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Friday, 10 November 23
COAL USE AT U.S. POWER PLANTS CONTINUES DOWNWARD SPIRAL; FULL IMPACT ON MINES TO BE FELT IN 2024 - IEEFA
 This year, the use of coal by the U.S.’s power producers has been so anemic that the fuel has not achieved a 20% market share in any month so far, and the current outlook predicts low levels for the rest of the year. To put that into perspective, coal’s power market share had never been less than 20% in any month before 2020, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).
In July 2023, for example, coal hit its high point for the year so far, providing 19.1% of the country’s power; in August its market share was 19.0%. That performance stands in stark contrast to 2021, when coal’s market share in both July and August was more than 25%—roughly 6 percentage points higher. The low point this spring occurred in April and May, between the winter heating and summer cooling seasons, when coal’s market share slumped to just 13.8%—the first time it has ever fallen below 15%.
Despite hotter summer temperatures and increased power demand to run air conditioning in some parts of the country this summer, the use of coal has fallen. This is a result of lower prices for gas—coal’s primary fossil-fuel competitor—and a surge in utility-scale solar generation, which was up 20% in July from July 2022, and up 23% in August from a year ago.
The EIA’s current outlook suggests even more deterioration for coal power in the coming months. The energy agency not only sees coal’s November market share returning to the record-low market share in the spring, but also dropping even more in 2024, to as low as 10 to 13% in both the spring and fall.
The decision by plant owners to scale back their use of coal can be seen in at least two measures. First, power generation at coal plants has fallen every single month in 2023 compared to the same months in 2022, both at those owned by utilities and those owned by independent power producers (IPPs)—and by a lot. Through August, utility coal generation has dropped an average of 19.7%. At IPP coal plants, which are more sensitive to competitive pressures, generation has fallen even more—declining an average of 29.7%, a sign that the economics of selling coal-fired power have deteriorated significantly this year.
At the same time, coal stockpiles have surged, to almost 130 million tons in June, and remain high. That’s enough to run coal plants for 113 days, or almost four months, based on the average amount of coal used over the previous year. This measure, called “days of burn,” is more useful than simply looking at the size of the coal piles, since there are fewer coal plants than in the past, and the ones that are still operating are running less. In fact, the amount of coal used each day in the U.S. has fallen from about 2.8 million tons a day in 2008 to roughly 1.1 million tons a day this year—a 62% drop.
It can take a long time to bring such large stockpiles down to levels power producers are more comfortable with—historically around 50 to 60 days’ supply. It took 16 months to lower stockpiles from the May 2020 peak of 120 days of burn, and it took 34 months—almost three years— to lower stockpiles after a May 2016 peak of 105 days of burn. The speed of the drawdown will also be influenced by other factors like warm winter weather, the health of the U.S. economy, and gas prices.
To cut stockpiles, coal-plant owners are likely to turn to a straightforward solution: Buy less coal.
That, of course, would directly affect coal mining in the U.S., and the EIA is already warning that a significant production downturn is coming for the remainder of 2023 and throughout 2024. Overall, coal output could fall to 466 million tons in 2024, a 25 percent decline of 115 million tons from 2023 levels, the EIA says. If that figure holds, it would be the smallest annual U.S. coal production since 1962—but most of the years between 1936 and 1957 also had higher output.
Western producers, which include the nation’s largest mines in the Powder River Basin, could be hardest hit. The EIA is anticipating output in the region to slump 30% next year, or 73 million tons, to just 246 million tons. That would be the region’s lowest production in at least 40 years. Appalachian production doesn’t fare much better. There, the EIA expects production to fall almost 22%, or 29 million tons, to just 132 million tons. For comparison, when coal output in Appalachia peaked in 1990, almost four times as much of the fuel was mined.
After a sharp drop in coal demand in 2020 due to the pandemic, output from U.S. coal producers moderately rebounded and stabilized in 2021. Then, in 2022, coal prices soared after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which broadly improved the financial health of U.S. coal companies—but provided only a modest improvement in the volume of coal produced, which declined again this year.
That temporary reprieve has ended. Coal companies are now staring at a substantial new downturn driven by an accelerating decline in domestic demand.
Source: IEEFA
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Tuesday, 14 November 23
CHINA'S BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE TURNS AWAY FROM COAL - WOOD MACKENZIE
Ambitious, contentious and big spending, China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is 10 years old. In that time, China has splashed more than U ...
Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and ...
Friday, 10 November 23
INDIA: NATIONAL COAL INDEX RISES 3.83 POINTS IN SEPTEMBER AMID HIGHER DEMAND - LIVEMINT
The National Coal Index (NCI) rose 3.83 points to 143.91 in September amid growing demand for coal.
The union coal ministry on Tuesd ...
Thursday, 09 November 23
WE'RE PRODUCING TOO MUCH COAL, OIL AND GAS, REPORT SAYS - WSJ
World leaders pledged in 2015 to reduce emissions in a combined effort to limit climate change.
Now they are stepping up production ...
Thursday, 09 November 23
GREEK AND CHINESE COMPANIES OWN 34% OF THE GLOBAL FLEET’S CARGO CAPACITY - BIMCO
“The global fleet of cargo carrying ships consists of around 61,000 ships with a deadweight capacity of about 2,200 million tonnes. The ships ...
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- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Australian Coal Association
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
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