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Wednesday, 22 February 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The short-term outlook of the global soybean market is currently pivoted by a combination of weather patterns that are affecting the harvest progress, as well as tensions in diplomatic relations between China and the US which could result in trade disruptions. According to USDA, global production of soybeans for the 2022/23 season is forecast at 385.04 million tons, up 7.6% y-o-y. Meanwhile, China’s highly anticipated recovery will also be reflected in the normalization of the country’s soybean consumption and imports after falling for two consecutive years. More specifically, according to Casde’s (China Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates) latest estimates, the country’s imports for 2023 are projected to grow 8.3% y-o-y to 95.2 million tons.
In Brazil, the harvest season is currently ongoing. However, the country’s highly anticipated monster crop is dampened by harvest delays due to unfavorable weather conditions. According to CONAB, Brazil’s soybeans were 15.4% harvested nationally on Feb-13, which is well behind last year’s pace of 25%. Overall, Brazil's soybean output is projected slightly lower than previous forecasts at 154.0 million tons amid harvest delays and lower quality caused by adverse wet weather in significant Central-West and Southeast regions. Soybean exports are forecast at 92.8 million tons. Harvest delays have resulted in lower exports to China during January and February. Chinese imports from Brazil are estimated to recover from mid-April when the record crop will start making its way to the country.
In the US, following unusually low temperatures registered in mid-October across the soy belt, the favorable weather conditions during the late season and the current rapid progress of the harvest are estimated to result in healthy production of 4.33 billion bushels, slightly above last season’s output of 4.14 billion bushels, according to USDA forecasts, while exports are estimated at 1.99 billion bushels. Following a slow start to the season, US exports have taken off in January as Brazil is in the early stages of collecting its record harvest. US exports to China are buoyed by a bullish combination of delayed harvest in Brazil and a historic drought in Argentina resulting in lower yields. In January, the US exported 5.5 million tons to China, a figure that stands 33.7% above the 5-year average. In February, exports will remain firm according to our data, close to the 5-year high. Even if US exports slow down when Brazil’s harvest progresses, total bookings are enough to maintain at least moderate shipments in the short term. However, fears are lingering following the shoot-down of the Chinese balloon earlier this month which could possibly create tensions and disrupt current purchases.
In Argentina, total soybean output is forecast to be 40.6 million tons, down from 4.3 million tons in 2021/22, due to historically low vegetation levels across the Pampas, in what could be translated into the toughest growing season in history, especially for Santa Fe and Entre Rios. Given that the production damage from the early season delays will be felt soon and that a probable growth curve shift could cause crops to miss their ideal growing windows, the chances of a major yield recovery in these two crucial regions seem poor to none. The current unfavorable fundamentals will be reflected in limited soybean supply for export. More specifically, if unfavorable weather persists, the country could turn to the US for imports as it did in 2018 after experiencing similar weather conditions. In addition, the country has also reportedly purchased an unusual amount of 200,000-300,000 soybeans from Brazil, according to Anec.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 26 February 23
MAWANI AND JEDDAH CHAMBER SIGN AN AGREEMENT TO BUILD INTEGRATED LOGISTICS PARK
Press Release: The Saudi Ports Authority (Mawani) and Jeddah Chamber of Commerce and Industry have today inked an agreement to set up an integrated ...
Saturday, 25 February 23
INDONESIA IS STILL BY FAR THE TOP SUPPLIER OF COAL TO CHINA - BANCHERO COSTA
After a slow start in the first quarter, global coal trade has really picked up pace last year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels, said ban ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
OIL UNLIKELY TO BREAK ABOVE $100/BBL THIS YEAR, J.P.MORGAN SAYS –- REUTERS
Brent oil prices are unlikely to breach the $100 a barrel level this year, barring any significant geopolitical drivers, with OPEC+ potentially add ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
CHINA'S COAL PRICES FALL TO 1 YR-LOW, CLOUDING DEMAND AND IMPORT OUTLOOK - REUTERS
China’s thermal coal prices hit their lowest levels in a year this week on rising inventories as domestic mine production is recovering faste ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
PAKISTAN PLANS TO QUADRUPLE DOMESTIC COAL-FIRED POWER, MOVE AWAY FROM GAS - REUTERS
Pakistan plans to quadruple its domestic coal-fired capacity to reduce power generation costs and will not build new gas-fired plants in the coming ...
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- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- White Energy Company Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
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