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Thursday, 13 June 13
BIMCO EXPECTS SUBDUED CAPESIZE EARNINGS FOR THE COMING WEEKS - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Bulk is not only about China even though it is a key driver. In this section, we have taken a closer look at the European seaborne coal markets, which is going through some interesting times right now. European coal demand has been in a slump ever since early 2009, where seaborne demand fell by 14 million tons from the first to the second quarter. Import volumes during the last three quarters of 2011 indicated that seaborne coal demand was recovering, but the development stalled somewhat in 2012. Looking on a country basis, the nation with the biggest decline was Italy, with annual seaborne imports being roughly 8 million tons lower today than before the financial crisis. France has also decreased its imports by around 4-5 million tons annually. The United Kingdom and Spain have weakened as well, but these countries seem to be on a rebound, with volumes being slightly below pre-financial crisis levels. The Netherlands and Germany have had relatively stable import numbers since 2005.
The bulk of seaborne coal going to Europe comes from North America, Colombia and Russia. The United States and Colombia have doubled their exports to Europe, while Russia has maintained its share of the European demand. Russian coal is shipped from both Russian and Latvian ports; Colombian coal is primarily shipped from the Caribbean, while US coal is primarily shipped from the Atlantic Coast and the Mexican Gulf. The drop in European seaborne demand for coal did not affect these countries, but rather South Africa. From being the single largest coal exporter to Europe with 52.0 million tons in 2005, the country has become a footnote, with 13.6 million tons in 2011. This represents bad business for the shipping industry, since the sailing distance from Richards Bay to Rotterdam is 98% longer than from Hampton Roads and 61% longer than from Puerto Bolivar.
Although European coal imports didn’t tell a particular positive story for shipping, US exports most certainly did. We expect to publish a story on this within the next couple of weeks.
On a more general note regarding the bulk market, China is expected to increase its imports of wheat, as sub-standard storage facilities have damaged a part of the huge Chinese stockpiles. Traders said that China is seeking to increase imports when global prices are in a slump. Current forward prices indicate that this may happen during the third quarter of 2013. According to Chinese customs statistics, the main exporters of wheat to China are Australia, Canada and United States, the latter two providing significant tonne miles.
Meanwhile, Argentina is exporting record high volumes of grains; CRSL reported that Argentina exported 4.86 million tons of grains in March – the highest number ever for a single month. This gave a spike in Panamax rates with the BPI staying just below the psychological barrier of USD 10,000 per day in March and April, but earnings are now slightly lower at around USD 7,000 per day. In our last report, we predicted that Panamax rates would stay in the USD 5,000-10,000 per day territory; going forward seasonal events like Argentinian exports are likely to provide for the upside ticks.
SUPPLY
New dry bulk deliveries walk the anticipated line and have now reached 29 million DWT. Meanwhile, 11 million DWT have been sold for recycling, which brings the year-to-date fleet growth up to 2.8%. The inflow is seen primarily in the Panamax segment, where 136 (in 2012: 162) new vessels are keeping Panamax fleet growth high. Simultaneously, the Capesize segment only saw 48 (in 2012: 115) new vessels coming on stream, eventually easing some of the pain from the current overcapacity.
Average age and size of the demolished tonnage is 28 years and 60,000 DWT. In line with the development seen in the last couple of years, the average age is still trending down – whereas the average size is essentially unchanged. BIMCO forecasts a slightly lower level of tonnage being demolished in 2013 as compared to last year; however, it is still going to be the second-largest year on record. The solid level of demolition prices will inspire owners to consider recycling, rather than trading their old tonnage in a very volatile market without certainty of sustainable freight rates and against more energy efficient tonnage.
As regards the orderbook, it’s also moving in the right direction in spite of the recent flurry of new orders for more fuel-efficient tonnage. During the past 10 weeks the number of newbuilding orders in the book has come down from 1,599 to 1,548. Finally, on the ordering side, strong interest in Capesizes remains evident, with 62 new orders in 2013. A total of 18 million DWT has been ordered in the year so far, with March and April seeing total new orders placed in excess of 4.5 million DWT each month.
OUTLOOK
The Summer lull is creeping up on dry bulk shipping demand following the successful South American grain season. Fortunately, solid demand is keeping spirits up in the dry bulk industry, while the severe extent of overcapacity is pushing the date for a full-blown recovery of earnings into a somewhat distant future. For now the market is getting more and more spot focused, as no owners want to commit tonnage for longer terms at offered levels. Don’t look at the paper market for any support, because you won’t find it. FFA indications (10/6) for Capesize tonnage go to the tune of USD per day: Q3-13, Q4-13, Cal 14 and Cal 15: 7,550, 12,000, 11,450 and 13,700 and for Supramax the indications go as follows in USD per day for the same dates: 7,900, 8,400, 8,600 and 8,900. USD per day in the spot market (10/6): Capesize for 5,571 and Supramax for 9,307.
Expect the unexpected from the dry bulk market seems to be the message passed on in recent years – and today is no different, as Handysize tonnage is earning USD 10,900 per day on an Atlantic round voyage whereas Capesizes are struggling to get a 1 year T/C fixed at USD 10,500 per day if at all. With respect to freight rates for Panamax and Supramax tonnage, they have lost ground since the beginning of March.
To sum up, our forecast for the coming 6 weeks: BIMCO holds the view that Capesize TC average rates are expected to remain subdued around USD 4,500-7,500 per day. Panamax is expected to stay in the USD 4,500-8,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 7,000-10,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-8,500 per day.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping News
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Saturday, 17 July 21
COAL PRICES TRADE AT DECADE HIGH OF $140 PER TONNE, HERE ARE SOME FACTORS AT PLAY: CNBC-TV18
Coal prices are trading at $140 per tonne. In the last one week, coal has seen more than 8 percent gains; the last one month has seen 24 percent ju ...
Thursday, 15 July 21
U.S. FOSSIL FUEL CONSUMPTION FELL BY 9% IN 2020, THE LOWEST LEVEL IN NEARLY 30 YEARS - EIA
U.S. fossil fuel consumption fell by 9% in 2020, the lowest level in nearly 30 years
In 2020, total consumption of fossil fuels in t ...
Thursday, 15 July 21
IN 2020, U.S. COAL PRODUCTION FELL TO ITS LOWEST LEVEL SINCE 1965 - EIA
U.S. coal production totaled 535 million short tons (MMst) in 2020, a 24% decrease from the 706 MMst mined in 2019 and the lowest level of coal pro ...
Wednesday, 14 July 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
In its latest Global Economic Prospects report, the world bank recorded the strongest post-recession global growth in 80 years, but emerging and de ...
Tuesday, 13 July 21
JAPAN STILL SEEKING TO EXPLOIT COAL POWER LOOPHOLES - IEEFA
JBIC wants to continue burdening developing nations with its expensive coal-fired power technology
Japan is continuing to push its expensive c ...
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- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Planning Commission, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Australian Coal Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
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