC
Beijing has reportedly ordered China’s coal mines to boost output as an energy shortage across the country has seen millions of homes and bus ...
Friday, 08 October 21
SEPTEMBER CRUDE OIL TANKER DEMOLISHING HITS 39-MONTHS HIGH AT 1.9M DWT - PETER SAND
Has the lid finally come off for crude oil tanker demolition in 2021? If judged by the 1.9m DWT of capacity that was removed in September, the answ ...
Friday, 08 October 21
COAL SHORTAGE MAY LEAD TO RISE IN STEEL PRICES IN COMING MONTHS: JSPL MD - PTI
Steel prices are expected to increase in the coming months as companies are buying coal at three times the rates a month ago, said a top industry e ...
Wednesday, 06 October 21
INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE: ANOTHER MONTH, ANOTHER RALLY
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference in a steep climb for most of second and third quarters of 2021 as it reached a pinnacle of $161.63 Oc ...
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- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Coal Association
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Minerals Council of Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PTC India Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
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