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Wednesday, 22 February 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The short-term outlook of the global soybean market is currently pivoted by a combination of weather patterns that are affecting the harvest progress, as well as tensions in diplomatic relations between China and the US which could result in trade disruptions. According to USDA, global production of soybeans for the 2022/23 season is forecast at 385.04 million tons, up 7.6% y-o-y. Meanwhile, China’s highly anticipated recovery will also be reflected in the normalization of the country’s soybean consumption and imports after falling for two consecutive years. More specifically, according to Casde’s (China Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates) latest estimates, the country’s imports for 2023 are projected to grow 8.3% y-o-y to 95.2 million tons.
In Brazil, the harvest season is currently ongoing. However, the country’s highly anticipated monster crop is dampened by harvest delays due to unfavorable weather conditions. According to CONAB, Brazil’s soybeans were 15.4% harvested nationally on Feb-13, which is well behind last year’s pace of 25%. Overall, Brazil's soybean output is projected slightly lower than previous forecasts at 154.0 million tons amid harvest delays and lower quality caused by adverse wet weather in significant Central-West and Southeast regions. Soybean exports are forecast at 92.8 million tons. Harvest delays have resulted in lower exports to China during January and February. Chinese imports from Brazil are estimated to recover from mid-April when the record crop will start making its way to the country.
In the US, following unusually low temperatures registered in mid-October across the soy belt, the favorable weather conditions during the late season and the current rapid progress of the harvest are estimated to result in healthy production of 4.33 billion bushels, slightly above last season’s output of 4.14 billion bushels, according to USDA forecasts, while exports are estimated at 1.99 billion bushels. Following a slow start to the season, US exports have taken off in January as Brazil is in the early stages of collecting its record harvest. US exports to China are buoyed by a bullish combination of delayed harvest in Brazil and a historic drought in Argentina resulting in lower yields. In January, the US exported 5.5 million tons to China, a figure that stands 33.7% above the 5-year average. In February, exports will remain firm according to our data, close to the 5-year high. Even if US exports slow down when Brazil’s harvest progresses, total bookings are enough to maintain at least moderate shipments in the short term. However, fears are lingering following the shoot-down of the Chinese balloon earlier this month which could possibly create tensions and disrupt current purchases.
In Argentina, total soybean output is forecast to be 40.6 million tons, down from 4.3 million tons in 2021/22, due to historically low vegetation levels across the Pampas, in what could be translated into the toughest growing season in history, especially for Santa Fe and Entre Rios. Given that the production damage from the early season delays will be felt soon and that a probable growth curve shift could cause crops to miss their ideal growing windows, the chances of a major yield recovery in these two crucial regions seem poor to none. The current unfavorable fundamentals will be reflected in limited soybean supply for export. More specifically, if unfavorable weather persists, the country could turn to the US for imports as it did in 2018 after experiencing similar weather conditions. In addition, the country has also reportedly purchased an unusual amount of 200,000-300,000 soybeans from Brazil, according to Anec.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 26 February 23
MAWANI AND JEDDAH CHAMBER SIGN AN AGREEMENT TO BUILD INTEGRATED LOGISTICS PARK
Press Release: The Saudi Ports Authority (Mawani) and Jeddah Chamber of Commerce and Industry have today inked an agreement to set up an integrated ...
Saturday, 25 February 23
INDONESIA IS STILL BY FAR THE TOP SUPPLIER OF COAL TO CHINA - BANCHERO COSTA
After a slow start in the first quarter, global coal trade has really picked up pace last year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels, said ban ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
OIL UNLIKELY TO BREAK ABOVE $100/BBL THIS YEAR, J.P.MORGAN SAYS –- REUTERS
Brent oil prices are unlikely to breach the $100 a barrel level this year, barring any significant geopolitical drivers, with OPEC+ potentially add ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
CHINA'S COAL PRICES FALL TO 1 YR-LOW, CLOUDING DEMAND AND IMPORT OUTLOOK - REUTERS
China’s thermal coal prices hit their lowest levels in a year this week on rising inventories as domestic mine production is recovering faste ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
PAKISTAN PLANS TO QUADRUPLE DOMESTIC COAL-FIRED POWER, MOVE AWAY FROM GAS - REUTERS
Pakistan plans to quadruple its domestic coal-fired capacity to reduce power generation costs and will not build new gas-fired plants in the coming ...
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- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Australian Coal Association
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
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