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Thursday, 13 June 13
BIMCO EXPECTS SUBDUED CAPESIZE EARNINGS FOR THE COMING WEEKS - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Bulk is not only about China even though it is a key driver. In this section, we have taken a closer look at the European seaborne coal markets, which is going through some interesting times right now. European coal demand has been in a slump ever since early 2009, where seaborne demand fell by 14 million tons from the first to the second quarter. Import volumes during the last three quarters of 2011 indicated that seaborne coal demand was recovering, but the development stalled somewhat in 2012. Looking on a country basis, the nation with the biggest decline was Italy, with annual seaborne imports being roughly 8 million tons lower today than before the financial crisis. France has also decreased its imports by around 4-5 million tons annually. The United Kingdom and Spain have weakened as well, but these countries seem to be on a rebound, with volumes being slightly below pre-financial crisis levels. The Netherlands and Germany have had relatively stable import numbers since 2005.
The bulk of seaborne coal going to Europe comes from North America, Colombia and Russia. The United States and Colombia have doubled their exports to Europe, while Russia has maintained its share of the European demand. Russian coal is shipped from both Russian and Latvian ports; Colombian coal is primarily shipped from the Caribbean, while US coal is primarily shipped from the Atlantic Coast and the Mexican Gulf. The drop in European seaborne demand for coal did not affect these countries, but rather South Africa. From being the single largest coal exporter to Europe with 52.0 million tons in 2005, the country has become a footnote, with 13.6 million tons in 2011. This represents bad business for the shipping industry, since the sailing distance from Richards Bay to Rotterdam is 98% longer than from Hampton Roads and 61% longer than from Puerto Bolivar.
Although European coal imports didn’t tell a particular positive story for shipping, US exports most certainly did. We expect to publish a story on this within the next couple of weeks.
On a more general note regarding the bulk market, China is expected to increase its imports of wheat, as sub-standard storage facilities have damaged a part of the huge Chinese stockpiles. Traders said that China is seeking to increase imports when global prices are in a slump. Current forward prices indicate that this may happen during the third quarter of 2013. According to Chinese customs statistics, the main exporters of wheat to China are Australia, Canada and United States, the latter two providing significant tonne miles.
Meanwhile, Argentina is exporting record high volumes of grains; CRSL reported that Argentina exported 4.86 million tons of grains in March – the highest number ever for a single month. This gave a spike in Panamax rates with the BPI staying just below the psychological barrier of USD 10,000 per day in March and April, but earnings are now slightly lower at around USD 7,000 per day. In our last report, we predicted that Panamax rates would stay in the USD 5,000-10,000 per day territory; going forward seasonal events like Argentinian exports are likely to provide for the upside ticks.
SUPPLY
New dry bulk deliveries walk the anticipated line and have now reached 29 million DWT. Meanwhile, 11 million DWT have been sold for recycling, which brings the year-to-date fleet growth up to 2.8%. The inflow is seen primarily in the Panamax segment, where 136 (in 2012: 162) new vessels are keeping Panamax fleet growth high. Simultaneously, the Capesize segment only saw 48 (in 2012: 115) new vessels coming on stream, eventually easing some of the pain from the current overcapacity.
Average age and size of the demolished tonnage is 28 years and 60,000 DWT. In line with the development seen in the last couple of years, the average age is still trending down – whereas the average size is essentially unchanged. BIMCO forecasts a slightly lower level of tonnage being demolished in 2013 as compared to last year; however, it is still going to be the second-largest year on record. The solid level of demolition prices will inspire owners to consider recycling, rather than trading their old tonnage in a very volatile market without certainty of sustainable freight rates and against more energy efficient tonnage.
As regards the orderbook, it’s also moving in the right direction in spite of the recent flurry of new orders for more fuel-efficient tonnage. During the past 10 weeks the number of newbuilding orders in the book has come down from 1,599 to 1,548. Finally, on the ordering side, strong interest in Capesizes remains evident, with 62 new orders in 2013. A total of 18 million DWT has been ordered in the year so far, with March and April seeing total new orders placed in excess of 4.5 million DWT each month.
OUTLOOK
The Summer lull is creeping up on dry bulk shipping demand following the successful South American grain season. Fortunately, solid demand is keeping spirits up in the dry bulk industry, while the severe extent of overcapacity is pushing the date for a full-blown recovery of earnings into a somewhat distant future. For now the market is getting more and more spot focused, as no owners want to commit tonnage for longer terms at offered levels. Don’t look at the paper market for any support, because you won’t find it. FFA indications (10/6) for Capesize tonnage go to the tune of USD per day: Q3-13, Q4-13, Cal 14 and Cal 15: 7,550, 12,000, 11,450 and 13,700 and for Supramax the indications go as follows in USD per day for the same dates: 7,900, 8,400, 8,600 and 8,900. USD per day in the spot market (10/6): Capesize for 5,571 and Supramax for 9,307.
Expect the unexpected from the dry bulk market seems to be the message passed on in recent years – and today is no different, as Handysize tonnage is earning USD 10,900 per day on an Atlantic round voyage whereas Capesizes are struggling to get a 1 year T/C fixed at USD 10,500 per day if at all. With respect to freight rates for Panamax and Supramax tonnage, they have lost ground since the beginning of March.
To sum up, our forecast for the coming 6 weeks: BIMCO holds the view that Capesize TC average rates are expected to remain subdued around USD 4,500-7,500 per day. Panamax is expected to stay in the USD 4,500-8,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 7,000-10,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-8,500 per day.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping News
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Monday, 09 August 21
AIIB MAY OFFICIALLY END COAL FINANCING IN 2022 - CHINA DAILY
The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank may officially rule out coal projects if it updates its energy strategy next year, after shunning funding ...
Monday, 09 August 21
CHINA COAL INVENTORY THINS AMID PEAK POWER DEMAND- STATE MEDIA : REUTERS
China’s coal inventories have dropped to near historic lows since August due to peak summer electricity demand and transportation bottlenecks ...
Wednesday, 04 August 21
THE INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE SURGED TO A FRESH RECORD HIGH OF USD 130.99 A TON IN AUGUST 2021
COALspot.com: The Indonesian Coal Price Reference ( HBA) surged to a fresh record high of USD 130.99 a ton in August 2021.
The ...
Wednesday, 04 August 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Unlike the Dry Bulk and Container sectors where freight rates have surged into 2021, the tankers market continues to experience lackluster earnings ...
Sunday, 01 August 21
SEABORNE HARD COAL TRADE IN 2020 DECREASED BY 149 MILLION MT, OR 12.1%, TO 1,083 MILLION MT - GERMAN COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
- Reduced coal-fired power plant fleet secures Germany’s power supply in severe winter of 2020/2021; little wind availability and hence stron ...
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The University of Queensland
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- VISA Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Australian Coal Association
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
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