We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Thursday, 13 June 13
BIMCO EXPECTS SUBDUED CAPESIZE EARNINGS FOR THE COMING WEEKS - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Bulk is not only about China even though it is a key driver. In this section, we have taken a closer look at the European seaborne coal markets, which is going through some interesting times right now. European coal demand has been in a slump ever since early 2009, where seaborne demand fell by 14 million tons from the first to the second quarter. Import volumes during the last three quarters of 2011 indicated that seaborne coal demand was recovering, but the development stalled somewhat in 2012. Looking on a country basis, the nation with the biggest decline was Italy, with annual seaborne imports being roughly 8 million tons lower today than before the financial crisis. France has also decreased its imports by around 4-5 million tons annually. The United Kingdom and Spain have weakened as well, but these countries seem to be on a rebound, with volumes being slightly below pre-financial crisis levels. The Netherlands and Germany have had relatively stable import numbers since 2005.
The bulk of seaborne coal going to Europe comes from North America, Colombia and Russia. The United States and Colombia have doubled their exports to Europe, while Russia has maintained its share of the European demand. Russian coal is shipped from both Russian and Latvian ports; Colombian coal is primarily shipped from the Caribbean, while US coal is primarily shipped from the Atlantic Coast and the Mexican Gulf. The drop in European seaborne demand for coal did not affect these countries, but rather South Africa. From being the single largest coal exporter to Europe with 52.0 million tons in 2005, the country has become a footnote, with 13.6 million tons in 2011. This represents bad business for the shipping industry, since the sailing distance from Richards Bay to Rotterdam is 98% longer than from Hampton Roads and 61% longer than from Puerto Bolivar.
Although European coal imports didn’t tell a particular positive story for shipping, US exports most certainly did. We expect to publish a story on this within the next couple of weeks.
On a more general note regarding the bulk market, China is expected to increase its imports of wheat, as sub-standard storage facilities have damaged a part of the huge Chinese stockpiles. Traders said that China is seeking to increase imports when global prices are in a slump. Current forward prices indicate that this may happen during the third quarter of 2013. According to Chinese customs statistics, the main exporters of wheat to China are Australia, Canada and United States, the latter two providing significant tonne miles.
Meanwhile, Argentina is exporting record high volumes of grains; CRSL reported that Argentina exported 4.86 million tons of grains in March – the highest number ever for a single month. This gave a spike in Panamax rates with the BPI staying just below the psychological barrier of USD 10,000 per day in March and April, but earnings are now slightly lower at around USD 7,000 per day. In our last report, we predicted that Panamax rates would stay in the USD 5,000-10,000 per day territory; going forward seasonal events like Argentinian exports are likely to provide for the upside ticks.
SUPPLY
New dry bulk deliveries walk the anticipated line and have now reached 29 million DWT. Meanwhile, 11 million DWT have been sold for recycling, which brings the year-to-date fleet growth up to 2.8%. The inflow is seen primarily in the Panamax segment, where 136 (in 2012: 162) new vessels are keeping Panamax fleet growth high. Simultaneously, the Capesize segment only saw 48 (in 2012: 115) new vessels coming on stream, eventually easing some of the pain from the current overcapacity.
Average age and size of the demolished tonnage is 28 years and 60,000 DWT. In line with the development seen in the last couple of years, the average age is still trending down – whereas the average size is essentially unchanged. BIMCO forecasts a slightly lower level of tonnage being demolished in 2013 as compared to last year; however, it is still going to be the second-largest year on record. The solid level of demolition prices will inspire owners to consider recycling, rather than trading their old tonnage in a very volatile market without certainty of sustainable freight rates and against more energy efficient tonnage.
As regards the orderbook, it’s also moving in the right direction in spite of the recent flurry of new orders for more fuel-efficient tonnage. During the past 10 weeks the number of newbuilding orders in the book has come down from 1,599 to 1,548. Finally, on the ordering side, strong interest in Capesizes remains evident, with 62 new orders in 2013. A total of 18 million DWT has been ordered in the year so far, with March and April seeing total new orders placed in excess of 4.5 million DWT each month.
OUTLOOK
The Summer lull is creeping up on dry bulk shipping demand following the successful South American grain season. Fortunately, solid demand is keeping spirits up in the dry bulk industry, while the severe extent of overcapacity is pushing the date for a full-blown recovery of earnings into a somewhat distant future. For now the market is getting more and more spot focused, as no owners want to commit tonnage for longer terms at offered levels. Don’t look at the paper market for any support, because you won’t find it. FFA indications (10/6) for Capesize tonnage go to the tune of USD per day: Q3-13, Q4-13, Cal 14 and Cal 15: 7,550, 12,000, 11,450 and 13,700 and for Supramax the indications go as follows in USD per day for the same dates: 7,900, 8,400, 8,600 and 8,900. USD per day in the spot market (10/6): Capesize for 5,571 and Supramax for 9,307.
Expect the unexpected from the dry bulk market seems to be the message passed on in recent years – and today is no different, as Handysize tonnage is earning USD 10,900 per day on an Atlantic round voyage whereas Capesizes are struggling to get a 1 year T/C fixed at USD 10,500 per day if at all. With respect to freight rates for Panamax and Supramax tonnage, they have lost ground since the beginning of March.
To sum up, our forecast for the coming 6 weeks: BIMCO holds the view that Capesize TC average rates are expected to remain subdued around USD 4,500-7,500 per day. Panamax is expected to stay in the USD 4,500-8,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 7,000-10,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-8,500 per day.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping News
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Thursday, 23 September 21
RECORD-HIGH GAS PRICES AFFECT MANY EUROPEAN CORPORATE SECTORS - FITCH RATINGS
Record-high natural gas prices are putting pressure on supply chains of many European corporate sectors, including non-integrated energy suppliers, ...
Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of col ...
Tuesday, 21 September 21
CHINESE COAL IMPORTS FROM AUSTRALIA DROP 98.6% AS RESTRICTIONS BITE - BIMCO
In the first seven months of the year Chinese coal imports from Australia have totalled just 780,000 tonnes as Chinese restrictions on Australian c ...
Tuesday, 21 September 21
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT RESUMES GROWTH IN AUGUST - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output rose 0.8 percent year on year to 340 million tonnes last month, official data showed.
The growth rate ...
Wednesday, 15 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Following the oil price sell off during most of August, partly triggered by oil demand fears amid the delta COVID variant, oil prices have resumed ...
|
|
|
Showing 481 to 485 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Planning Commission, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
|
| |
| |
|
