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Thursday, 13 June 13
BIMCO EXPECTS SUBDUED CAPESIZE EARNINGS FOR THE COMING WEEKS - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Bulk is not only about China even though it is a key driver. In this section, we have taken a closer look at the European seaborne coal markets, which is going through some interesting times right now. European coal demand has been in a slump ever since early 2009, where seaborne demand fell by 14 million tons from the first to the second quarter. Import volumes during the last three quarters of 2011 indicated that seaborne coal demand was recovering, but the development stalled somewhat in 2012. Looking on a country basis, the nation with the biggest decline was Italy, with annual seaborne imports being roughly 8 million tons lower today than before the financial crisis. France has also decreased its imports by around 4-5 million tons annually. The United Kingdom and Spain have weakened as well, but these countries seem to be on a rebound, with volumes being slightly below pre-financial crisis levels. The Netherlands and Germany have had relatively stable import numbers since 2005.
The bulk of seaborne coal going to Europe comes from North America, Colombia and Russia. The United States and Colombia have doubled their exports to Europe, while Russia has maintained its share of the European demand. Russian coal is shipped from both Russian and Latvian ports; Colombian coal is primarily shipped from the Caribbean, while US coal is primarily shipped from the Atlantic Coast and the Mexican Gulf. The drop in European seaborne demand for coal did not affect these countries, but rather South Africa. From being the single largest coal exporter to Europe with 52.0 million tons in 2005, the country has become a footnote, with 13.6 million tons in 2011. This represents bad business for the shipping industry, since the sailing distance from Richards Bay to Rotterdam is 98% longer than from Hampton Roads and 61% longer than from Puerto Bolivar.
Although European coal imports didn’t tell a particular positive story for shipping, US exports most certainly did. We expect to publish a story on this within the next couple of weeks.
On a more general note regarding the bulk market, China is expected to increase its imports of wheat, as sub-standard storage facilities have damaged a part of the huge Chinese stockpiles. Traders said that China is seeking to increase imports when global prices are in a slump. Current forward prices indicate that this may happen during the third quarter of 2013. According to Chinese customs statistics, the main exporters of wheat to China are Australia, Canada and United States, the latter two providing significant tonne miles.
Meanwhile, Argentina is exporting record high volumes of grains; CRSL reported that Argentina exported 4.86 million tons of grains in March – the highest number ever for a single month. This gave a spike in Panamax rates with the BPI staying just below the psychological barrier of USD 10,000 per day in March and April, but earnings are now slightly lower at around USD 7,000 per day. In our last report, we predicted that Panamax rates would stay in the USD 5,000-10,000 per day territory; going forward seasonal events like Argentinian exports are likely to provide for the upside ticks.
SUPPLY
New dry bulk deliveries walk the anticipated line and have now reached 29 million DWT. Meanwhile, 11 million DWT have been sold for recycling, which brings the year-to-date fleet growth up to 2.8%. The inflow is seen primarily in the Panamax segment, where 136 (in 2012: 162) new vessels are keeping Panamax fleet growth high. Simultaneously, the Capesize segment only saw 48 (in 2012: 115) new vessels coming on stream, eventually easing some of the pain from the current overcapacity.
Average age and size of the demolished tonnage is 28 years and 60,000 DWT. In line with the development seen in the last couple of years, the average age is still trending down – whereas the average size is essentially unchanged. BIMCO forecasts a slightly lower level of tonnage being demolished in 2013 as compared to last year; however, it is still going to be the second-largest year on record. The solid level of demolition prices will inspire owners to consider recycling, rather than trading their old tonnage in a very volatile market without certainty of sustainable freight rates and against more energy efficient tonnage.
As regards the orderbook, it’s also moving in the right direction in spite of the recent flurry of new orders for more fuel-efficient tonnage. During the past 10 weeks the number of newbuilding orders in the book has come down from 1,599 to 1,548. Finally, on the ordering side, strong interest in Capesizes remains evident, with 62 new orders in 2013. A total of 18 million DWT has been ordered in the year so far, with March and April seeing total new orders placed in excess of 4.5 million DWT each month.
OUTLOOK
The Summer lull is creeping up on dry bulk shipping demand following the successful South American grain season. Fortunately, solid demand is keeping spirits up in the dry bulk industry, while the severe extent of overcapacity is pushing the date for a full-blown recovery of earnings into a somewhat distant future. For now the market is getting more and more spot focused, as no owners want to commit tonnage for longer terms at offered levels. Don’t look at the paper market for any support, because you won’t find it. FFA indications (10/6) for Capesize tonnage go to the tune of USD per day: Q3-13, Q4-13, Cal 14 and Cal 15: 7,550, 12,000, 11,450 and 13,700 and for Supramax the indications go as follows in USD per day for the same dates: 7,900, 8,400, 8,600 and 8,900. USD per day in the spot market (10/6): Capesize for 5,571 and Supramax for 9,307.
Expect the unexpected from the dry bulk market seems to be the message passed on in recent years – and today is no different, as Handysize tonnage is earning USD 10,900 per day on an Atlantic round voyage whereas Capesizes are struggling to get a 1 year T/C fixed at USD 10,500 per day if at all. With respect to freight rates for Panamax and Supramax tonnage, they have lost ground since the beginning of March.
To sum up, our forecast for the coming 6 weeks: BIMCO holds the view that Capesize TC average rates are expected to remain subdued around USD 4,500-7,500 per day. Panamax is expected to stay in the USD 4,500-8,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 7,000-10,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-8,500 per day.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping News
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Wednesday, 28 July 21
IN THE PHILIPPINES, COAL’S DEMISE MAKES WAY FOR A RENEWABLE ENERGY BOOM - IEEFA
Imported gas lock-in could undermine the economic benefits of a clean energy transition
The Philippines’ energy sector is on t ...
Wednesday, 28 July 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Assessing the ship repair sector during this first half of the year, we continue to come across surprises and new restrictions which are trembling ...
Saturday, 24 July 21
UNDERSTANDING INDIA'S LATEST PEAK POWER DEMAND RECORD - IEEFA
Ramping up solar will be crucial as peak power demand hits during the day
At around noon on 7 July 2021, India’s instantaneous ...
Wednesday, 21 July 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Dry Buk Sales and Purchase activity has heated up during 2021, reaching record high levels during the first half of the year. The increased interes ...
Monday, 19 July 21
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT UP 6.4 PCT IN H1 - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output climbed 6.4 percent year on year to 1.95 billion tonnes in the first six months of the year, official data showed.
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- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
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