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Thursday, 13 June 13
BIMCO EXPECTS SUBDUED CAPESIZE EARNINGS FOR THE COMING WEEKS - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Bulk is not only about China even though it is a key driver. In this section, we have taken a closer look at the European seaborne coal markets, which is going through some interesting times right now. European coal demand has been in a slump ever since early 2009, where seaborne demand fell by 14 million tons from the first to the second quarter. Import volumes during the last three quarters of 2011 indicated that seaborne coal demand was recovering, but the development stalled somewhat in 2012. Looking on a country basis, the nation with the biggest decline was Italy, with annual seaborne imports being roughly 8 million tons lower today than before the financial crisis. France has also decreased its imports by around 4-5 million tons annually. The United Kingdom and Spain have weakened as well, but these countries seem to be on a rebound, with volumes being slightly below pre-financial crisis levels. The Netherlands and Germany have had relatively stable import numbers since 2005.
The bulk of seaborne coal going to Europe comes from North America, Colombia and Russia. The United States and Colombia have doubled their exports to Europe, while Russia has maintained its share of the European demand. Russian coal is shipped from both Russian and Latvian ports; Colombian coal is primarily shipped from the Caribbean, while US coal is primarily shipped from the Atlantic Coast and the Mexican Gulf. The drop in European seaborne demand for coal did not affect these countries, but rather South Africa. From being the single largest coal exporter to Europe with 52.0 million tons in 2005, the country has become a footnote, with 13.6 million tons in 2011. This represents bad business for the shipping industry, since the sailing distance from Richards Bay to Rotterdam is 98% longer than from Hampton Roads and 61% longer than from Puerto Bolivar.
Although European coal imports didn’t tell a particular positive story for shipping, US exports most certainly did. We expect to publish a story on this within the next couple of weeks.
On a more general note regarding the bulk market, China is expected to increase its imports of wheat, as sub-standard storage facilities have damaged a part of the huge Chinese stockpiles. Traders said that China is seeking to increase imports when global prices are in a slump. Current forward prices indicate that this may happen during the third quarter of 2013. According to Chinese customs statistics, the main exporters of wheat to China are Australia, Canada and United States, the latter two providing significant tonne miles.
Meanwhile, Argentina is exporting record high volumes of grains; CRSL reported that Argentina exported 4.86 million tons of grains in March – the highest number ever for a single month. This gave a spike in Panamax rates with the BPI staying just below the psychological barrier of USD 10,000 per day in March and April, but earnings are now slightly lower at around USD 7,000 per day. In our last report, we predicted that Panamax rates would stay in the USD 5,000-10,000 per day territory; going forward seasonal events like Argentinian exports are likely to provide for the upside ticks.
SUPPLY
New dry bulk deliveries walk the anticipated line and have now reached 29 million DWT. Meanwhile, 11 million DWT have been sold for recycling, which brings the year-to-date fleet growth up to 2.8%. The inflow is seen primarily in the Panamax segment, where 136 (in 2012: 162) new vessels are keeping Panamax fleet growth high. Simultaneously, the Capesize segment only saw 48 (in 2012: 115) new vessels coming on stream, eventually easing some of the pain from the current overcapacity.
Average age and size of the demolished tonnage is 28 years and 60,000 DWT. In line with the development seen in the last couple of years, the average age is still trending down – whereas the average size is essentially unchanged. BIMCO forecasts a slightly lower level of tonnage being demolished in 2013 as compared to last year; however, it is still going to be the second-largest year on record. The solid level of demolition prices will inspire owners to consider recycling, rather than trading their old tonnage in a very volatile market without certainty of sustainable freight rates and against more energy efficient tonnage.
As regards the orderbook, it’s also moving in the right direction in spite of the recent flurry of new orders for more fuel-efficient tonnage. During the past 10 weeks the number of newbuilding orders in the book has come down from 1,599 to 1,548. Finally, on the ordering side, strong interest in Capesizes remains evident, with 62 new orders in 2013. A total of 18 million DWT has been ordered in the year so far, with March and April seeing total new orders placed in excess of 4.5 million DWT each month.
OUTLOOK
The Summer lull is creeping up on dry bulk shipping demand following the successful South American grain season. Fortunately, solid demand is keeping spirits up in the dry bulk industry, while the severe extent of overcapacity is pushing the date for a full-blown recovery of earnings into a somewhat distant future. For now the market is getting more and more spot focused, as no owners want to commit tonnage for longer terms at offered levels. Don’t look at the paper market for any support, because you won’t find it. FFA indications (10/6) for Capesize tonnage go to the tune of USD per day: Q3-13, Q4-13, Cal 14 and Cal 15: 7,550, 12,000, 11,450 and 13,700 and for Supramax the indications go as follows in USD per day for the same dates: 7,900, 8,400, 8,600 and 8,900. USD per day in the spot market (10/6): Capesize for 5,571 and Supramax for 9,307.
Expect the unexpected from the dry bulk market seems to be the message passed on in recent years – and today is no different, as Handysize tonnage is earning USD 10,900 per day on an Atlantic round voyage whereas Capesizes are struggling to get a 1 year T/C fixed at USD 10,500 per day if at all. With respect to freight rates for Panamax and Supramax tonnage, they have lost ground since the beginning of March.
To sum up, our forecast for the coming 6 weeks: BIMCO holds the view that Capesize TC average rates are expected to remain subdued around USD 4,500-7,500 per day. Panamax is expected to stay in the USD 4,500-8,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 7,000-10,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-8,500 per day.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping News
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Friday, 02 December 22
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE PLUNGE TOWARD US$ 281.48 A TON AS DEMAND DROPS WORLDWIDE
COALspot.com: The cost of coal is falling so fast that it is beginning to put real money back in the pockets of end-users.
Indonesia ...
Wednesday, 30 November 22
INDONESIA’S BUMI RESOURCES TARGETS 2023 COAL OUTPUT OF 80 MLN TONNES - REUTERS
Indonesian coal miner PT Bumi Resources Tbk BUMI.JKis eyeing a 10% increase in output to 80 million tonnes next year amid expectations for more fav ...
Wednesday, 30 November 22
TANKERS: LONGER HAULS TO SUPPORT CONTINUED STRENGTH - BIMCO
Highlights
A rebound in the dirty tanker trade has led the Baltic Exchange Dirty Index (BDTI) to increase by 64% since our last report from mid ...
Wednesday, 30 November 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Shipping, although a conservative and innovation adverse industry, is currently in a transition period of digital transformation. According to a su ...
Tuesday, 29 November 22
INDIA TO RECEIVE FIRST LNG CARGO FROM INDONESIA’S TANGGUH LNG - REUTERS
India will receive its first cargo from Indonesia’s Tangguh liquefied natural gas (LNG) plant at the Dahej terminal on Monday, according to a ...
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- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- White Energy Company Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Planning Commission, India
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