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Thursday, 13 June 13
BIMCO EXPECTS SUBDUED CAPESIZE EARNINGS FOR THE COMING WEEKS - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Bulk is not only about China even though it is a key driver. In this section, we have taken a closer look at the European seaborne coal markets, which is going through some interesting times right now. European coal demand has been in a slump ever since early 2009, where seaborne demand fell by 14 million tons from the first to the second quarter. Import volumes during the last three quarters of 2011 indicated that seaborne coal demand was recovering, but the development stalled somewhat in 2012. Looking on a country basis, the nation with the biggest decline was Italy, with annual seaborne imports being roughly 8 million tons lower today than before the financial crisis. France has also decreased its imports by around 4-5 million tons annually. The United Kingdom and Spain have weakened as well, but these countries seem to be on a rebound, with volumes being slightly below pre-financial crisis levels. The Netherlands and Germany have had relatively stable import numbers since 2005.
The bulk of seaborne coal going to Europe comes from North America, Colombia and Russia. The United States and Colombia have doubled their exports to Europe, while Russia has maintained its share of the European demand. Russian coal is shipped from both Russian and Latvian ports; Colombian coal is primarily shipped from the Caribbean, while US coal is primarily shipped from the Atlantic Coast and the Mexican Gulf. The drop in European seaborne demand for coal did not affect these countries, but rather South Africa. From being the single largest coal exporter to Europe with 52.0 million tons in 2005, the country has become a footnote, with 13.6 million tons in 2011. This represents bad business for the shipping industry, since the sailing distance from Richards Bay to Rotterdam is 98% longer than from Hampton Roads and 61% longer than from Puerto Bolivar.
Although European coal imports didn’t tell a particular positive story for shipping, US exports most certainly did. We expect to publish a story on this within the next couple of weeks.
On a more general note regarding the bulk market, China is expected to increase its imports of wheat, as sub-standard storage facilities have damaged a part of the huge Chinese stockpiles. Traders said that China is seeking to increase imports when global prices are in a slump. Current forward prices indicate that this may happen during the third quarter of 2013. According to Chinese customs statistics, the main exporters of wheat to China are Australia, Canada and United States, the latter two providing significant tonne miles.
Meanwhile, Argentina is exporting record high volumes of grains; CRSL reported that Argentina exported 4.86 million tons of grains in March – the highest number ever for a single month. This gave a spike in Panamax rates with the BPI staying just below the psychological barrier of USD 10,000 per day in March and April, but earnings are now slightly lower at around USD 7,000 per day. In our last report, we predicted that Panamax rates would stay in the USD 5,000-10,000 per day territory; going forward seasonal events like Argentinian exports are likely to provide for the upside ticks.
SUPPLY
New dry bulk deliveries walk the anticipated line and have now reached 29 million DWT. Meanwhile, 11 million DWT have been sold for recycling, which brings the year-to-date fleet growth up to 2.8%. The inflow is seen primarily in the Panamax segment, where 136 (in 2012: 162) new vessels are keeping Panamax fleet growth high. Simultaneously, the Capesize segment only saw 48 (in 2012: 115) new vessels coming on stream, eventually easing some of the pain from the current overcapacity.
Average age and size of the demolished tonnage is 28 years and 60,000 DWT. In line with the development seen in the last couple of years, the average age is still trending down – whereas the average size is essentially unchanged. BIMCO forecasts a slightly lower level of tonnage being demolished in 2013 as compared to last year; however, it is still going to be the second-largest year on record. The solid level of demolition prices will inspire owners to consider recycling, rather than trading their old tonnage in a very volatile market without certainty of sustainable freight rates and against more energy efficient tonnage.
As regards the orderbook, it’s also moving in the right direction in spite of the recent flurry of new orders for more fuel-efficient tonnage. During the past 10 weeks the number of newbuilding orders in the book has come down from 1,599 to 1,548. Finally, on the ordering side, strong interest in Capesizes remains evident, with 62 new orders in 2013. A total of 18 million DWT has been ordered in the year so far, with March and April seeing total new orders placed in excess of 4.5 million DWT each month.
OUTLOOK
The Summer lull is creeping up on dry bulk shipping demand following the successful South American grain season. Fortunately, solid demand is keeping spirits up in the dry bulk industry, while the severe extent of overcapacity is pushing the date for a full-blown recovery of earnings into a somewhat distant future. For now the market is getting more and more spot focused, as no owners want to commit tonnage for longer terms at offered levels. Don’t look at the paper market for any support, because you won’t find it. FFA indications (10/6) for Capesize tonnage go to the tune of USD per day: Q3-13, Q4-13, Cal 14 and Cal 15: 7,550, 12,000, 11,450 and 13,700 and for Supramax the indications go as follows in USD per day for the same dates: 7,900, 8,400, 8,600 and 8,900. USD per day in the spot market (10/6): Capesize for 5,571 and Supramax for 9,307.
Expect the unexpected from the dry bulk market seems to be the message passed on in recent years – and today is no different, as Handysize tonnage is earning USD 10,900 per day on an Atlantic round voyage whereas Capesizes are struggling to get a 1 year T/C fixed at USD 10,500 per day if at all. With respect to freight rates for Panamax and Supramax tonnage, they have lost ground since the beginning of March.
To sum up, our forecast for the coming 6 weeks: BIMCO holds the view that Capesize TC average rates are expected to remain subdued around USD 4,500-7,500 per day. Panamax is expected to stay in the USD 4,500-8,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 7,000-10,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-8,500 per day.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping News
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Thursday, 11 November 21
ASIA COAL POWER PIPELINE TO SHRINK BY TWO THIRDS AFTER CHINA FINANCE CUT - REUTERS
Asia’s pipeline of proposed coal-fired power plants is expected to shrink from 65 gigawatts to 22 gigawatts following China’s pledge to ...
Tuesday, 09 November 21
ASIA-PACIFIC IS HOME TO SOME OF THE WORLD'S LARGEST CARBON-EMITTERS - 2 CHARTS SHOW ITS RELIANCE ON COAL - CNBC
Asia-Pacific is home to some of the world’s largest carbon emitters — and experts say much of global efforts to fight climate change de ...
Tuesday, 09 November 21
CHINA DAILY COAL OUTPUT HITS MULTI-YEAR PEAK, PRICES EXPECTED TO FALL - REUTERS
China’s daily coal output hit 11.93 million tonnes last week, a multi-year high as more capacity returned to operation, the state planner sai ...
Thursday, 04 November 21
CHINA'S COAL MARKET SEES SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENTS: NDRC - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s top economic planner has declared initial success in its efforts to ensure coal supply and stabilize prices, saying that daily coal o ...
Thursday, 04 November 21
CHINA THERMAL COAL PRICES RISE AFTER FALLING FOR 10 DAYS - REUTERS
China thermal coal futures rebounded on Wednesday after falling for 10 days on an expected jump in fuel demand to meet heating needs amid forecasts ...
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Showing 416 to 420 news of total 6871 |
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- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
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