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Thursday, 13 June 13
BIMCO EXPECTS SUBDUED CAPESIZE EARNINGS FOR THE COMING WEEKS - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Bulk is not only about China even though it is a key driver. In this section, we have taken a closer look at the European seaborne coal markets, which is going through some interesting times right now. European coal demand has been in a slump ever since early 2009, where seaborne demand fell by 14 million tons from the first to the second quarter. Import volumes during the last three quarters of 2011 indicated that seaborne coal demand was recovering, but the development stalled somewhat in 2012. Looking on a country basis, the nation with the biggest decline was Italy, with annual seaborne imports being roughly 8 million tons lower today than before the financial crisis. France has also decreased its imports by around 4-5 million tons annually. The United Kingdom and Spain have weakened as well, but these countries seem to be on a rebound, with volumes being slightly below pre-financial crisis levels. The Netherlands and Germany have had relatively stable import numbers since 2005.
The bulk of seaborne coal going to Europe comes from North America, Colombia and Russia. The United States and Colombia have doubled their exports to Europe, while Russia has maintained its share of the European demand. Russian coal is shipped from both Russian and Latvian ports; Colombian coal is primarily shipped from the Caribbean, while US coal is primarily shipped from the Atlantic Coast and the Mexican Gulf. The drop in European seaborne demand for coal did not affect these countries, but rather South Africa. From being the single largest coal exporter to Europe with 52.0 million tons in 2005, the country has become a footnote, with 13.6 million tons in 2011. This represents bad business for the shipping industry, since the sailing distance from Richards Bay to Rotterdam is 98% longer than from Hampton Roads and 61% longer than from Puerto Bolivar.
Although European coal imports didn’t tell a particular positive story for shipping, US exports most certainly did. We expect to publish a story on this within the next couple of weeks.
On a more general note regarding the bulk market, China is expected to increase its imports of wheat, as sub-standard storage facilities have damaged a part of the huge Chinese stockpiles. Traders said that China is seeking to increase imports when global prices are in a slump. Current forward prices indicate that this may happen during the third quarter of 2013. According to Chinese customs statistics, the main exporters of wheat to China are Australia, Canada and United States, the latter two providing significant tonne miles.
Meanwhile, Argentina is exporting record high volumes of grains; CRSL reported that Argentina exported 4.86 million tons of grains in March – the highest number ever for a single month. This gave a spike in Panamax rates with the BPI staying just below the psychological barrier of USD 10,000 per day in March and April, but earnings are now slightly lower at around USD 7,000 per day. In our last report, we predicted that Panamax rates would stay in the USD 5,000-10,000 per day territory; going forward seasonal events like Argentinian exports are likely to provide for the upside ticks.
SUPPLY
New dry bulk deliveries walk the anticipated line and have now reached 29 million DWT. Meanwhile, 11 million DWT have been sold for recycling, which brings the year-to-date fleet growth up to 2.8%. The inflow is seen primarily in the Panamax segment, where 136 (in 2012: 162) new vessels are keeping Panamax fleet growth high. Simultaneously, the Capesize segment only saw 48 (in 2012: 115) new vessels coming on stream, eventually easing some of the pain from the current overcapacity.
Average age and size of the demolished tonnage is 28 years and 60,000 DWT. In line with the development seen in the last couple of years, the average age is still trending down – whereas the average size is essentially unchanged. BIMCO forecasts a slightly lower level of tonnage being demolished in 2013 as compared to last year; however, it is still going to be the second-largest year on record. The solid level of demolition prices will inspire owners to consider recycling, rather than trading their old tonnage in a very volatile market without certainty of sustainable freight rates and against more energy efficient tonnage.
As regards the orderbook, it’s also moving in the right direction in spite of the recent flurry of new orders for more fuel-efficient tonnage. During the past 10 weeks the number of newbuilding orders in the book has come down from 1,599 to 1,548. Finally, on the ordering side, strong interest in Capesizes remains evident, with 62 new orders in 2013. A total of 18 million DWT has been ordered in the year so far, with March and April seeing total new orders placed in excess of 4.5 million DWT each month.
OUTLOOK
The Summer lull is creeping up on dry bulk shipping demand following the successful South American grain season. Fortunately, solid demand is keeping spirits up in the dry bulk industry, while the severe extent of overcapacity is pushing the date for a full-blown recovery of earnings into a somewhat distant future. For now the market is getting more and more spot focused, as no owners want to commit tonnage for longer terms at offered levels. Don’t look at the paper market for any support, because you won’t find it. FFA indications (10/6) for Capesize tonnage go to the tune of USD per day: Q3-13, Q4-13, Cal 14 and Cal 15: 7,550, 12,000, 11,450 and 13,700 and for Supramax the indications go as follows in USD per day for the same dates: 7,900, 8,400, 8,600 and 8,900. USD per day in the spot market (10/6): Capesize for 5,571 and Supramax for 9,307.
Expect the unexpected from the dry bulk market seems to be the message passed on in recent years – and today is no different, as Handysize tonnage is earning USD 10,900 per day on an Atlantic round voyage whereas Capesizes are struggling to get a 1 year T/C fixed at USD 10,500 per day if at all. With respect to freight rates for Panamax and Supramax tonnage, they have lost ground since the beginning of March.
To sum up, our forecast for the coming 6 weeks: BIMCO holds the view that Capesize TC average rates are expected to remain subdued around USD 4,500-7,500 per day. Panamax is expected to stay in the USD 4,500-8,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 7,000-10,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-8,500 per day.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 16 November 21
INDONESIA’S 2022 COAL USE FOR POWER GENERATION SET TO RISE 3% - REUTERS
Indonesia’s coal consumption for power generation is likely to rise by 3.1% next year compared to 2021, the head of the country’s state ...
Tuesday, 16 November 21
CHINA'S MONTHLY COAL OUTPUT RISES TO HIGHEST SINCE MARCH 2015 - REUTERS
China’s October coal output rose to the highest since at least March 2015, after Beijing approved a raft of coal mine expansions to tame reco ...
Friday, 12 November 21
RUSSIA-INDIA COKING COAL DEAL UNLIKELY TO IMPACT PANAMAX SHIPPING - DREWRY
Russia and India have recently entered into an agreement whereby Russia will supply up to 40 million tonnes of coking coal to India every year. Dre ...
Friday, 12 November 21
ASIA COAL POWER PIPELINE TO SHRINK BY TWO THIRDS AFTER CHINA FINANCE CUT - REUTERS
Asia’s pipeline of proposed coal-fired power plants is expected to shrink from 65 gigawatts to 22 gigawatts following China’s pledge to ...
Friday, 12 November 21
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE TOPS $215 A TON; THE HIGHEST COAL PRICE IN HISTORY
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference in a steep climb for most of second half of 2021 as it reached a pinnacle of $215.01 in November 2021 ...
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- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
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