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Thursday, 13 June 13
BIMCO EXPECTS SUBDUED CAPESIZE EARNINGS FOR THE COMING WEEKS - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Bulk is not only about China even though it is a key driver. In this section, we have taken a closer look at the European seaborne coal markets, which is going through some interesting times right now. European coal demand has been in a slump ever since early 2009, where seaborne demand fell by 14 million tons from the first to the second quarter. Import volumes during the last three quarters of 2011 indicated that seaborne coal demand was recovering, but the development stalled somewhat in 2012. Looking on a country basis, the nation with the biggest decline was Italy, with annual seaborne imports being roughly 8 million tons lower today than before the financial crisis. France has also decreased its imports by around 4-5 million tons annually. The United Kingdom and Spain have weakened as well, but these countries seem to be on a rebound, with volumes being slightly below pre-financial crisis levels. The Netherlands and Germany have had relatively stable import numbers since 2005.
The bulk of seaborne coal going to Europe comes from North America, Colombia and Russia. The United States and Colombia have doubled their exports to Europe, while Russia has maintained its share of the European demand. Russian coal is shipped from both Russian and Latvian ports; Colombian coal is primarily shipped from the Caribbean, while US coal is primarily shipped from the Atlantic Coast and the Mexican Gulf. The drop in European seaborne demand for coal did not affect these countries, but rather South Africa. From being the single largest coal exporter to Europe with 52.0 million tons in 2005, the country has become a footnote, with 13.6 million tons in 2011. This represents bad business for the shipping industry, since the sailing distance from Richards Bay to Rotterdam is 98% longer than from Hampton Roads and 61% longer than from Puerto Bolivar.
Although European coal imports didn’t tell a particular positive story for shipping, US exports most certainly did. We expect to publish a story on this within the next couple of weeks.
On a more general note regarding the bulk market, China is expected to increase its imports of wheat, as sub-standard storage facilities have damaged a part of the huge Chinese stockpiles. Traders said that China is seeking to increase imports when global prices are in a slump. Current forward prices indicate that this may happen during the third quarter of 2013. According to Chinese customs statistics, the main exporters of wheat to China are Australia, Canada and United States, the latter two providing significant tonne miles.
Meanwhile, Argentina is exporting record high volumes of grains; CRSL reported that Argentina exported 4.86 million tons of grains in March – the highest number ever for a single month. This gave a spike in Panamax rates with the BPI staying just below the psychological barrier of USD 10,000 per day in March and April, but earnings are now slightly lower at around USD 7,000 per day. In our last report, we predicted that Panamax rates would stay in the USD 5,000-10,000 per day territory; going forward seasonal events like Argentinian exports are likely to provide for the upside ticks.
SUPPLY
New dry bulk deliveries walk the anticipated line and have now reached 29 million DWT. Meanwhile, 11 million DWT have been sold for recycling, which brings the year-to-date fleet growth up to 2.8%. The inflow is seen primarily in the Panamax segment, where 136 (in 2012: 162) new vessels are keeping Panamax fleet growth high. Simultaneously, the Capesize segment only saw 48 (in 2012: 115) new vessels coming on stream, eventually easing some of the pain from the current overcapacity.
Average age and size of the demolished tonnage is 28 years and 60,000 DWT. In line with the development seen in the last couple of years, the average age is still trending down – whereas the average size is essentially unchanged. BIMCO forecasts a slightly lower level of tonnage being demolished in 2013 as compared to last year; however, it is still going to be the second-largest year on record. The solid level of demolition prices will inspire owners to consider recycling, rather than trading their old tonnage in a very volatile market without certainty of sustainable freight rates and against more energy efficient tonnage.
As regards the orderbook, it’s also moving in the right direction in spite of the recent flurry of new orders for more fuel-efficient tonnage. During the past 10 weeks the number of newbuilding orders in the book has come down from 1,599 to 1,548. Finally, on the ordering side, strong interest in Capesizes remains evident, with 62 new orders in 2013. A total of 18 million DWT has been ordered in the year so far, with March and April seeing total new orders placed in excess of 4.5 million DWT each month.
OUTLOOK
The Summer lull is creeping up on dry bulk shipping demand following the successful South American grain season. Fortunately, solid demand is keeping spirits up in the dry bulk industry, while the severe extent of overcapacity is pushing the date for a full-blown recovery of earnings into a somewhat distant future. For now the market is getting more and more spot focused, as no owners want to commit tonnage for longer terms at offered levels. Don’t look at the paper market for any support, because you won’t find it. FFA indications (10/6) for Capesize tonnage go to the tune of USD per day: Q3-13, Q4-13, Cal 14 and Cal 15: 7,550, 12,000, 11,450 and 13,700 and for Supramax the indications go as follows in USD per day for the same dates: 7,900, 8,400, 8,600 and 8,900. USD per day in the spot market (10/6): Capesize for 5,571 and Supramax for 9,307.
Expect the unexpected from the dry bulk market seems to be the message passed on in recent years – and today is no different, as Handysize tonnage is earning USD 10,900 per day on an Atlantic round voyage whereas Capesizes are struggling to get a 1 year T/C fixed at USD 10,500 per day if at all. With respect to freight rates for Panamax and Supramax tonnage, they have lost ground since the beginning of March.
To sum up, our forecast for the coming 6 weeks: BIMCO holds the view that Capesize TC average rates are expected to remain subdued around USD 4,500-7,500 per day. Panamax is expected to stay in the USD 4,500-8,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 7,000-10,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-8,500 per day.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping News
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Monday, 19 December 22
ENERGY CRISIS FUELS COAL COMEBACK IN GERMANY - REUTERS
Coal has made a comeback in Germany this year, as Europe’s largest economy turns to the dirty fuel to power it through an energy crisis.
...
Thursday, 15 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While observing the ship repair market very close to the end of the year, we are confident that shipyards worldwide are entering a new era. The nex ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
STRONG COAL PRICES SUPPORT ROBUST EARNINGS AT INDONESIAN COAL MINERS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects cash flow generation at Indonesian coal miners to remain strong in 2023, based on its forecast for coal prices to remain high ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
BIMCO CII CLAUSE FINALLY RELEASED: DOES IT MAKE ANY SENSE OF CCI? - WFW
WHAT IS CII?
The new International Maritime Organisation’s (“IMO’s”) Carbon Intensity Indicator (“CII”) cer ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
COAL BASE RAMPS UP ENERGY SUPPLY FOR WINTER NEEDS - XINHUA
Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, China’s leading coal production base, has kicked its production into high gear to meet heating needs as col ...
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The University of Queensland
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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