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Thursday, 13 June 13
BIMCO EXPECTS SUBDUED CAPESIZE EARNINGS FOR THE COMING WEEKS - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Bulk is not only about China even though it is a key driver. In this section, we have taken a closer look at the European seaborne coal markets, which is going through some interesting times right now. European coal demand has been in a slump ever since early 2009, where seaborne demand fell by 14 million tons from the first to the second quarter. Import volumes during the last three quarters of 2011 indicated that seaborne coal demand was recovering, but the development stalled somewhat in 2012. Looking on a country basis, the nation with the biggest decline was Italy, with annual seaborne imports being roughly 8 million tons lower today than before the financial crisis. France has also decreased its imports by around 4-5 million tons annually. The United Kingdom and Spain have weakened as well, but these countries seem to be on a rebound, with volumes being slightly below pre-financial crisis levels. The Netherlands and Germany have had relatively stable import numbers since 2005.
The bulk of seaborne coal going to Europe comes from North America, Colombia and Russia. The United States and Colombia have doubled their exports to Europe, while Russia has maintained its share of the European demand. Russian coal is shipped from both Russian and Latvian ports; Colombian coal is primarily shipped from the Caribbean, while US coal is primarily shipped from the Atlantic Coast and the Mexican Gulf. The drop in European seaborne demand for coal did not affect these countries, but rather South Africa. From being the single largest coal exporter to Europe with 52.0 million tons in 2005, the country has become a footnote, with 13.6 million tons in 2011. This represents bad business for the shipping industry, since the sailing distance from Richards Bay to Rotterdam is 98% longer than from Hampton Roads and 61% longer than from Puerto Bolivar.
Although European coal imports didn’t tell a particular positive story for shipping, US exports most certainly did. We expect to publish a story on this within the next couple of weeks.
On a more general note regarding the bulk market, China is expected to increase its imports of wheat, as sub-standard storage facilities have damaged a part of the huge Chinese stockpiles. Traders said that China is seeking to increase imports when global prices are in a slump. Current forward prices indicate that this may happen during the third quarter of 2013. According to Chinese customs statistics, the main exporters of wheat to China are Australia, Canada and United States, the latter two providing significant tonne miles.
Meanwhile, Argentina is exporting record high volumes of grains; CRSL reported that Argentina exported 4.86 million tons of grains in March – the highest number ever for a single month. This gave a spike in Panamax rates with the BPI staying just below the psychological barrier of USD 10,000 per day in March and April, but earnings are now slightly lower at around USD 7,000 per day. In our last report, we predicted that Panamax rates would stay in the USD 5,000-10,000 per day territory; going forward seasonal events like Argentinian exports are likely to provide for the upside ticks.
SUPPLY
New dry bulk deliveries walk the anticipated line and have now reached 29 million DWT. Meanwhile, 11 million DWT have been sold for recycling, which brings the year-to-date fleet growth up to 2.8%. The inflow is seen primarily in the Panamax segment, where 136 (in 2012: 162) new vessels are keeping Panamax fleet growth high. Simultaneously, the Capesize segment only saw 48 (in 2012: 115) new vessels coming on stream, eventually easing some of the pain from the current overcapacity.
Average age and size of the demolished tonnage is 28 years and 60,000 DWT. In line with the development seen in the last couple of years, the average age is still trending down – whereas the average size is essentially unchanged. BIMCO forecasts a slightly lower level of tonnage being demolished in 2013 as compared to last year; however, it is still going to be the second-largest year on record. The solid level of demolition prices will inspire owners to consider recycling, rather than trading their old tonnage in a very volatile market without certainty of sustainable freight rates and against more energy efficient tonnage.
As regards the orderbook, it’s also moving in the right direction in spite of the recent flurry of new orders for more fuel-efficient tonnage. During the past 10 weeks the number of newbuilding orders in the book has come down from 1,599 to 1,548. Finally, on the ordering side, strong interest in Capesizes remains evident, with 62 new orders in 2013. A total of 18 million DWT has been ordered in the year so far, with March and April seeing total new orders placed in excess of 4.5 million DWT each month.
OUTLOOK
The Summer lull is creeping up on dry bulk shipping demand following the successful South American grain season. Fortunately, solid demand is keeping spirits up in the dry bulk industry, while the severe extent of overcapacity is pushing the date for a full-blown recovery of earnings into a somewhat distant future. For now the market is getting more and more spot focused, as no owners want to commit tonnage for longer terms at offered levels. Don’t look at the paper market for any support, because you won’t find it. FFA indications (10/6) for Capesize tonnage go to the tune of USD per day: Q3-13, Q4-13, Cal 14 and Cal 15: 7,550, 12,000, 11,450 and 13,700 and for Supramax the indications go as follows in USD per day for the same dates: 7,900, 8,400, 8,600 and 8,900. USD per day in the spot market (10/6): Capesize for 5,571 and Supramax for 9,307.
Expect the unexpected from the dry bulk market seems to be the message passed on in recent years – and today is no different, as Handysize tonnage is earning USD 10,900 per day on an Atlantic round voyage whereas Capesizes are struggling to get a 1 year T/C fixed at USD 10,500 per day if at all. With respect to freight rates for Panamax and Supramax tonnage, they have lost ground since the beginning of March.
To sum up, our forecast for the coming 6 weeks: BIMCO holds the view that Capesize TC average rates are expected to remain subdued around USD 4,500-7,500 per day. Panamax is expected to stay in the USD 4,500-8,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 7,000-10,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-8,500 per day.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping News
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Monday, 31 October 22
U.S. COAL-FIRED GENERATION DECLINING AFTER BRIEF RISE LAST YEAR - EIA
We expect 6% less U.S. coal-fired generation in 2022 than in 2021, according to our latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). Although coal-fired ge ...
Monday, 31 October 22
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 12.3 PCT IN SEPTEMBER - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted stable expansion in September, official data showed.
The country produced 390 million tonnes of ...
Wednesday, 26 October 22
BIMCO PUBLISHES UPDATED GENCON CONTRACT
BIMCO has published a revised and updated version GENCON 2022 – one of its flagship contracts within its portfolio of standard contracts for ...
Monday, 24 October 22
KOSPO TO INVITE 400,000 MT OF COAL FOR 3 YEARS
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an international tender for 400,000 MT of 3,800 - 4,400kcal/kg NCV and Sulfur Max 0 ...
Wednesday, 19 October 22
ASIA COULD BE A BRIGHT SPOT AMID GLOBAL DOWNTURN NEXT YEAR, ECONOMISTS SAY - CNBC
Asia — especially Southeast Asia — remains a bright spot, even as the global economy looks set to head into recession next year, econom ...
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- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
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