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Thursday, 13 June 13
BIMCO EXPECTS SUBDUED CAPESIZE EARNINGS FOR THE COMING WEEKS - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Bulk is not only about China even though it is a key driver. In this section, we have taken a closer look at the European seaborne coal markets, which is going through some interesting times right now. European coal demand has been in a slump ever since early 2009, where seaborne demand fell by 14 million tons from the first to the second quarter. Import volumes during the last three quarters of 2011 indicated that seaborne coal demand was recovering, but the development stalled somewhat in 2012. Looking on a country basis, the nation with the biggest decline was Italy, with annual seaborne imports being roughly 8 million tons lower today than before the financial crisis. France has also decreased its imports by around 4-5 million tons annually. The United Kingdom and Spain have weakened as well, but these countries seem to be on a rebound, with volumes being slightly below pre-financial crisis levels. The Netherlands and Germany have had relatively stable import numbers since 2005.
The bulk of seaborne coal going to Europe comes from North America, Colombia and Russia. The United States and Colombia have doubled their exports to Europe, while Russia has maintained its share of the European demand. Russian coal is shipped from both Russian and Latvian ports; Colombian coal is primarily shipped from the Caribbean, while US coal is primarily shipped from the Atlantic Coast and the Mexican Gulf. The drop in European seaborne demand for coal did not affect these countries, but rather South Africa. From being the single largest coal exporter to Europe with 52.0 million tons in 2005, the country has become a footnote, with 13.6 million tons in 2011. This represents bad business for the shipping industry, since the sailing distance from Richards Bay to Rotterdam is 98% longer than from Hampton Roads and 61% longer than from Puerto Bolivar.
Although European coal imports didn’t tell a particular positive story for shipping, US exports most certainly did. We expect to publish a story on this within the next couple of weeks.
On a more general note regarding the bulk market, China is expected to increase its imports of wheat, as sub-standard storage facilities have damaged a part of the huge Chinese stockpiles. Traders said that China is seeking to increase imports when global prices are in a slump. Current forward prices indicate that this may happen during the third quarter of 2013. According to Chinese customs statistics, the main exporters of wheat to China are Australia, Canada and United States, the latter two providing significant tonne miles.
Meanwhile, Argentina is exporting record high volumes of grains; CRSL reported that Argentina exported 4.86 million tons of grains in March – the highest number ever for a single month. This gave a spike in Panamax rates with the BPI staying just below the psychological barrier of USD 10,000 per day in March and April, but earnings are now slightly lower at around USD 7,000 per day. In our last report, we predicted that Panamax rates would stay in the USD 5,000-10,000 per day territory; going forward seasonal events like Argentinian exports are likely to provide for the upside ticks.
SUPPLY
New dry bulk deliveries walk the anticipated line and have now reached 29 million DWT. Meanwhile, 11 million DWT have been sold for recycling, which brings the year-to-date fleet growth up to 2.8%. The inflow is seen primarily in the Panamax segment, where 136 (in 2012: 162) new vessels are keeping Panamax fleet growth high. Simultaneously, the Capesize segment only saw 48 (in 2012: 115) new vessels coming on stream, eventually easing some of the pain from the current overcapacity.
Average age and size of the demolished tonnage is 28 years and 60,000 DWT. In line with the development seen in the last couple of years, the average age is still trending down – whereas the average size is essentially unchanged. BIMCO forecasts a slightly lower level of tonnage being demolished in 2013 as compared to last year; however, it is still going to be the second-largest year on record. The solid level of demolition prices will inspire owners to consider recycling, rather than trading their old tonnage in a very volatile market without certainty of sustainable freight rates and against more energy efficient tonnage.
As regards the orderbook, it’s also moving in the right direction in spite of the recent flurry of new orders for more fuel-efficient tonnage. During the past 10 weeks the number of newbuilding orders in the book has come down from 1,599 to 1,548. Finally, on the ordering side, strong interest in Capesizes remains evident, with 62 new orders in 2013. A total of 18 million DWT has been ordered in the year so far, with March and April seeing total new orders placed in excess of 4.5 million DWT each month.
OUTLOOK
The Summer lull is creeping up on dry bulk shipping demand following the successful South American grain season. Fortunately, solid demand is keeping spirits up in the dry bulk industry, while the severe extent of overcapacity is pushing the date for a full-blown recovery of earnings into a somewhat distant future. For now the market is getting more and more spot focused, as no owners want to commit tonnage for longer terms at offered levels. Don’t look at the paper market for any support, because you won’t find it. FFA indications (10/6) for Capesize tonnage go to the tune of USD per day: Q3-13, Q4-13, Cal 14 and Cal 15: 7,550, 12,000, 11,450 and 13,700 and for Supramax the indications go as follows in USD per day for the same dates: 7,900, 8,400, 8,600 and 8,900. USD per day in the spot market (10/6): Capesize for 5,571 and Supramax for 9,307.
Expect the unexpected from the dry bulk market seems to be the message passed on in recent years – and today is no different, as Handysize tonnage is earning USD 10,900 per day on an Atlantic round voyage whereas Capesizes are struggling to get a 1 year T/C fixed at USD 10,500 per day if at all. With respect to freight rates for Panamax and Supramax tonnage, they have lost ground since the beginning of March.
To sum up, our forecast for the coming 6 weeks: BIMCO holds the view that Capesize TC average rates are expected to remain subdued around USD 4,500-7,500 per day. Panamax is expected to stay in the USD 4,500-8,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 7,000-10,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-8,500 per day.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping News
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Thursday, 13 October 22
OPEC DOWNGRADES CRUDE OIL DEMAND, AS WORLD ECONOMY ENTERS SLOWDOWN
Crude Oil Price Movements
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined m-o-m by $6.58 in September, or 6.5%, to average $95.32/b. Pressure from equ ...
Wednesday, 12 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Sale and Purchase activity during the first three quarters of 2022 has been remarkable.
Focusing only on Tankers and Bulkers, such v ...
Monday, 10 October 22
ENERGY TRANSITION BOOSTS GLOBAL LONG-TERM DEMAND FOR METALS - FITCH RATINGS
The energy transition will significantly increase demand for metals used in manufacturing of electric vehicles (EVs) and renewable power generation ...
Monday, 10 October 22
GLOBAL CEOS EXPECT IMPENDING RECESSION TO BE 'SHORT AND SHARP,' POLL SHOWS - CNBC
Global CEOs are anticipating a recession in the next 12 months, according to a new survey by professional services firm KPMG, which said more than ...
Thursday, 06 October 22
AUSTRALIA’S RESOURCES REVENUE TO HIT RECORD AMID UKRAINE CONFLICT - REUTERS
Australian resources and energy export earnings are forecast to jump 7% to a record A$450 billion ($290 billion) this fiscal year, bolstered by soa ...
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- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
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