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Thursday, 13 June 13
BIMCO EXPECTS SUBDUED CAPESIZE EARNINGS FOR THE COMING WEEKS - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Bulk is not only about China even though it is a key driver. In this section, we have taken a closer look at the European seaborne coal markets, which is going through some interesting times right now. European coal demand has been in a slump ever since early 2009, where seaborne demand fell by 14 million tons from the first to the second quarter. Import volumes during the last three quarters of 2011 indicated that seaborne coal demand was recovering, but the development stalled somewhat in 2012. Looking on a country basis, the nation with the biggest decline was Italy, with annual seaborne imports being roughly 8 million tons lower today than before the financial crisis. France has also decreased its imports by around 4-5 million tons annually. The United Kingdom and Spain have weakened as well, but these countries seem to be on a rebound, with volumes being slightly below pre-financial crisis levels. The Netherlands and Germany have had relatively stable import numbers since 2005.
The bulk of seaborne coal going to Europe comes from North America, Colombia and Russia. The United States and Colombia have doubled their exports to Europe, while Russia has maintained its share of the European demand. Russian coal is shipped from both Russian and Latvian ports; Colombian coal is primarily shipped from the Caribbean, while US coal is primarily shipped from the Atlantic Coast and the Mexican Gulf. The drop in European seaborne demand for coal did not affect these countries, but rather South Africa. From being the single largest coal exporter to Europe with 52.0 million tons in 2005, the country has become a footnote, with 13.6 million tons in 2011. This represents bad business for the shipping industry, since the sailing distance from Richards Bay to Rotterdam is 98% longer than from Hampton Roads and 61% longer than from Puerto Bolivar.
Although European coal imports didn’t tell a particular positive story for shipping, US exports most certainly did. We expect to publish a story on this within the next couple of weeks.
On a more general note regarding the bulk market, China is expected to increase its imports of wheat, as sub-standard storage facilities have damaged a part of the huge Chinese stockpiles. Traders said that China is seeking to increase imports when global prices are in a slump. Current forward prices indicate that this may happen during the third quarter of 2013. According to Chinese customs statistics, the main exporters of wheat to China are Australia, Canada and United States, the latter two providing significant tonne miles.
Meanwhile, Argentina is exporting record high volumes of grains; CRSL reported that Argentina exported 4.86 million tons of grains in March – the highest number ever for a single month. This gave a spike in Panamax rates with the BPI staying just below the psychological barrier of USD 10,000 per day in March and April, but earnings are now slightly lower at around USD 7,000 per day. In our last report, we predicted that Panamax rates would stay in the USD 5,000-10,000 per day territory; going forward seasonal events like Argentinian exports are likely to provide for the upside ticks.
SUPPLY
New dry bulk deliveries walk the anticipated line and have now reached 29 million DWT. Meanwhile, 11 million DWT have been sold for recycling, which brings the year-to-date fleet growth up to 2.8%. The inflow is seen primarily in the Panamax segment, where 136 (in 2012: 162) new vessels are keeping Panamax fleet growth high. Simultaneously, the Capesize segment only saw 48 (in 2012: 115) new vessels coming on stream, eventually easing some of the pain from the current overcapacity.
Average age and size of the demolished tonnage is 28 years and 60,000 DWT. In line with the development seen in the last couple of years, the average age is still trending down – whereas the average size is essentially unchanged. BIMCO forecasts a slightly lower level of tonnage being demolished in 2013 as compared to last year; however, it is still going to be the second-largest year on record. The solid level of demolition prices will inspire owners to consider recycling, rather than trading their old tonnage in a very volatile market without certainty of sustainable freight rates and against more energy efficient tonnage.
As regards the orderbook, it’s also moving in the right direction in spite of the recent flurry of new orders for more fuel-efficient tonnage. During the past 10 weeks the number of newbuilding orders in the book has come down from 1,599 to 1,548. Finally, on the ordering side, strong interest in Capesizes remains evident, with 62 new orders in 2013. A total of 18 million DWT has been ordered in the year so far, with March and April seeing total new orders placed in excess of 4.5 million DWT each month.
OUTLOOK
The Summer lull is creeping up on dry bulk shipping demand following the successful South American grain season. Fortunately, solid demand is keeping spirits up in the dry bulk industry, while the severe extent of overcapacity is pushing the date for a full-blown recovery of earnings into a somewhat distant future. For now the market is getting more and more spot focused, as no owners want to commit tonnage for longer terms at offered levels. Don’t look at the paper market for any support, because you won’t find it. FFA indications (10/6) for Capesize tonnage go to the tune of USD per day: Q3-13, Q4-13, Cal 14 and Cal 15: 7,550, 12,000, 11,450 and 13,700 and for Supramax the indications go as follows in USD per day for the same dates: 7,900, 8,400, 8,600 and 8,900. USD per day in the spot market (10/6): Capesize for 5,571 and Supramax for 9,307.
Expect the unexpected from the dry bulk market seems to be the message passed on in recent years – and today is no different, as Handysize tonnage is earning USD 10,900 per day on an Atlantic round voyage whereas Capesizes are struggling to get a 1 year T/C fixed at USD 10,500 per day if at all. With respect to freight rates for Panamax and Supramax tonnage, they have lost ground since the beginning of March.
To sum up, our forecast for the coming 6 weeks: BIMCO holds the view that Capesize TC average rates are expected to remain subdued around USD 4,500-7,500 per day. Panamax is expected to stay in the USD 4,500-8,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 7,000-10,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-8,500 per day.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping News
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Sunday, 26 February 23
MAWANI AND JEDDAH CHAMBER SIGN AN AGREEMENT TO BUILD INTEGRATED LOGISTICS PARK
Press Release: The Saudi Ports Authority (Mawani) and Jeddah Chamber of Commerce and Industry have today inked an agreement to set up an integrated ...
Saturday, 25 February 23
INDONESIA IS STILL BY FAR THE TOP SUPPLIER OF COAL TO CHINA - BANCHERO COSTA
After a slow start in the first quarter, global coal trade has really picked up pace last year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels, said ban ...
Wednesday, 22 February 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The short-term outlook of the global soybean market is currently pivoted by a combination of weather patterns that are affecting the harvest progre ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
OIL UNLIKELY TO BREAK ABOVE $100/BBL THIS YEAR, J.P.MORGAN SAYS –- REUTERS
Brent oil prices are unlikely to breach the $100 a barrel level this year, barring any significant geopolitical drivers, with OPEC+ potentially add ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
CHINA'S COAL PRICES FALL TO 1 YR-LOW, CLOUDING DEMAND AND IMPORT OUTLOOK - REUTERS
China’s thermal coal prices hit their lowest levels in a year this week on rising inventories as domestic mine production is recovering faste ...
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- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The University of Queensland
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
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