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Friday, 10 November 23
COAL USE AT U.S. POWER PLANTS CONTINUES DOWNWARD SPIRAL; FULL IMPACT ON MINES TO BE FELT IN 2024 - IEEFA
 This year, the use of coal by the U.S.’s power producers has been so anemic that the fuel has not achieved a 20% market share in any month so far, and the current outlook predicts low levels for the rest of the year. To put that into perspective, coal’s power market share had never been less than 20% in any month before 2020, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).
In July 2023, for example, coal hit its high point for the year so far, providing 19.1% of the country’s power; in August its market share was 19.0%. That performance stands in stark contrast to 2021, when coal’s market share in both July and August was more than 25%—roughly 6 percentage points higher. The low point this spring occurred in April and May, between the winter heating and summer cooling seasons, when coal’s market share slumped to just 13.8%—the first time it has ever fallen below 15%.
Despite hotter summer temperatures and increased power demand to run air conditioning in some parts of the country this summer, the use of coal has fallen. This is a result of lower prices for gas—coal’s primary fossil-fuel competitor—and a surge in utility-scale solar generation, which was up 20% in July from July 2022, and up 23% in August from a year ago.
The EIA’s current outlook suggests even more deterioration for coal power in the coming months. The energy agency not only sees coal’s November market share returning to the record-low market share in the spring, but also dropping even more in 2024, to as low as 10 to 13% in both the spring and fall.
The decision by plant owners to scale back their use of coal can be seen in at least two measures. First, power generation at coal plants has fallen every single month in 2023 compared to the same months in 2022, both at those owned by utilities and those owned by independent power producers (IPPs)—and by a lot. Through August, utility coal generation has dropped an average of 19.7%. At IPP coal plants, which are more sensitive to competitive pressures, generation has fallen even more—declining an average of 29.7%, a sign that the economics of selling coal-fired power have deteriorated significantly this year.
At the same time, coal stockpiles have surged, to almost 130 million tons in June, and remain high. That’s enough to run coal plants for 113 days, or almost four months, based on the average amount of coal used over the previous year. This measure, called “days of burn,” is more useful than simply looking at the size of the coal piles, since there are fewer coal plants than in the past, and the ones that are still operating are running less. In fact, the amount of coal used each day in the U.S. has fallen from about 2.8 million tons a day in 2008 to roughly 1.1 million tons a day this year—a 62% drop.
It can take a long time to bring such large stockpiles down to levels power producers are more comfortable with—historically around 50 to 60 days’ supply. It took 16 months to lower stockpiles from the May 2020 peak of 120 days of burn, and it took 34 months—almost three years— to lower stockpiles after a May 2016 peak of 105 days of burn. The speed of the drawdown will also be influenced by other factors like warm winter weather, the health of the U.S. economy, and gas prices.
To cut stockpiles, coal-plant owners are likely to turn to a straightforward solution: Buy less coal.
That, of course, would directly affect coal mining in the U.S., and the EIA is already warning that a significant production downturn is coming for the remainder of 2023 and throughout 2024. Overall, coal output could fall to 466 million tons in 2024, a 25 percent decline of 115 million tons from 2023 levels, the EIA says. If that figure holds, it would be the smallest annual U.S. coal production since 1962—but most of the years between 1936 and 1957 also had higher output.
Western producers, which include the nation’s largest mines in the Powder River Basin, could be hardest hit. The EIA is anticipating output in the region to slump 30% next year, or 73 million tons, to just 246 million tons. That would be the region’s lowest production in at least 40 years. Appalachian production doesn’t fare much better. There, the EIA expects production to fall almost 22%, or 29 million tons, to just 132 million tons. For comparison, when coal output in Appalachia peaked in 1990, almost four times as much of the fuel was mined.
After a sharp drop in coal demand in 2020 due to the pandemic, output from U.S. coal producers moderately rebounded and stabilized in 2021. Then, in 2022, coal prices soared after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which broadly improved the financial health of U.S. coal companies—but provided only a modest improvement in the volume of coal produced, which declined again this year.
That temporary reprieve has ended. Coal companies are now staring at a substantial new downturn driven by an accelerating decline in domestic demand.
Source: IEEFA
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Tuesday, 14 November 23
CHINA'S BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE TURNS AWAY FROM COAL - WOOD MACKENZIE
Ambitious, contentious and big spending, China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is 10 years old. In that time, China has splashed more than U ...
Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and ...
Friday, 10 November 23
INDIA: NATIONAL COAL INDEX RISES 3.83 POINTS IN SEPTEMBER AMID HIGHER DEMAND - LIVEMINT
The National Coal Index (NCI) rose 3.83 points to 143.91 in September amid growing demand for coal.
The union coal ministry on Tuesd ...
Thursday, 09 November 23
WE'RE PRODUCING TOO MUCH COAL, OIL AND GAS, REPORT SAYS - WSJ
World leaders pledged in 2015 to reduce emissions in a combined effort to limit climate change.
Now they are stepping up production ...
Thursday, 09 November 23
GREEK AND CHINESE COMPANIES OWN 34% OF THE GLOBAL FLEET’S CARGO CAPACITY - BIMCO
“The global fleet of cargo carrying ships consists of around 61,000 ships with a deadweight capacity of about 2,200 million tonnes. The ships ...
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- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- The University of Queensland
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- White Energy Company Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
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