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Thursday, 13 June 13
BIMCO EXPECTS SUBDUED CAPESIZE EARNINGS FOR THE COMING WEEKS - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Bulk is not only about China even though it is a key driver. In this section, we have taken a closer look at the European seaborne coal markets, which is going through some interesting times right now. European coal demand has been in a slump ever since early 2009, where seaborne demand fell by 14 million tons from the first to the second quarter. Import volumes during the last three quarters of 2011 indicated that seaborne coal demand was recovering, but the development stalled somewhat in 2012. Looking on a country basis, the nation with the biggest decline was Italy, with annual seaborne imports being roughly 8 million tons lower today than before the financial crisis. France has also decreased its imports by around 4-5 million tons annually. The United Kingdom and Spain have weakened as well, but these countries seem to be on a rebound, with volumes being slightly below pre-financial crisis levels. The Netherlands and Germany have had relatively stable import numbers since 2005.
The bulk of seaborne coal going to Europe comes from North America, Colombia and Russia. The United States and Colombia have doubled their exports to Europe, while Russia has maintained its share of the European demand. Russian coal is shipped from both Russian and Latvian ports; Colombian coal is primarily shipped from the Caribbean, while US coal is primarily shipped from the Atlantic Coast and the Mexican Gulf. The drop in European seaborne demand for coal did not affect these countries, but rather South Africa. From being the single largest coal exporter to Europe with 52.0 million tons in 2005, the country has become a footnote, with 13.6 million tons in 2011. This represents bad business for the shipping industry, since the sailing distance from Richards Bay to Rotterdam is 98% longer than from Hampton Roads and 61% longer than from Puerto Bolivar.
Although European coal imports didn’t tell a particular positive story for shipping, US exports most certainly did. We expect to publish a story on this within the next couple of weeks.
On a more general note regarding the bulk market, China is expected to increase its imports of wheat, as sub-standard storage facilities have damaged a part of the huge Chinese stockpiles. Traders said that China is seeking to increase imports when global prices are in a slump. Current forward prices indicate that this may happen during the third quarter of 2013. According to Chinese customs statistics, the main exporters of wheat to China are Australia, Canada and United States, the latter two providing significant tonne miles.
Meanwhile, Argentina is exporting record high volumes of grains; CRSL reported that Argentina exported 4.86 million tons of grains in March – the highest number ever for a single month. This gave a spike in Panamax rates with the BPI staying just below the psychological barrier of USD 10,000 per day in March and April, but earnings are now slightly lower at around USD 7,000 per day. In our last report, we predicted that Panamax rates would stay in the USD 5,000-10,000 per day territory; going forward seasonal events like Argentinian exports are likely to provide for the upside ticks.
SUPPLY
New dry bulk deliveries walk the anticipated line and have now reached 29 million DWT. Meanwhile, 11 million DWT have been sold for recycling, which brings the year-to-date fleet growth up to 2.8%. The inflow is seen primarily in the Panamax segment, where 136 (in 2012: 162) new vessels are keeping Panamax fleet growth high. Simultaneously, the Capesize segment only saw 48 (in 2012: 115) new vessels coming on stream, eventually easing some of the pain from the current overcapacity.
Average age and size of the demolished tonnage is 28 years and 60,000 DWT. In line with the development seen in the last couple of years, the average age is still trending down – whereas the average size is essentially unchanged. BIMCO forecasts a slightly lower level of tonnage being demolished in 2013 as compared to last year; however, it is still going to be the second-largest year on record. The solid level of demolition prices will inspire owners to consider recycling, rather than trading their old tonnage in a very volatile market without certainty of sustainable freight rates and against more energy efficient tonnage.
As regards the orderbook, it’s also moving in the right direction in spite of the recent flurry of new orders for more fuel-efficient tonnage. During the past 10 weeks the number of newbuilding orders in the book has come down from 1,599 to 1,548. Finally, on the ordering side, strong interest in Capesizes remains evident, with 62 new orders in 2013. A total of 18 million DWT has been ordered in the year so far, with March and April seeing total new orders placed in excess of 4.5 million DWT each month.
OUTLOOK
The Summer lull is creeping up on dry bulk shipping demand following the successful South American grain season. Fortunately, solid demand is keeping spirits up in the dry bulk industry, while the severe extent of overcapacity is pushing the date for a full-blown recovery of earnings into a somewhat distant future. For now the market is getting more and more spot focused, as no owners want to commit tonnage for longer terms at offered levels. Don’t look at the paper market for any support, because you won’t find it. FFA indications (10/6) for Capesize tonnage go to the tune of USD per day: Q3-13, Q4-13, Cal 14 and Cal 15: 7,550, 12,000, 11,450 and 13,700 and for Supramax the indications go as follows in USD per day for the same dates: 7,900, 8,400, 8,600 and 8,900. USD per day in the spot market (10/6): Capesize for 5,571 and Supramax for 9,307.
Expect the unexpected from the dry bulk market seems to be the message passed on in recent years – and today is no different, as Handysize tonnage is earning USD 10,900 per day on an Atlantic round voyage whereas Capesizes are struggling to get a 1 year T/C fixed at USD 10,500 per day if at all. With respect to freight rates for Panamax and Supramax tonnage, they have lost ground since the beginning of March.
To sum up, our forecast for the coming 6 weeks: BIMCO holds the view that Capesize TC average rates are expected to remain subdued around USD 4,500-7,500 per day. Panamax is expected to stay in the USD 4,500-8,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 7,000-10,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-8,500 per day.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping News
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Thursday, 22 December 22
RUSSIAN OIL EXPORTS CRATER BY 54% IN THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF THE EU'S EMBARGO AMID A SHORTAGE OF TANKERS WILLING TO CARRY CARGOES - BUSINESS INSIDER
Since the European Union imposed its seaborne crude sanctions, Russian oil exports have tumbled by more than half, according to data compiled by Bl ...
Thursday, 22 December 22
CHINA TIGHTENS VERIFICATION OF SHIPS’ ENERGY CONSUMPTION DATA - GARD
From 22 December 2022, ships trading to Chinese ports must record their energy consumption data in accordance with the requirements of their Ship E ...
Thursday, 22 December 22
AN OVERVIEW OF THE LNG MARKET - VESSELSVALUE
LNG values have continued to strengthen, spurred by skyrocketing earnings that have surpassed last year’s record breaking peaks. In November, ...
Thursday, 22 December 22
COKING COAL SLUMPS AS TALKS ON AUSTRALIA-CHINA TRADE RIFT LOOM - REUTERS
Chinese coking coal futures dropped more than 3 per cent on Tuesday (Dec 20), extending losses, as supply of the steelmaking input might increase i ...
Thursday, 22 December 22
COAL AND GAS PRICE CAPS MAY COMPOUND POLITICAL RISK FOR AUSTRALIAN CORPORATES - FITCH RATINGS
Australia’s introduction of temporary price caps on domestic sales of gas and coal used for electricity generation will probably have limited ...
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- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The University of Queensland
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
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