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Thursday, 13 June 13
BIMCO EXPECTS SUBDUED CAPESIZE EARNINGS FOR THE COMING WEEKS - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Bulk is not only about China even though it is a key driver. In this section, we have taken a closer look at the European seaborne coal markets, which is going through some interesting times right now. European coal demand has been in a slump ever since early 2009, where seaborne demand fell by 14 million tons from the first to the second quarter. Import volumes during the last three quarters of 2011 indicated that seaborne coal demand was recovering, but the development stalled somewhat in 2012. Looking on a country basis, the nation with the biggest decline was Italy, with annual seaborne imports being roughly 8 million tons lower today than before the financial crisis. France has also decreased its imports by around 4-5 million tons annually. The United Kingdom and Spain have weakened as well, but these countries seem to be on a rebound, with volumes being slightly below pre-financial crisis levels. The Netherlands and Germany have had relatively stable import numbers since 2005.
The bulk of seaborne coal going to Europe comes from North America, Colombia and Russia. The United States and Colombia have doubled their exports to Europe, while Russia has maintained its share of the European demand. Russian coal is shipped from both Russian and Latvian ports; Colombian coal is primarily shipped from the Caribbean, while US coal is primarily shipped from the Atlantic Coast and the Mexican Gulf. The drop in European seaborne demand for coal did not affect these countries, but rather South Africa. From being the single largest coal exporter to Europe with 52.0 million tons in 2005, the country has become a footnote, with 13.6 million tons in 2011. This represents bad business for the shipping industry, since the sailing distance from Richards Bay to Rotterdam is 98% longer than from Hampton Roads and 61% longer than from Puerto Bolivar.
Although European coal imports didn’t tell a particular positive story for shipping, US exports most certainly did. We expect to publish a story on this within the next couple of weeks.
On a more general note regarding the bulk market, China is expected to increase its imports of wheat, as sub-standard storage facilities have damaged a part of the huge Chinese stockpiles. Traders said that China is seeking to increase imports when global prices are in a slump. Current forward prices indicate that this may happen during the third quarter of 2013. According to Chinese customs statistics, the main exporters of wheat to China are Australia, Canada and United States, the latter two providing significant tonne miles.
Meanwhile, Argentina is exporting record high volumes of grains; CRSL reported that Argentina exported 4.86 million tons of grains in March – the highest number ever for a single month. This gave a spike in Panamax rates with the BPI staying just below the psychological barrier of USD 10,000 per day in March and April, but earnings are now slightly lower at around USD 7,000 per day. In our last report, we predicted that Panamax rates would stay in the USD 5,000-10,000 per day territory; going forward seasonal events like Argentinian exports are likely to provide for the upside ticks.
SUPPLY
New dry bulk deliveries walk the anticipated line and have now reached 29 million DWT. Meanwhile, 11 million DWT have been sold for recycling, which brings the year-to-date fleet growth up to 2.8%. The inflow is seen primarily in the Panamax segment, where 136 (in 2012: 162) new vessels are keeping Panamax fleet growth high. Simultaneously, the Capesize segment only saw 48 (in 2012: 115) new vessels coming on stream, eventually easing some of the pain from the current overcapacity.
Average age and size of the demolished tonnage is 28 years and 60,000 DWT. In line with the development seen in the last couple of years, the average age is still trending down – whereas the average size is essentially unchanged. BIMCO forecasts a slightly lower level of tonnage being demolished in 2013 as compared to last year; however, it is still going to be the second-largest year on record. The solid level of demolition prices will inspire owners to consider recycling, rather than trading their old tonnage in a very volatile market without certainty of sustainable freight rates and against more energy efficient tonnage.
As regards the orderbook, it’s also moving in the right direction in spite of the recent flurry of new orders for more fuel-efficient tonnage. During the past 10 weeks the number of newbuilding orders in the book has come down from 1,599 to 1,548. Finally, on the ordering side, strong interest in Capesizes remains evident, with 62 new orders in 2013. A total of 18 million DWT has been ordered in the year so far, with March and April seeing total new orders placed in excess of 4.5 million DWT each month.
OUTLOOK
The Summer lull is creeping up on dry bulk shipping demand following the successful South American grain season. Fortunately, solid demand is keeping spirits up in the dry bulk industry, while the severe extent of overcapacity is pushing the date for a full-blown recovery of earnings into a somewhat distant future. For now the market is getting more and more spot focused, as no owners want to commit tonnage for longer terms at offered levels. Don’t look at the paper market for any support, because you won’t find it. FFA indications (10/6) for Capesize tonnage go to the tune of USD per day: Q3-13, Q4-13, Cal 14 and Cal 15: 7,550, 12,000, 11,450 and 13,700 and for Supramax the indications go as follows in USD per day for the same dates: 7,900, 8,400, 8,600 and 8,900. USD per day in the spot market (10/6): Capesize for 5,571 and Supramax for 9,307.
Expect the unexpected from the dry bulk market seems to be the message passed on in recent years – and today is no different, as Handysize tonnage is earning USD 10,900 per day on an Atlantic round voyage whereas Capesizes are struggling to get a 1 year T/C fixed at USD 10,500 per day if at all. With respect to freight rates for Panamax and Supramax tonnage, they have lost ground since the beginning of March.
To sum up, our forecast for the coming 6 weeks: BIMCO holds the view that Capesize TC average rates are expected to remain subdued around USD 4,500-7,500 per day. Panamax is expected to stay in the USD 4,500-8,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 7,000-10,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-8,500 per day.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 13 December 22
AUSTRALIA TO CAP PRICES OF COAL, GAS TO DRIVE DOWN ENERGY BILLS - REUTERS
Australia will cap coal and gas prices for a year in a bid to shave utility bills for households and businesses hit by soaring costs because of the ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
YANCOAL AUSTRALIA TO PREPAY $459 MLN DEBT AS RECORD COAL PRICES BOOST CASHFLOWS - REUTERS
Coal miner Yancoal Australia Ltd. said on Friday it intended to prepay $459 million of its debt on or around Dec. 16, as elevated coal prices were ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
WHY COAL LEADS THE RISE IN COMMODITIES THIS YEAR - MARKETWATCH
This year marked a resurgence for coal, often known — and loathed — by environmentalists as the dirtiest energy source, with prices mor ...
Thursday, 08 December 22
BIMCO TO REVISE WAR RISK CLAUSES
Work to revise the BIMCO War Cancellation Clause 2004, the BIMCO War Risks Clause for Time Chartering 2013 (CONWARTIME 2013) and the BIMCO War Risk ...
Thursday, 08 December 22
COAL ROYALTY PAYMENTS BOOST AUSTRALIAN STATE'S BUDGET FORECAST - REUTERS
Australia’s Queensland state on Wednesday forecast a record surplus for the current financial year, largely driven by higher royalty payments ...
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- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
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