We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Thursday, 13 June 13
BIMCO EXPECTS SUBDUED CAPESIZE EARNINGS FOR THE COMING WEEKS - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Bulk is not only about China even though it is a key driver. In this section, we have taken a closer look at the European seaborne coal markets, which is going through some interesting times right now. European coal demand has been in a slump ever since early 2009, where seaborne demand fell by 14 million tons from the first to the second quarter. Import volumes during the last three quarters of 2011 indicated that seaborne coal demand was recovering, but the development stalled somewhat in 2012. Looking on a country basis, the nation with the biggest decline was Italy, with annual seaborne imports being roughly 8 million tons lower today than before the financial crisis. France has also decreased its imports by around 4-5 million tons annually. The United Kingdom and Spain have weakened as well, but these countries seem to be on a rebound, with volumes being slightly below pre-financial crisis levels. The Netherlands and Germany have had relatively stable import numbers since 2005.
The bulk of seaborne coal going to Europe comes from North America, Colombia and Russia. The United States and Colombia have doubled their exports to Europe, while Russia has maintained its share of the European demand. Russian coal is shipped from both Russian and Latvian ports; Colombian coal is primarily shipped from the Caribbean, while US coal is primarily shipped from the Atlantic Coast and the Mexican Gulf. The drop in European seaborne demand for coal did not affect these countries, but rather South Africa. From being the single largest coal exporter to Europe with 52.0 million tons in 2005, the country has become a footnote, with 13.6 million tons in 2011. This represents bad business for the shipping industry, since the sailing distance from Richards Bay to Rotterdam is 98% longer than from Hampton Roads and 61% longer than from Puerto Bolivar.
Although European coal imports didn’t tell a particular positive story for shipping, US exports most certainly did. We expect to publish a story on this within the next couple of weeks.
On a more general note regarding the bulk market, China is expected to increase its imports of wheat, as sub-standard storage facilities have damaged a part of the huge Chinese stockpiles. Traders said that China is seeking to increase imports when global prices are in a slump. Current forward prices indicate that this may happen during the third quarter of 2013. According to Chinese customs statistics, the main exporters of wheat to China are Australia, Canada and United States, the latter two providing significant tonne miles.
Meanwhile, Argentina is exporting record high volumes of grains; CRSL reported that Argentina exported 4.86 million tons of grains in March – the highest number ever for a single month. This gave a spike in Panamax rates with the BPI staying just below the psychological barrier of USD 10,000 per day in March and April, but earnings are now slightly lower at around USD 7,000 per day. In our last report, we predicted that Panamax rates would stay in the USD 5,000-10,000 per day territory; going forward seasonal events like Argentinian exports are likely to provide for the upside ticks.
SUPPLY
New dry bulk deliveries walk the anticipated line and have now reached 29 million DWT. Meanwhile, 11 million DWT have been sold for recycling, which brings the year-to-date fleet growth up to 2.8%. The inflow is seen primarily in the Panamax segment, where 136 (in 2012: 162) new vessels are keeping Panamax fleet growth high. Simultaneously, the Capesize segment only saw 48 (in 2012: 115) new vessels coming on stream, eventually easing some of the pain from the current overcapacity.
Average age and size of the demolished tonnage is 28 years and 60,000 DWT. In line with the development seen in the last couple of years, the average age is still trending down – whereas the average size is essentially unchanged. BIMCO forecasts a slightly lower level of tonnage being demolished in 2013 as compared to last year; however, it is still going to be the second-largest year on record. The solid level of demolition prices will inspire owners to consider recycling, rather than trading their old tonnage in a very volatile market without certainty of sustainable freight rates and against more energy efficient tonnage.
As regards the orderbook, it’s also moving in the right direction in spite of the recent flurry of new orders for more fuel-efficient tonnage. During the past 10 weeks the number of newbuilding orders in the book has come down from 1,599 to 1,548. Finally, on the ordering side, strong interest in Capesizes remains evident, with 62 new orders in 2013. A total of 18 million DWT has been ordered in the year so far, with March and April seeing total new orders placed in excess of 4.5 million DWT each month.
OUTLOOK
The Summer lull is creeping up on dry bulk shipping demand following the successful South American grain season. Fortunately, solid demand is keeping spirits up in the dry bulk industry, while the severe extent of overcapacity is pushing the date for a full-blown recovery of earnings into a somewhat distant future. For now the market is getting more and more spot focused, as no owners want to commit tonnage for longer terms at offered levels. Don’t look at the paper market for any support, because you won’t find it. FFA indications (10/6) for Capesize tonnage go to the tune of USD per day: Q3-13, Q4-13, Cal 14 and Cal 15: 7,550, 12,000, 11,450 and 13,700 and for Supramax the indications go as follows in USD per day for the same dates: 7,900, 8,400, 8,600 and 8,900. USD per day in the spot market (10/6): Capesize for 5,571 and Supramax for 9,307.
Expect the unexpected from the dry bulk market seems to be the message passed on in recent years – and today is no different, as Handysize tonnage is earning USD 10,900 per day on an Atlantic round voyage whereas Capesizes are struggling to get a 1 year T/C fixed at USD 10,500 per day if at all. With respect to freight rates for Panamax and Supramax tonnage, they have lost ground since the beginning of March.
To sum up, our forecast for the coming 6 weeks: BIMCO holds the view that Capesize TC average rates are expected to remain subdued around USD 4,500-7,500 per day. Panamax is expected to stay in the USD 4,500-8,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 7,000-10,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-8,500 per day.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping News
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Tuesday, 04 October 22
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE SURGE AGAIN TO RECORD HIGH
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference reached another record high in October as Russia's war in Ukraine continues to spark a surge in c ...
Sunday, 02 October 22
MISC STRENGTHENS ITS PARTNERSHIP WITH SEARIVER MARITIME
MISC Berhad (MISC) today announced that its subsidiaries Polaris LNG Three Pte. Ltd. and Polaris LNG Four Pte. Ltd. have secured long-term time cha ...
Thursday, 29 September 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
This week, focus turns to the 38th APPEC Conference, where leading professionals from the global oil industry will discuss the future key drivers o ...
Thursday, 29 September 22
HIGH COAL PRICES REMAIN A CONCERN FOR DOMESTIC NON-FERROUS METAL COMPANIES - ICRA
According to ICRA on Monday, the high price of coal will have a negative effect on the profitability of domestic non-ferrous metal companies that m ...
Tuesday, 27 September 22
14% INCREASE IN EUROPEAN COAL DEMAND TO BE SHORT-TERM TREND - WOOD MACKENZIE
European seaborne thermal coal demand is projected to increase 14% or 12 million metric tonnes (Mt) this year to 98 Mt as it grapples with the curr ...
|
|
|
Showing 221 to 225 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Australian Coal Association
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
|
| |
| |
|
