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Thursday, 13 June 13
BIMCO EXPECTS SUBDUED CAPESIZE EARNINGS FOR THE COMING WEEKS - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Bulk is not only about China even though it is a key driver. In this section, we have taken a closer look at the European seaborne coal markets, which is going through some interesting times right now. European coal demand has been in a slump ever since early 2009, where seaborne demand fell by 14 million tons from the first to the second quarter. Import volumes during the last three quarters of 2011 indicated that seaborne coal demand was recovering, but the development stalled somewhat in 2012. Looking on a country basis, the nation with the biggest decline was Italy, with annual seaborne imports being roughly 8 million tons lower today than before the financial crisis. France has also decreased its imports by around 4-5 million tons annually. The United Kingdom and Spain have weakened as well, but these countries seem to be on a rebound, with volumes being slightly below pre-financial crisis levels. The Netherlands and Germany have had relatively stable import numbers since 2005.
The bulk of seaborne coal going to Europe comes from North America, Colombia and Russia. The United States and Colombia have doubled their exports to Europe, while Russia has maintained its share of the European demand. Russian coal is shipped from both Russian and Latvian ports; Colombian coal is primarily shipped from the Caribbean, while US coal is primarily shipped from the Atlantic Coast and the Mexican Gulf. The drop in European seaborne demand for coal did not affect these countries, but rather South Africa. From being the single largest coal exporter to Europe with 52.0 million tons in 2005, the country has become a footnote, with 13.6 million tons in 2011. This represents bad business for the shipping industry, since the sailing distance from Richards Bay to Rotterdam is 98% longer than from Hampton Roads and 61% longer than from Puerto Bolivar.
Although European coal imports didn’t tell a particular positive story for shipping, US exports most certainly did. We expect to publish a story on this within the next couple of weeks.
On a more general note regarding the bulk market, China is expected to increase its imports of wheat, as sub-standard storage facilities have damaged a part of the huge Chinese stockpiles. Traders said that China is seeking to increase imports when global prices are in a slump. Current forward prices indicate that this may happen during the third quarter of 2013. According to Chinese customs statistics, the main exporters of wheat to China are Australia, Canada and United States, the latter two providing significant tonne miles.
Meanwhile, Argentina is exporting record high volumes of grains; CRSL reported that Argentina exported 4.86 million tons of grains in March – the highest number ever for a single month. This gave a spike in Panamax rates with the BPI staying just below the psychological barrier of USD 10,000 per day in March and April, but earnings are now slightly lower at around USD 7,000 per day. In our last report, we predicted that Panamax rates would stay in the USD 5,000-10,000 per day territory; going forward seasonal events like Argentinian exports are likely to provide for the upside ticks.
SUPPLY
New dry bulk deliveries walk the anticipated line and have now reached 29 million DWT. Meanwhile, 11 million DWT have been sold for recycling, which brings the year-to-date fleet growth up to 2.8%. The inflow is seen primarily in the Panamax segment, where 136 (in 2012: 162) new vessels are keeping Panamax fleet growth high. Simultaneously, the Capesize segment only saw 48 (in 2012: 115) new vessels coming on stream, eventually easing some of the pain from the current overcapacity.
Average age and size of the demolished tonnage is 28 years and 60,000 DWT. In line with the development seen in the last couple of years, the average age is still trending down – whereas the average size is essentially unchanged. BIMCO forecasts a slightly lower level of tonnage being demolished in 2013 as compared to last year; however, it is still going to be the second-largest year on record. The solid level of demolition prices will inspire owners to consider recycling, rather than trading their old tonnage in a very volatile market without certainty of sustainable freight rates and against more energy efficient tonnage.
As regards the orderbook, it’s also moving in the right direction in spite of the recent flurry of new orders for more fuel-efficient tonnage. During the past 10 weeks the number of newbuilding orders in the book has come down from 1,599 to 1,548. Finally, on the ordering side, strong interest in Capesizes remains evident, with 62 new orders in 2013. A total of 18 million DWT has been ordered in the year so far, with March and April seeing total new orders placed in excess of 4.5 million DWT each month.
OUTLOOK
The Summer lull is creeping up on dry bulk shipping demand following the successful South American grain season. Fortunately, solid demand is keeping spirits up in the dry bulk industry, while the severe extent of overcapacity is pushing the date for a full-blown recovery of earnings into a somewhat distant future. For now the market is getting more and more spot focused, as no owners want to commit tonnage for longer terms at offered levels. Don’t look at the paper market for any support, because you won’t find it. FFA indications (10/6) for Capesize tonnage go to the tune of USD per day: Q3-13, Q4-13, Cal 14 and Cal 15: 7,550, 12,000, 11,450 and 13,700 and for Supramax the indications go as follows in USD per day for the same dates: 7,900, 8,400, 8,600 and 8,900. USD per day in the spot market (10/6): Capesize for 5,571 and Supramax for 9,307.
Expect the unexpected from the dry bulk market seems to be the message passed on in recent years – and today is no different, as Handysize tonnage is earning USD 10,900 per day on an Atlantic round voyage whereas Capesizes are struggling to get a 1 year T/C fixed at USD 10,500 per day if at all. With respect to freight rates for Panamax and Supramax tonnage, they have lost ground since the beginning of March.
To sum up, our forecast for the coming 6 weeks: BIMCO holds the view that Capesize TC average rates are expected to remain subdued around USD 4,500-7,500 per day. Panamax is expected to stay in the USD 4,500-8,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 7,000-10,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-8,500 per day.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping News
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Saturday, 11 September 21
CIL STEPS UP SUPPLY COAL TO POWER SECTOR; PER-DAY AVERAGE 20 PC HIGHER THAN LAST YEAR - PTI
State-owned CIL on Friday said it has stepped up the supply of coal to the power sector in the first eight days of the current month, with an avera ...
Saturday, 11 September 21
RECORD CHINESE COAL FUTURES SIGNAL NEED TO BOOST OUTPUT - REUTERS
China’s coal prices have climbed to a record high, signaling the need for more production in the short term, even as the government tries to ...
Saturday, 11 September 21
IN 2022, EIA EXPECTS U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TO INCREASE BY 47 MMST TO 648 MMST
U.S. Coal production accordng to EIA's forecast, totals 601 million short tons (MMst) in 2021, 66 MMst more than in 2020, EIA's Short-Term ...
Wednesday, 08 September 21
FITCH RATINGS RAISES THERMAL COAL PRICE ASSUMPTIONS ON TIGHT SUPPLY
Fitch Ratings has increased all its Qinhuangdao 5,500kcal/kg price assumptions and short- and medium-term Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg price assumptions ...
Wednesday, 08 September 21
COAL IS STILL KING; INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE ABOVE $150 FOR FIRST TIME IN HISTORY
COALspot.com: The Indonesian Coal Price Reference rose dramatically from US$ 127.05 in February 2011, to a peak of US$ 150.03 in September 2021, be ...
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
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