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Thursday, 13 June 13
BIMCO EXPECTS SUBDUED CAPESIZE EARNINGS FOR THE COMING WEEKS - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Bulk is not only about China even though it is a key driver. In this section, we have taken a closer look at the European seaborne coal markets, which is going through some interesting times right now. European coal demand has been in a slump ever since early 2009, where seaborne demand fell by 14 million tons from the first to the second quarter. Import volumes during the last three quarters of 2011 indicated that seaborne coal demand was recovering, but the development stalled somewhat in 2012. Looking on a country basis, the nation with the biggest decline was Italy, with annual seaborne imports being roughly 8 million tons lower today than before the financial crisis. France has also decreased its imports by around 4-5 million tons annually. The United Kingdom and Spain have weakened as well, but these countries seem to be on a rebound, with volumes being slightly below pre-financial crisis levels. The Netherlands and Germany have had relatively stable import numbers since 2005.
The bulk of seaborne coal going to Europe comes from North America, Colombia and Russia. The United States and Colombia have doubled their exports to Europe, while Russia has maintained its share of the European demand. Russian coal is shipped from both Russian and Latvian ports; Colombian coal is primarily shipped from the Caribbean, while US coal is primarily shipped from the Atlantic Coast and the Mexican Gulf. The drop in European seaborne demand for coal did not affect these countries, but rather South Africa. From being the single largest coal exporter to Europe with 52.0 million tons in 2005, the country has become a footnote, with 13.6 million tons in 2011. This represents bad business for the shipping industry, since the sailing distance from Richards Bay to Rotterdam is 98% longer than from Hampton Roads and 61% longer than from Puerto Bolivar.
Although European coal imports didn’t tell a particular positive story for shipping, US exports most certainly did. We expect to publish a story on this within the next couple of weeks.
On a more general note regarding the bulk market, China is expected to increase its imports of wheat, as sub-standard storage facilities have damaged a part of the huge Chinese stockpiles. Traders said that China is seeking to increase imports when global prices are in a slump. Current forward prices indicate that this may happen during the third quarter of 2013. According to Chinese customs statistics, the main exporters of wheat to China are Australia, Canada and United States, the latter two providing significant tonne miles.
Meanwhile, Argentina is exporting record high volumes of grains; CRSL reported that Argentina exported 4.86 million tons of grains in March – the highest number ever for a single month. This gave a spike in Panamax rates with the BPI staying just below the psychological barrier of USD 10,000 per day in March and April, but earnings are now slightly lower at around USD 7,000 per day. In our last report, we predicted that Panamax rates would stay in the USD 5,000-10,000 per day territory; going forward seasonal events like Argentinian exports are likely to provide for the upside ticks.
SUPPLY
New dry bulk deliveries walk the anticipated line and have now reached 29 million DWT. Meanwhile, 11 million DWT have been sold for recycling, which brings the year-to-date fleet growth up to 2.8%. The inflow is seen primarily in the Panamax segment, where 136 (in 2012: 162) new vessels are keeping Panamax fleet growth high. Simultaneously, the Capesize segment only saw 48 (in 2012: 115) new vessels coming on stream, eventually easing some of the pain from the current overcapacity.
Average age and size of the demolished tonnage is 28 years and 60,000 DWT. In line with the development seen in the last couple of years, the average age is still trending down – whereas the average size is essentially unchanged. BIMCO forecasts a slightly lower level of tonnage being demolished in 2013 as compared to last year; however, it is still going to be the second-largest year on record. The solid level of demolition prices will inspire owners to consider recycling, rather than trading their old tonnage in a very volatile market without certainty of sustainable freight rates and against more energy efficient tonnage.
As regards the orderbook, it’s also moving in the right direction in spite of the recent flurry of new orders for more fuel-efficient tonnage. During the past 10 weeks the number of newbuilding orders in the book has come down from 1,599 to 1,548. Finally, on the ordering side, strong interest in Capesizes remains evident, with 62 new orders in 2013. A total of 18 million DWT has been ordered in the year so far, with March and April seeing total new orders placed in excess of 4.5 million DWT each month.
OUTLOOK
The Summer lull is creeping up on dry bulk shipping demand following the successful South American grain season. Fortunately, solid demand is keeping spirits up in the dry bulk industry, while the severe extent of overcapacity is pushing the date for a full-blown recovery of earnings into a somewhat distant future. For now the market is getting more and more spot focused, as no owners want to commit tonnage for longer terms at offered levels. Don’t look at the paper market for any support, because you won’t find it. FFA indications (10/6) for Capesize tonnage go to the tune of USD per day: Q3-13, Q4-13, Cal 14 and Cal 15: 7,550, 12,000, 11,450 and 13,700 and for Supramax the indications go as follows in USD per day for the same dates: 7,900, 8,400, 8,600 and 8,900. USD per day in the spot market (10/6): Capesize for 5,571 and Supramax for 9,307.
Expect the unexpected from the dry bulk market seems to be the message passed on in recent years – and today is no different, as Handysize tonnage is earning USD 10,900 per day on an Atlantic round voyage whereas Capesizes are struggling to get a 1 year T/C fixed at USD 10,500 per day if at all. With respect to freight rates for Panamax and Supramax tonnage, they have lost ground since the beginning of March.
To sum up, our forecast for the coming 6 weeks: BIMCO holds the view that Capesize TC average rates are expected to remain subdued around USD 4,500-7,500 per day. Panamax is expected to stay in the USD 4,500-8,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 7,000-10,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-8,500 per day.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping News
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Thursday, 04 November 21
FASTER DECARBONISATION: BACK TO BASICS FOR THE MINING INDUSTRY? - WOOD MACKENZIE
To the uninitiated, rugby is a technical and complicated game. As young schoolboys it was all a wee bit confusing and we invariably ended up on the ...
Wednesday, 03 November 21
CHINA TO LAUNCH NEW DATA MONITORING SYSTEM, TARGETING COAL MARKET SPECULATION, HOARDING - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s top economic planner announced on Sunday a new data system for supervising the implementation of medium- and long-term contracts of c ...
Wednesday, 03 November 21
CHINA’S STATE PLANNER SAYS COAL SUPPLY IMPROVING, PRICES STABILISING - REUTERS
China’s coal supply situation has seen significant improvement with joint efforts from coal producers, logistics and downstream users, while ...
Wednesday, 03 November 21
HIGHER COKING COAL PRICES TO PARE PROFITABILITY OF STEELMAKERS IN SECOND HALF OF FY22 - CRISIL RATINGS
The operating margin of primary steelmakers will reduce by a third to 24-26% in the second half of this fiscal versus the first half as input cost ...
Wednesday, 03 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
November is here and soon the all time seasonal favorite “all I want or Christmas is you” by Mariah Carey will be played in radio stati ...
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- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
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