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Thursday, 13 June 13
BIMCO EXPECTS SUBDUED CAPESIZE EARNINGS FOR THE COMING WEEKS - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Bulk is not only about China even though it is a key driver. In this section, we have taken a closer look at the European seaborne coal markets, which is going through some interesting times right now. European coal demand has been in a slump ever since early 2009, where seaborne demand fell by 14 million tons from the first to the second quarter. Import volumes during the last three quarters of 2011 indicated that seaborne coal demand was recovering, but the development stalled somewhat in 2012. Looking on a country basis, the nation with the biggest decline was Italy, with annual seaborne imports being roughly 8 million tons lower today than before the financial crisis. France has also decreased its imports by around 4-5 million tons annually. The United Kingdom and Spain have weakened as well, but these countries seem to be on a rebound, with volumes being slightly below pre-financial crisis levels. The Netherlands and Germany have had relatively stable import numbers since 2005.
The bulk of seaborne coal going to Europe comes from North America, Colombia and Russia. The United States and Colombia have doubled their exports to Europe, while Russia has maintained its share of the European demand. Russian coal is shipped from both Russian and Latvian ports; Colombian coal is primarily shipped from the Caribbean, while US coal is primarily shipped from the Atlantic Coast and the Mexican Gulf. The drop in European seaborne demand for coal did not affect these countries, but rather South Africa. From being the single largest coal exporter to Europe with 52.0 million tons in 2005, the country has become a footnote, with 13.6 million tons in 2011. This represents bad business for the shipping industry, since the sailing distance from Richards Bay to Rotterdam is 98% longer than from Hampton Roads and 61% longer than from Puerto Bolivar.
Although European coal imports didn’t tell a particular positive story for shipping, US exports most certainly did. We expect to publish a story on this within the next couple of weeks.
On a more general note regarding the bulk market, China is expected to increase its imports of wheat, as sub-standard storage facilities have damaged a part of the huge Chinese stockpiles. Traders said that China is seeking to increase imports when global prices are in a slump. Current forward prices indicate that this may happen during the third quarter of 2013. According to Chinese customs statistics, the main exporters of wheat to China are Australia, Canada and United States, the latter two providing significant tonne miles.
Meanwhile, Argentina is exporting record high volumes of grains; CRSL reported that Argentina exported 4.86 million tons of grains in March – the highest number ever for a single month. This gave a spike in Panamax rates with the BPI staying just below the psychological barrier of USD 10,000 per day in March and April, but earnings are now slightly lower at around USD 7,000 per day. In our last report, we predicted that Panamax rates would stay in the USD 5,000-10,000 per day territory; going forward seasonal events like Argentinian exports are likely to provide for the upside ticks.
SUPPLY
New dry bulk deliveries walk the anticipated line and have now reached 29 million DWT. Meanwhile, 11 million DWT have been sold for recycling, which brings the year-to-date fleet growth up to 2.8%. The inflow is seen primarily in the Panamax segment, where 136 (in 2012: 162) new vessels are keeping Panamax fleet growth high. Simultaneously, the Capesize segment only saw 48 (in 2012: 115) new vessels coming on stream, eventually easing some of the pain from the current overcapacity.
Average age and size of the demolished tonnage is 28 years and 60,000 DWT. In line with the development seen in the last couple of years, the average age is still trending down – whereas the average size is essentially unchanged. BIMCO forecasts a slightly lower level of tonnage being demolished in 2013 as compared to last year; however, it is still going to be the second-largest year on record. The solid level of demolition prices will inspire owners to consider recycling, rather than trading their old tonnage in a very volatile market without certainty of sustainable freight rates and against more energy efficient tonnage.
As regards the orderbook, it’s also moving in the right direction in spite of the recent flurry of new orders for more fuel-efficient tonnage. During the past 10 weeks the number of newbuilding orders in the book has come down from 1,599 to 1,548. Finally, on the ordering side, strong interest in Capesizes remains evident, with 62 new orders in 2013. A total of 18 million DWT has been ordered in the year so far, with March and April seeing total new orders placed in excess of 4.5 million DWT each month.
OUTLOOK
The Summer lull is creeping up on dry bulk shipping demand following the successful South American grain season. Fortunately, solid demand is keeping spirits up in the dry bulk industry, while the severe extent of overcapacity is pushing the date for a full-blown recovery of earnings into a somewhat distant future. For now the market is getting more and more spot focused, as no owners want to commit tonnage for longer terms at offered levels. Don’t look at the paper market for any support, because you won’t find it. FFA indications (10/6) for Capesize tonnage go to the tune of USD per day: Q3-13, Q4-13, Cal 14 and Cal 15: 7,550, 12,000, 11,450 and 13,700 and for Supramax the indications go as follows in USD per day for the same dates: 7,900, 8,400, 8,600 and 8,900. USD per day in the spot market (10/6): Capesize for 5,571 and Supramax for 9,307.
Expect the unexpected from the dry bulk market seems to be the message passed on in recent years – and today is no different, as Handysize tonnage is earning USD 10,900 per day on an Atlantic round voyage whereas Capesizes are struggling to get a 1 year T/C fixed at USD 10,500 per day if at all. With respect to freight rates for Panamax and Supramax tonnage, they have lost ground since the beginning of March.
To sum up, our forecast for the coming 6 weeks: BIMCO holds the view that Capesize TC average rates are expected to remain subdued around USD 4,500-7,500 per day. Panamax is expected to stay in the USD 4,500-8,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 7,000-10,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-8,500 per day.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping News
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Wednesday, 07 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
China’s coal imports from January to October were 230.1m mt, a decrease of around 10.7% y-o-y (2021 totalled 323.2m mt). The question is if t ...
Wednesday, 07 December 22
INDIA'S STEEL MINISTRY SEEKS IMPORT TAX WAIVER FOR COKING COAL - SOURCES REUTERS REPORTED
India’s steel ministry has asked the finance ministry for a waiver of import tax on coking coal among a slew of raw materials, as it scramble ...
Tuesday, 06 December 22
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION RISES 17% IN APR-NOV PERIOD - PTI
The country’s coal production increased 17 per cent to 524.20 million tonnes in the April-November period of the ongoing fiscal.
...
Tuesday, 06 December 22
INDONESIA AIMS TO STARTS COLLECTING COAL LEVY IN Q1 2023 - MINISTER, REUTERS REPORTED
Indonesia aims to establish a coal fund agency and start collecting a coal levy in the first quarter next year, to help ensure supply security for ...
Saturday, 03 December 22
COMPLEX RUSSIAN PRICE CAP MAKES MARITIME VISIBILITY A MUST - WINDWARD
Many commentators and analysts are speculating about the potential impact the Russian seaborne oil price cap will have on organizations and entitie ...
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- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
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