We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Thursday, 13 June 13
BIMCO EXPECTS SUBDUED CAPESIZE EARNINGS FOR THE COMING WEEKS - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Bulk is not only about China even though it is a key driver. In this section, we have taken a closer look at the European seaborne coal markets, which is going through some interesting times right now. European coal demand has been in a slump ever since early 2009, where seaborne demand fell by 14 million tons from the first to the second quarter. Import volumes during the last three quarters of 2011 indicated that seaborne coal demand was recovering, but the development stalled somewhat in 2012. Looking on a country basis, the nation with the biggest decline was Italy, with annual seaborne imports being roughly 8 million tons lower today than before the financial crisis. France has also decreased its imports by around 4-5 million tons annually. The United Kingdom and Spain have weakened as well, but these countries seem to be on a rebound, with volumes being slightly below pre-financial crisis levels. The Netherlands and Germany have had relatively stable import numbers since 2005.
The bulk of seaborne coal going to Europe comes from North America, Colombia and Russia. The United States and Colombia have doubled their exports to Europe, while Russia has maintained its share of the European demand. Russian coal is shipped from both Russian and Latvian ports; Colombian coal is primarily shipped from the Caribbean, while US coal is primarily shipped from the Atlantic Coast and the Mexican Gulf. The drop in European seaborne demand for coal did not affect these countries, but rather South Africa. From being the single largest coal exporter to Europe with 52.0 million tons in 2005, the country has become a footnote, with 13.6 million tons in 2011. This represents bad business for the shipping industry, since the sailing distance from Richards Bay to Rotterdam is 98% longer than from Hampton Roads and 61% longer than from Puerto Bolivar.
Although European coal imports didn’t tell a particular positive story for shipping, US exports most certainly did. We expect to publish a story on this within the next couple of weeks.
On a more general note regarding the bulk market, China is expected to increase its imports of wheat, as sub-standard storage facilities have damaged a part of the huge Chinese stockpiles. Traders said that China is seeking to increase imports when global prices are in a slump. Current forward prices indicate that this may happen during the third quarter of 2013. According to Chinese customs statistics, the main exporters of wheat to China are Australia, Canada and United States, the latter two providing significant tonne miles.
Meanwhile, Argentina is exporting record high volumes of grains; CRSL reported that Argentina exported 4.86 million tons of grains in March – the highest number ever for a single month. This gave a spike in Panamax rates with the BPI staying just below the psychological barrier of USD 10,000 per day in March and April, but earnings are now slightly lower at around USD 7,000 per day. In our last report, we predicted that Panamax rates would stay in the USD 5,000-10,000 per day territory; going forward seasonal events like Argentinian exports are likely to provide for the upside ticks.
SUPPLY
New dry bulk deliveries walk the anticipated line and have now reached 29 million DWT. Meanwhile, 11 million DWT have been sold for recycling, which brings the year-to-date fleet growth up to 2.8%. The inflow is seen primarily in the Panamax segment, where 136 (in 2012: 162) new vessels are keeping Panamax fleet growth high. Simultaneously, the Capesize segment only saw 48 (in 2012: 115) new vessels coming on stream, eventually easing some of the pain from the current overcapacity.
Average age and size of the demolished tonnage is 28 years and 60,000 DWT. In line with the development seen in the last couple of years, the average age is still trending down – whereas the average size is essentially unchanged. BIMCO forecasts a slightly lower level of tonnage being demolished in 2013 as compared to last year; however, it is still going to be the second-largest year on record. The solid level of demolition prices will inspire owners to consider recycling, rather than trading their old tonnage in a very volatile market without certainty of sustainable freight rates and against more energy efficient tonnage.
As regards the orderbook, it’s also moving in the right direction in spite of the recent flurry of new orders for more fuel-efficient tonnage. During the past 10 weeks the number of newbuilding orders in the book has come down from 1,599 to 1,548. Finally, on the ordering side, strong interest in Capesizes remains evident, with 62 new orders in 2013. A total of 18 million DWT has been ordered in the year so far, with March and April seeing total new orders placed in excess of 4.5 million DWT each month.
OUTLOOK
The Summer lull is creeping up on dry bulk shipping demand following the successful South American grain season. Fortunately, solid demand is keeping spirits up in the dry bulk industry, while the severe extent of overcapacity is pushing the date for a full-blown recovery of earnings into a somewhat distant future. For now the market is getting more and more spot focused, as no owners want to commit tonnage for longer terms at offered levels. Don’t look at the paper market for any support, because you won’t find it. FFA indications (10/6) for Capesize tonnage go to the tune of USD per day: Q3-13, Q4-13, Cal 14 and Cal 15: 7,550, 12,000, 11,450 and 13,700 and for Supramax the indications go as follows in USD per day for the same dates: 7,900, 8,400, 8,600 and 8,900. USD per day in the spot market (10/6): Capesize for 5,571 and Supramax for 9,307.
Expect the unexpected from the dry bulk market seems to be the message passed on in recent years – and today is no different, as Handysize tonnage is earning USD 10,900 per day on an Atlantic round voyage whereas Capesizes are struggling to get a 1 year T/C fixed at USD 10,500 per day if at all. With respect to freight rates for Panamax and Supramax tonnage, they have lost ground since the beginning of March.
To sum up, our forecast for the coming 6 weeks: BIMCO holds the view that Capesize TC average rates are expected to remain subdued around USD 4,500-7,500 per day. Panamax is expected to stay in the USD 4,500-8,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 7,000-10,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-8,500 per day.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping News
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Thursday, 02 March 23
DRY BULK MARKET: THE WAY CHINA GOES, SO GOES THE MARKET - BIMCO
We expect demand growth within the 1.5-2.5% range in 2023, driven by China’s economic recovery. Improvements in consumer sentiment should hel ...
Thursday, 02 March 23
INDIA, CHINA DEMAND BOOST LOW-RANK THERMAL COAL PRICES IN ASIA - RUSSELL, REUTERS
Signs of stronger import demand from India have arrested the decline in price of the thermal coal grades most commonly sought by the world’s ...
Thursday, 02 March 23
INDIA CHEERS THE RETURN OF ‘KING COAL’ AS INDUSTRY SEES BUOYANT FUTURE - REUTERS
India’s coal industry celebrated the return of its major conference after a three-year pandemic hiatus by presenting a bullish view of demand ...
Wednesday, 01 March 23
GEO CONNECT ASIA RETURNS IN MARCH TO ACCELERATE THE REGION’S GEOSPATIAL AND LOCATION INTELLIGENCE CAPABILITIES
Press Release: The third edition of GCA will be held in conjunction with Digital Construction Asia and the inaugural Drones Asia – an event d ...
Wednesday, 01 March 23
THE DECLINE IN THE COAL PRICE SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANT - INTERMODAL
Last week, the front-month API2 future rose by 3.5%, but since the beginning of the year the future has fallen by 39% to $136.65/t, while the Newca ...
|
|
|
Showing 131 to 135 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Australian Coal Association
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
|
| |
| |
|
