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Thursday, 13 June 13
BIMCO EXPECTS SUBDUED CAPESIZE EARNINGS FOR THE COMING WEEKS - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Bulk is not only about China even though it is a key driver. In this section, we have taken a closer look at the European seaborne coal markets, which is going through some interesting times right now. European coal demand has been in a slump ever since early 2009, where seaborne demand fell by 14 million tons from the first to the second quarter. Import volumes during the last three quarters of 2011 indicated that seaborne coal demand was recovering, but the development stalled somewhat in 2012. Looking on a country basis, the nation with the biggest decline was Italy, with annual seaborne imports being roughly 8 million tons lower today than before the financial crisis. France has also decreased its imports by around 4-5 million tons annually. The United Kingdom and Spain have weakened as well, but these countries seem to be on a rebound, with volumes being slightly below pre-financial crisis levels. The Netherlands and Germany have had relatively stable import numbers since 2005.
The bulk of seaborne coal going to Europe comes from North America, Colombia and Russia. The United States and Colombia have doubled their exports to Europe, while Russia has maintained its share of the European demand. Russian coal is shipped from both Russian and Latvian ports; Colombian coal is primarily shipped from the Caribbean, while US coal is primarily shipped from the Atlantic Coast and the Mexican Gulf. The drop in European seaborne demand for coal did not affect these countries, but rather South Africa. From being the single largest coal exporter to Europe with 52.0 million tons in 2005, the country has become a footnote, with 13.6 million tons in 2011. This represents bad business for the shipping industry, since the sailing distance from Richards Bay to Rotterdam is 98% longer than from Hampton Roads and 61% longer than from Puerto Bolivar.
Although European coal imports didn’t tell a particular positive story for shipping, US exports most certainly did. We expect to publish a story on this within the next couple of weeks.
On a more general note regarding the bulk market, China is expected to increase its imports of wheat, as sub-standard storage facilities have damaged a part of the huge Chinese stockpiles. Traders said that China is seeking to increase imports when global prices are in a slump. Current forward prices indicate that this may happen during the third quarter of 2013. According to Chinese customs statistics, the main exporters of wheat to China are Australia, Canada and United States, the latter two providing significant tonne miles.
Meanwhile, Argentina is exporting record high volumes of grains; CRSL reported that Argentina exported 4.86 million tons of grains in March – the highest number ever for a single month. This gave a spike in Panamax rates with the BPI staying just below the psychological barrier of USD 10,000 per day in March and April, but earnings are now slightly lower at around USD 7,000 per day. In our last report, we predicted that Panamax rates would stay in the USD 5,000-10,000 per day territory; going forward seasonal events like Argentinian exports are likely to provide for the upside ticks.
SUPPLY
New dry bulk deliveries walk the anticipated line and have now reached 29 million DWT. Meanwhile, 11 million DWT have been sold for recycling, which brings the year-to-date fleet growth up to 2.8%. The inflow is seen primarily in the Panamax segment, where 136 (in 2012: 162) new vessels are keeping Panamax fleet growth high. Simultaneously, the Capesize segment only saw 48 (in 2012: 115) new vessels coming on stream, eventually easing some of the pain from the current overcapacity.
Average age and size of the demolished tonnage is 28 years and 60,000 DWT. In line with the development seen in the last couple of years, the average age is still trending down – whereas the average size is essentially unchanged. BIMCO forecasts a slightly lower level of tonnage being demolished in 2013 as compared to last year; however, it is still going to be the second-largest year on record. The solid level of demolition prices will inspire owners to consider recycling, rather than trading their old tonnage in a very volatile market without certainty of sustainable freight rates and against more energy efficient tonnage.
As regards the orderbook, it’s also moving in the right direction in spite of the recent flurry of new orders for more fuel-efficient tonnage. During the past 10 weeks the number of newbuilding orders in the book has come down from 1,599 to 1,548. Finally, on the ordering side, strong interest in Capesizes remains evident, with 62 new orders in 2013. A total of 18 million DWT has been ordered in the year so far, with March and April seeing total new orders placed in excess of 4.5 million DWT each month.
OUTLOOK
The Summer lull is creeping up on dry bulk shipping demand following the successful South American grain season. Fortunately, solid demand is keeping spirits up in the dry bulk industry, while the severe extent of overcapacity is pushing the date for a full-blown recovery of earnings into a somewhat distant future. For now the market is getting more and more spot focused, as no owners want to commit tonnage for longer terms at offered levels. Don’t look at the paper market for any support, because you won’t find it. FFA indications (10/6) for Capesize tonnage go to the tune of USD per day: Q3-13, Q4-13, Cal 14 and Cal 15: 7,550, 12,000, 11,450 and 13,700 and for Supramax the indications go as follows in USD per day for the same dates: 7,900, 8,400, 8,600 and 8,900. USD per day in the spot market (10/6): Capesize for 5,571 and Supramax for 9,307.
Expect the unexpected from the dry bulk market seems to be the message passed on in recent years – and today is no different, as Handysize tonnage is earning USD 10,900 per day on an Atlantic round voyage whereas Capesizes are struggling to get a 1 year T/C fixed at USD 10,500 per day if at all. With respect to freight rates for Panamax and Supramax tonnage, they have lost ground since the beginning of March.
To sum up, our forecast for the coming 6 weeks: BIMCO holds the view that Capesize TC average rates are expected to remain subdued around USD 4,500-7,500 per day. Panamax is expected to stay in the USD 4,500-8,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 7,000-10,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-8,500 per day.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping News
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Friday, 13 August 21
INDONESIA’S COAL EXPORTS TO JAPAN DECLINED BY -26.3% YOY TO 11.9 MLN TONNES IN THE FIRST 7 MONTHS OF 2021; STILL THE SECOND LARGEST SOURCE FOR JAPAN’S COAL IMPORTS IS INDONESIA - BANCHERO COSTA
2020 proved to be a truly terrible year for global seaborne coal trade. Total global loadings in the 12 months of 2020 were down -12.7% year-on-yea ...
Thursday, 12 August 21
ONLY 3 VLCCS SOLD FOR DEMOLITION IN 2021 AS SECONDHAND PRICES TEMPT - BIMCO
During the first seven months of 2021, only three actively trading Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) have been sold for demolition. The current mar ...
Wednesday, 11 August 21
U.S: EIA EXPECTS COAL EXPORTS TO TOTAL 90 MMST IN 2021, 30% INCREASE FROM 2020
Coal production in EIA's forecast totals 607 million short tons (MMst) in 2021, an increase of 13% over 2020.
EIA is also ...
Wednesday, 11 August 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Energy is at the core of the global climate dialogue as the climate challenge is essentially an energy challenge. Policy experts around the world a ...
Tuesday, 10 August 21
34 INDONESIAN COAL COMPANIES TEMPORARILY BANNED FOR COAL EXPORTS
The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) has imposed sanctions in the form of a coal export ban for 34 coal companies as reported by CNB ...
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- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
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