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Thursday, 13 June 13
BIMCO EXPECTS SUBDUED CAPESIZE EARNINGS FOR THE COMING WEEKS - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Bulk is not only about China even though it is a key driver. In this section, we have taken a closer look at the European seaborne coal markets, which is going through some interesting times right now. European coal demand has been in a slump ever since early 2009, where seaborne demand fell by 14 million tons from the first to the second quarter. Import volumes during the last three quarters of 2011 indicated that seaborne coal demand was recovering, but the development stalled somewhat in 2012. Looking on a country basis, the nation with the biggest decline was Italy, with annual seaborne imports being roughly 8 million tons lower today than before the financial crisis. France has also decreased its imports by around 4-5 million tons annually. The United Kingdom and Spain have weakened as well, but these countries seem to be on a rebound, with volumes being slightly below pre-financial crisis levels. The Netherlands and Germany have had relatively stable import numbers since 2005.
The bulk of seaborne coal going to Europe comes from North America, Colombia and Russia. The United States and Colombia have doubled their exports to Europe, while Russia has maintained its share of the European demand. Russian coal is shipped from both Russian and Latvian ports; Colombian coal is primarily shipped from the Caribbean, while US coal is primarily shipped from the Atlantic Coast and the Mexican Gulf. The drop in European seaborne demand for coal did not affect these countries, but rather South Africa. From being the single largest coal exporter to Europe with 52.0 million tons in 2005, the country has become a footnote, with 13.6 million tons in 2011. This represents bad business for the shipping industry, since the sailing distance from Richards Bay to Rotterdam is 98% longer than from Hampton Roads and 61% longer than from Puerto Bolivar.
Although European coal imports didn’t tell a particular positive story for shipping, US exports most certainly did. We expect to publish a story on this within the next couple of weeks.
On a more general note regarding the bulk market, China is expected to increase its imports of wheat, as sub-standard storage facilities have damaged a part of the huge Chinese stockpiles. Traders said that China is seeking to increase imports when global prices are in a slump. Current forward prices indicate that this may happen during the third quarter of 2013. According to Chinese customs statistics, the main exporters of wheat to China are Australia, Canada and United States, the latter two providing significant tonne miles.
Meanwhile, Argentina is exporting record high volumes of grains; CRSL reported that Argentina exported 4.86 million tons of grains in March – the highest number ever for a single month. This gave a spike in Panamax rates with the BPI staying just below the psychological barrier of USD 10,000 per day in March and April, but earnings are now slightly lower at around USD 7,000 per day. In our last report, we predicted that Panamax rates would stay in the USD 5,000-10,000 per day territory; going forward seasonal events like Argentinian exports are likely to provide for the upside ticks.
SUPPLY
New dry bulk deliveries walk the anticipated line and have now reached 29 million DWT. Meanwhile, 11 million DWT have been sold for recycling, which brings the year-to-date fleet growth up to 2.8%. The inflow is seen primarily in the Panamax segment, where 136 (in 2012: 162) new vessels are keeping Panamax fleet growth high. Simultaneously, the Capesize segment only saw 48 (in 2012: 115) new vessels coming on stream, eventually easing some of the pain from the current overcapacity.
Average age and size of the demolished tonnage is 28 years and 60,000 DWT. In line with the development seen in the last couple of years, the average age is still trending down – whereas the average size is essentially unchanged. BIMCO forecasts a slightly lower level of tonnage being demolished in 2013 as compared to last year; however, it is still going to be the second-largest year on record. The solid level of demolition prices will inspire owners to consider recycling, rather than trading their old tonnage in a very volatile market without certainty of sustainable freight rates and against more energy efficient tonnage.
As regards the orderbook, it’s also moving in the right direction in spite of the recent flurry of new orders for more fuel-efficient tonnage. During the past 10 weeks the number of newbuilding orders in the book has come down from 1,599 to 1,548. Finally, on the ordering side, strong interest in Capesizes remains evident, with 62 new orders in 2013. A total of 18 million DWT has been ordered in the year so far, with March and April seeing total new orders placed in excess of 4.5 million DWT each month.
OUTLOOK
The Summer lull is creeping up on dry bulk shipping demand following the successful South American grain season. Fortunately, solid demand is keeping spirits up in the dry bulk industry, while the severe extent of overcapacity is pushing the date for a full-blown recovery of earnings into a somewhat distant future. For now the market is getting more and more spot focused, as no owners want to commit tonnage for longer terms at offered levels. Don’t look at the paper market for any support, because you won’t find it. FFA indications (10/6) for Capesize tonnage go to the tune of USD per day: Q3-13, Q4-13, Cal 14 and Cal 15: 7,550, 12,000, 11,450 and 13,700 and for Supramax the indications go as follows in USD per day for the same dates: 7,900, 8,400, 8,600 and 8,900. USD per day in the spot market (10/6): Capesize for 5,571 and Supramax for 9,307.
Expect the unexpected from the dry bulk market seems to be the message passed on in recent years – and today is no different, as Handysize tonnage is earning USD 10,900 per day on an Atlantic round voyage whereas Capesizes are struggling to get a 1 year T/C fixed at USD 10,500 per day if at all. With respect to freight rates for Panamax and Supramax tonnage, they have lost ground since the beginning of March.
To sum up, our forecast for the coming 6 weeks: BIMCO holds the view that Capesize TC average rates are expected to remain subdued around USD 4,500-7,500 per day. Panamax is expected to stay in the USD 4,500-8,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 7,000-10,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-8,500 per day.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping News
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Saturday, 25 March 23
COAL INDIA HAS STRONG CASE TO INCREASE PRICES, TALKS ON: CMD AGRAWAL - BUSINESS STANDARD
Coal India (CIL) Chairman and Managing Director Pramod Agrawal said on Monday there is a “strong case” for increasing coal prices, and ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
ASIAN CRUDE PALM OIL WATCH 1Q23 - FITCH RATINGS
Malaysian benchmark crude palm oil (CPO) spot prices have averaged around USD915 per tonne (t) so far in 1Q23, sharply lower than the average of ar ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
INDONESIA’S COAL EXPORT INCREASED BY 21.0% YOY TO 388.4 MLN T IN 2022 - BANCHERO COSTA
After a slow start in the first quarter, global coal trade has really picked up pace last year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels. In the f ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
GLOBAL LNG-ASIA SPOT PRICES SLIP AS WEAK NORTHERN DEMAND REMAINS - REUTERS
Asian spot prices of liquefied natural gas (LNG) declined this week, falling to a 21-month low, as weak demand in the northeast Asia region continu ...
Wednesday, 22 March 23
OIL PRICE FALL SPECULATIVE, TO HIT $140 BY YEAR-END -ANDURAND: REUTERS
The recent fall in oil prices due to banking jitters is speculative and oil will hit $140 a barrel by the end of the year, hedge fund manager Pierr ...
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- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PTC India Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
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