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Thursday, 13 June 13
BIMCO EXPECTS SUBDUED CAPESIZE EARNINGS FOR THE COMING WEEKS - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Bulk is not only about China even though it is a key driver. In this section, we have taken a closer look at the European seaborne coal markets, which is going through some interesting times right now. European coal demand has been in a slump ever since early 2009, where seaborne demand fell by 14 million tons from the first to the second quarter. Import volumes during the last three quarters of 2011 indicated that seaborne coal demand was recovering, but the development stalled somewhat in 2012. Looking on a country basis, the nation with the biggest decline was Italy, with annual seaborne imports being roughly 8 million tons lower today than before the financial crisis. France has also decreased its imports by around 4-5 million tons annually. The United Kingdom and Spain have weakened as well, but these countries seem to be on a rebound, with volumes being slightly below pre-financial crisis levels. The Netherlands and Germany have had relatively stable import numbers since 2005.
The bulk of seaborne coal going to Europe comes from North America, Colombia and Russia. The United States and Colombia have doubled their exports to Europe, while Russia has maintained its share of the European demand. Russian coal is shipped from both Russian and Latvian ports; Colombian coal is primarily shipped from the Caribbean, while US coal is primarily shipped from the Atlantic Coast and the Mexican Gulf. The drop in European seaborne demand for coal did not affect these countries, but rather South Africa. From being the single largest coal exporter to Europe with 52.0 million tons in 2005, the country has become a footnote, with 13.6 million tons in 2011. This represents bad business for the shipping industry, since the sailing distance from Richards Bay to Rotterdam is 98% longer than from Hampton Roads and 61% longer than from Puerto Bolivar.
Although European coal imports didn’t tell a particular positive story for shipping, US exports most certainly did. We expect to publish a story on this within the next couple of weeks.
On a more general note regarding the bulk market, China is expected to increase its imports of wheat, as sub-standard storage facilities have damaged a part of the huge Chinese stockpiles. Traders said that China is seeking to increase imports when global prices are in a slump. Current forward prices indicate that this may happen during the third quarter of 2013. According to Chinese customs statistics, the main exporters of wheat to China are Australia, Canada and United States, the latter two providing significant tonne miles.
Meanwhile, Argentina is exporting record high volumes of grains; CRSL reported that Argentina exported 4.86 million tons of grains in March – the highest number ever for a single month. This gave a spike in Panamax rates with the BPI staying just below the psychological barrier of USD 10,000 per day in March and April, but earnings are now slightly lower at around USD 7,000 per day. In our last report, we predicted that Panamax rates would stay in the USD 5,000-10,000 per day territory; going forward seasonal events like Argentinian exports are likely to provide for the upside ticks.
SUPPLY
New dry bulk deliveries walk the anticipated line and have now reached 29 million DWT. Meanwhile, 11 million DWT have been sold for recycling, which brings the year-to-date fleet growth up to 2.8%. The inflow is seen primarily in the Panamax segment, where 136 (in 2012: 162) new vessels are keeping Panamax fleet growth high. Simultaneously, the Capesize segment only saw 48 (in 2012: 115) new vessels coming on stream, eventually easing some of the pain from the current overcapacity.
Average age and size of the demolished tonnage is 28 years and 60,000 DWT. In line with the development seen in the last couple of years, the average age is still trending down – whereas the average size is essentially unchanged. BIMCO forecasts a slightly lower level of tonnage being demolished in 2013 as compared to last year; however, it is still going to be the second-largest year on record. The solid level of demolition prices will inspire owners to consider recycling, rather than trading their old tonnage in a very volatile market without certainty of sustainable freight rates and against more energy efficient tonnage.
As regards the orderbook, it’s also moving in the right direction in spite of the recent flurry of new orders for more fuel-efficient tonnage. During the past 10 weeks the number of newbuilding orders in the book has come down from 1,599 to 1,548. Finally, on the ordering side, strong interest in Capesizes remains evident, with 62 new orders in 2013. A total of 18 million DWT has been ordered in the year so far, with March and April seeing total new orders placed in excess of 4.5 million DWT each month.
OUTLOOK
The Summer lull is creeping up on dry bulk shipping demand following the successful South American grain season. Fortunately, solid demand is keeping spirits up in the dry bulk industry, while the severe extent of overcapacity is pushing the date for a full-blown recovery of earnings into a somewhat distant future. For now the market is getting more and more spot focused, as no owners want to commit tonnage for longer terms at offered levels. Don’t look at the paper market for any support, because you won’t find it. FFA indications (10/6) for Capesize tonnage go to the tune of USD per day: Q3-13, Q4-13, Cal 14 and Cal 15: 7,550, 12,000, 11,450 and 13,700 and for Supramax the indications go as follows in USD per day for the same dates: 7,900, 8,400, 8,600 and 8,900. USD per day in the spot market (10/6): Capesize for 5,571 and Supramax for 9,307.
Expect the unexpected from the dry bulk market seems to be the message passed on in recent years – and today is no different, as Handysize tonnage is earning USD 10,900 per day on an Atlantic round voyage whereas Capesizes are struggling to get a 1 year T/C fixed at USD 10,500 per day if at all. With respect to freight rates for Panamax and Supramax tonnage, they have lost ground since the beginning of March.
To sum up, our forecast for the coming 6 weeks: BIMCO holds the view that Capesize TC average rates are expected to remain subdued around USD 4,500-7,500 per day. Panamax is expected to stay in the USD 4,500-8,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 7,000-10,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-8,500 per day.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping News
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Thursday, 26 January 23
AUSTRALIA'S CORONADO GLOBAL SEES COAL PRICES RISING ON RESUMING CHINA IMPORTS - REUTERS
Australia’s Coronado Global Resources said on Tuesday resuming metallurgical coal imports to China would likely push sea-borne coal prices hi ...
Monday, 23 January 23
CHINA'S MAJOR COAL-PRODUCING PROVINCE ACCELERATES DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION - XINHUA
At Chindata Group’s big-data industrial park in Lingqiu County of Datong City, hundreds of thousands of servers are running round-the-clock t ...
Monday, 23 January 23
CHINA'S COAL-RICH PROVINCE SEES COAL PRODUCTION INCREASE IN 2022 - XINHUA
North China’s coal-rich province of Shanxi saw its coal production hit 1.31 billion tonnes in 2022, up 8.7 percent year on year, local author ...
Wednesday, 18 January 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
From Feb 5, another price cap will be introduced to Russian fuels and oil products, adding to the one for crude oil, already in place from Dec. 3. ...
Tuesday, 17 January 23
FRAUD IS THE BIGGEST THREAT TO CARGO LOSSES - TT CLUB
The almost exclusive use of online facilities to process business transactions allows a myriad of fraudulent pursuits to find opportunities within ...
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- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Planning Commission, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
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