We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Thursday, 13 June 13
BIMCO EXPECTS SUBDUED CAPESIZE EARNINGS FOR THE COMING WEEKS - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Bulk is not only about China even though it is a key driver. In this section, we have taken a closer look at the European seaborne coal markets, which is going through some interesting times right now. European coal demand has been in a slump ever since early 2009, where seaborne demand fell by 14 million tons from the first to the second quarter. Import volumes during the last three quarters of 2011 indicated that seaborne coal demand was recovering, but the development stalled somewhat in 2012. Looking on a country basis, the nation with the biggest decline was Italy, with annual seaborne imports being roughly 8 million tons lower today than before the financial crisis. France has also decreased its imports by around 4-5 million tons annually. The United Kingdom and Spain have weakened as well, but these countries seem to be on a rebound, with volumes being slightly below pre-financial crisis levels. The Netherlands and Germany have had relatively stable import numbers since 2005.
The bulk of seaborne coal going to Europe comes from North America, Colombia and Russia. The United States and Colombia have doubled their exports to Europe, while Russia has maintained its share of the European demand. Russian coal is shipped from both Russian and Latvian ports; Colombian coal is primarily shipped from the Caribbean, while US coal is primarily shipped from the Atlantic Coast and the Mexican Gulf. The drop in European seaborne demand for coal did not affect these countries, but rather South Africa. From being the single largest coal exporter to Europe with 52.0 million tons in 2005, the country has become a footnote, with 13.6 million tons in 2011. This represents bad business for the shipping industry, since the sailing distance from Richards Bay to Rotterdam is 98% longer than from Hampton Roads and 61% longer than from Puerto Bolivar.
Although European coal imports didn’t tell a particular positive story for shipping, US exports most certainly did. We expect to publish a story on this within the next couple of weeks.
On a more general note regarding the bulk market, China is expected to increase its imports of wheat, as sub-standard storage facilities have damaged a part of the huge Chinese stockpiles. Traders said that China is seeking to increase imports when global prices are in a slump. Current forward prices indicate that this may happen during the third quarter of 2013. According to Chinese customs statistics, the main exporters of wheat to China are Australia, Canada and United States, the latter two providing significant tonne miles.
Meanwhile, Argentina is exporting record high volumes of grains; CRSL reported that Argentina exported 4.86 million tons of grains in March – the highest number ever for a single month. This gave a spike in Panamax rates with the BPI staying just below the psychological barrier of USD 10,000 per day in March and April, but earnings are now slightly lower at around USD 7,000 per day. In our last report, we predicted that Panamax rates would stay in the USD 5,000-10,000 per day territory; going forward seasonal events like Argentinian exports are likely to provide for the upside ticks.
SUPPLY
New dry bulk deliveries walk the anticipated line and have now reached 29 million DWT. Meanwhile, 11 million DWT have been sold for recycling, which brings the year-to-date fleet growth up to 2.8%. The inflow is seen primarily in the Panamax segment, where 136 (in 2012: 162) new vessels are keeping Panamax fleet growth high. Simultaneously, the Capesize segment only saw 48 (in 2012: 115) new vessels coming on stream, eventually easing some of the pain from the current overcapacity.
Average age and size of the demolished tonnage is 28 years and 60,000 DWT. In line with the development seen in the last couple of years, the average age is still trending down – whereas the average size is essentially unchanged. BIMCO forecasts a slightly lower level of tonnage being demolished in 2013 as compared to last year; however, it is still going to be the second-largest year on record. The solid level of demolition prices will inspire owners to consider recycling, rather than trading their old tonnage in a very volatile market without certainty of sustainable freight rates and against more energy efficient tonnage.
As regards the orderbook, it’s also moving in the right direction in spite of the recent flurry of new orders for more fuel-efficient tonnage. During the past 10 weeks the number of newbuilding orders in the book has come down from 1,599 to 1,548. Finally, on the ordering side, strong interest in Capesizes remains evident, with 62 new orders in 2013. A total of 18 million DWT has been ordered in the year so far, with March and April seeing total new orders placed in excess of 4.5 million DWT each month.
OUTLOOK
The Summer lull is creeping up on dry bulk shipping demand following the successful South American grain season. Fortunately, solid demand is keeping spirits up in the dry bulk industry, while the severe extent of overcapacity is pushing the date for a full-blown recovery of earnings into a somewhat distant future. For now the market is getting more and more spot focused, as no owners want to commit tonnage for longer terms at offered levels. Don’t look at the paper market for any support, because you won’t find it. FFA indications (10/6) for Capesize tonnage go to the tune of USD per day: Q3-13, Q4-13, Cal 14 and Cal 15: 7,550, 12,000, 11,450 and 13,700 and for Supramax the indications go as follows in USD per day for the same dates: 7,900, 8,400, 8,600 and 8,900. USD per day in the spot market (10/6): Capesize for 5,571 and Supramax for 9,307.
Expect the unexpected from the dry bulk market seems to be the message passed on in recent years – and today is no different, as Handysize tonnage is earning USD 10,900 per day on an Atlantic round voyage whereas Capesizes are struggling to get a 1 year T/C fixed at USD 10,500 per day if at all. With respect to freight rates for Panamax and Supramax tonnage, they have lost ground since the beginning of March.
To sum up, our forecast for the coming 6 weeks: BIMCO holds the view that Capesize TC average rates are expected to remain subdued around USD 4,500-7,500 per day. Panamax is expected to stay in the USD 4,500-8,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 7,000-10,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-8,500 per day.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping News
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Saturday, 18 March 23
HEDGE TO OFFSET LNG VOLATILITY, TRADERS TOLD - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A shift in imports from Asia to Europe led to significant volatility in liquefied natural gas shipping last year, prompting industry experts to urg ...
Friday, 17 March 23
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE UP AROUND 2.17% IN MARCH 2023
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference up around 2.17% in March 2023.
According to the new HBA regulation No. 41.K/MB.0 ...
Saturday, 11 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Uncertainty over the recovery of Chinese demand, demand destruction in Europe, as well as weather conditions will pivot the LNG market this summer. ...
Wednesday, 08 March 23
INDONESIAN COAL REFERENCE PRICE FORMULA HAS OFFICIALLY CHANGED
Indonesian Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources has officially changed the guideline for determining the benchmark price for the sale of coal c ...
Thursday, 02 March 23
INDIA'S SEABORNE CRUDE OIL IMPORTS IN 2022 INCREASED BY 11.5% YOY - BANCHERO COSTA
2022 has turned out to be a very positive year for crude oil trade, despite the surging oil prices and risks of economic recession, Banchero Costa ...
|
|
|
Showing 126 to 130 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Australian Coal Association
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
|
| |
| |
|
