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Thursday, 13 June 13
BIMCO EXPECTS SUBDUED CAPESIZE EARNINGS FOR THE COMING WEEKS - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Bulk is not only about China even though it is a key driver. In this section, we have taken a closer look at the European seaborne coal markets, which is going through some interesting times right now. European coal demand has been in a slump ever since early 2009, where seaborne demand fell by 14 million tons from the first to the second quarter. Import volumes during the last three quarters of 2011 indicated that seaborne coal demand was recovering, but the development stalled somewhat in 2012. Looking on a country basis, the nation with the biggest decline was Italy, with annual seaborne imports being roughly 8 million tons lower today than before the financial crisis. France has also decreased its imports by around 4-5 million tons annually. The United Kingdom and Spain have weakened as well, but these countries seem to be on a rebound, with volumes being slightly below pre-financial crisis levels. The Netherlands and Germany have had relatively stable import numbers since 2005.
The bulk of seaborne coal going to Europe comes from North America, Colombia and Russia. The United States and Colombia have doubled their exports to Europe, while Russia has maintained its share of the European demand. Russian coal is shipped from both Russian and Latvian ports; Colombian coal is primarily shipped from the Caribbean, while US coal is primarily shipped from the Atlantic Coast and the Mexican Gulf. The drop in European seaborne demand for coal did not affect these countries, but rather South Africa. From being the single largest coal exporter to Europe with 52.0 million tons in 2005, the country has become a footnote, with 13.6 million tons in 2011. This represents bad business for the shipping industry, since the sailing distance from Richards Bay to Rotterdam is 98% longer than from Hampton Roads and 61% longer than from Puerto Bolivar.
Although European coal imports didn’t tell a particular positive story for shipping, US exports most certainly did. We expect to publish a story on this within the next couple of weeks.
On a more general note regarding the bulk market, China is expected to increase its imports of wheat, as sub-standard storage facilities have damaged a part of the huge Chinese stockpiles. Traders said that China is seeking to increase imports when global prices are in a slump. Current forward prices indicate that this may happen during the third quarter of 2013. According to Chinese customs statistics, the main exporters of wheat to China are Australia, Canada and United States, the latter two providing significant tonne miles.
Meanwhile, Argentina is exporting record high volumes of grains; CRSL reported that Argentina exported 4.86 million tons of grains in March – the highest number ever for a single month. This gave a spike in Panamax rates with the BPI staying just below the psychological barrier of USD 10,000 per day in March and April, but earnings are now slightly lower at around USD 7,000 per day. In our last report, we predicted that Panamax rates would stay in the USD 5,000-10,000 per day territory; going forward seasonal events like Argentinian exports are likely to provide for the upside ticks.
SUPPLY
New dry bulk deliveries walk the anticipated line and have now reached 29 million DWT. Meanwhile, 11 million DWT have been sold for recycling, which brings the year-to-date fleet growth up to 2.8%. The inflow is seen primarily in the Panamax segment, where 136 (in 2012: 162) new vessels are keeping Panamax fleet growth high. Simultaneously, the Capesize segment only saw 48 (in 2012: 115) new vessels coming on stream, eventually easing some of the pain from the current overcapacity.
Average age and size of the demolished tonnage is 28 years and 60,000 DWT. In line with the development seen in the last couple of years, the average age is still trending down – whereas the average size is essentially unchanged. BIMCO forecasts a slightly lower level of tonnage being demolished in 2013 as compared to last year; however, it is still going to be the second-largest year on record. The solid level of demolition prices will inspire owners to consider recycling, rather than trading their old tonnage in a very volatile market without certainty of sustainable freight rates and against more energy efficient tonnage.
As regards the orderbook, it’s also moving in the right direction in spite of the recent flurry of new orders for more fuel-efficient tonnage. During the past 10 weeks the number of newbuilding orders in the book has come down from 1,599 to 1,548. Finally, on the ordering side, strong interest in Capesizes remains evident, with 62 new orders in 2013. A total of 18 million DWT has been ordered in the year so far, with March and April seeing total new orders placed in excess of 4.5 million DWT each month.
OUTLOOK
The Summer lull is creeping up on dry bulk shipping demand following the successful South American grain season. Fortunately, solid demand is keeping spirits up in the dry bulk industry, while the severe extent of overcapacity is pushing the date for a full-blown recovery of earnings into a somewhat distant future. For now the market is getting more and more spot focused, as no owners want to commit tonnage for longer terms at offered levels. Don’t look at the paper market for any support, because you won’t find it. FFA indications (10/6) for Capesize tonnage go to the tune of USD per day: Q3-13, Q4-13, Cal 14 and Cal 15: 7,550, 12,000, 11,450 and 13,700 and for Supramax the indications go as follows in USD per day for the same dates: 7,900, 8,400, 8,600 and 8,900. USD per day in the spot market (10/6): Capesize for 5,571 and Supramax for 9,307.
Expect the unexpected from the dry bulk market seems to be the message passed on in recent years – and today is no different, as Handysize tonnage is earning USD 10,900 per day on an Atlantic round voyage whereas Capesizes are struggling to get a 1 year T/C fixed at USD 10,500 per day if at all. With respect to freight rates for Panamax and Supramax tonnage, they have lost ground since the beginning of March.
To sum up, our forecast for the coming 6 weeks: BIMCO holds the view that Capesize TC average rates are expected to remain subdued around USD 4,500-7,500 per day. Panamax is expected to stay in the USD 4,500-8,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 7,000-10,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-8,500 per day.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping News
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Thursday, 06 October 22
COAL INDIA ASKED TO ENHANCE SUPPLY TO THERMAL POWER PLANTS - IANS
With the festival season round the corner, Coal India Ltd. has been directed by the government to scale up dispatch to thermal power plants.
&n ...
Wednesday, 05 October 22
BUNKER PRICES DOWN AGAIN; IS THERE MORE TO COME? - INTEGR8 FUELS
It’s the economy…..”
VLSFO prices are now back to levels at the start of this year. After all the extremes of thi ...
Wednesday, 05 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Amid the looming western sanctions on Russia, the country is challenged to pivot its energy markets away from Europe and toward the East. Yet, Russ ...
Tuesday, 04 October 22
A REMARKABLE SHIFT IN FORTUNES HAS BEEN NOTED IN THE CRUDE OIL TANKER MARKETS - ALLIED SHIPPING
A remarkable shift in fortunes has been noted in the crude oil tanker markets over the past month, yet despite these shifts being seemingly in thei ...
Tuesday, 04 October 22
OIL PRICES COULD SOON RETURN TO $100 AS OPEC+ CONSIDERS ‘HISTORIC’ CUT, ANALYSTS SAY - CNBC
An influential alliance of some of the world’s most powerful oil producers is reportedly considering their largest output cut since the start ...
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- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Planning Commission, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
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