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Friday, 10 November 23
COAL USE AT U.S. POWER PLANTS CONTINUES DOWNWARD SPIRAL; FULL IMPACT ON MINES TO BE FELT IN 2024 - IEEFA
 This year, the use of coal by the U.S.’s power producers has been so anemic that the fuel has not achieved a 20% market share in any month so far, and the current outlook predicts low levels for the rest of the year. To put that into perspective, coal’s power market share had never been less than 20% in any month before 2020, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).
In July 2023, for example, coal hit its high point for the year so far, providing 19.1% of the country’s power; in August its market share was 19.0%. That performance stands in stark contrast to 2021, when coal’s market share in both July and August was more than 25%—roughly 6 percentage points higher. The low point this spring occurred in April and May, between the winter heating and summer cooling seasons, when coal’s market share slumped to just 13.8%—the first time it has ever fallen below 15%.
Despite hotter summer temperatures and increased power demand to run air conditioning in some parts of the country this summer, the use of coal has fallen. This is a result of lower prices for gas—coal’s primary fossil-fuel competitor—and a surge in utility-scale solar generation, which was up 20% in July from July 2022, and up 23% in August from a year ago.
The EIA’s current outlook suggests even more deterioration for coal power in the coming months. The energy agency not only sees coal’s November market share returning to the record-low market share in the spring, but also dropping even more in 2024, to as low as 10 to 13% in both the spring and fall.
The decision by plant owners to scale back their use of coal can be seen in at least two measures. First, power generation at coal plants has fallen every single month in 2023 compared to the same months in 2022, both at those owned by utilities and those owned by independent power producers (IPPs)—and by a lot. Through August, utility coal generation has dropped an average of 19.7%. At IPP coal plants, which are more sensitive to competitive pressures, generation has fallen even more—declining an average of 29.7%, a sign that the economics of selling coal-fired power have deteriorated significantly this year.
At the same time, coal stockpiles have surged, to almost 130 million tons in June, and remain high. That’s enough to run coal plants for 113 days, or almost four months, based on the average amount of coal used over the previous year. This measure, called “days of burn,” is more useful than simply looking at the size of the coal piles, since there are fewer coal plants than in the past, and the ones that are still operating are running less. In fact, the amount of coal used each day in the U.S. has fallen from about 2.8 million tons a day in 2008 to roughly 1.1 million tons a day this year—a 62% drop.
It can take a long time to bring such large stockpiles down to levels power producers are more comfortable with—historically around 50 to 60 days’ supply. It took 16 months to lower stockpiles from the May 2020 peak of 120 days of burn, and it took 34 months—almost three years— to lower stockpiles after a May 2016 peak of 105 days of burn. The speed of the drawdown will also be influenced by other factors like warm winter weather, the health of the U.S. economy, and gas prices.
To cut stockpiles, coal-plant owners are likely to turn to a straightforward solution: Buy less coal.
That, of course, would directly affect coal mining in the U.S., and the EIA is already warning that a significant production downturn is coming for the remainder of 2023 and throughout 2024. Overall, coal output could fall to 466 million tons in 2024, a 25 percent decline of 115 million tons from 2023 levels, the EIA says. If that figure holds, it would be the smallest annual U.S. coal production since 1962—but most of the years between 1936 and 1957 also had higher output.
Western producers, which include the nation’s largest mines in the Powder River Basin, could be hardest hit. The EIA is anticipating output in the region to slump 30% next year, or 73 million tons, to just 246 million tons. That would be the region’s lowest production in at least 40 years. Appalachian production doesn’t fare much better. There, the EIA expects production to fall almost 22%, or 29 million tons, to just 132 million tons. For comparison, when coal output in Appalachia peaked in 1990, almost four times as much of the fuel was mined.
After a sharp drop in coal demand in 2020 due to the pandemic, output from U.S. coal producers moderately rebounded and stabilized in 2021. Then, in 2022, coal prices soared after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which broadly improved the financial health of U.S. coal companies—but provided only a modest improvement in the volume of coal produced, which declined again this year.
That temporary reprieve has ended. Coal companies are now staring at a substantial new downturn driven by an accelerating decline in domestic demand.
Source: IEEFA
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Tuesday, 14 November 23
CHINA'S BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE TURNS AWAY FROM COAL - WOOD MACKENZIE
Ambitious, contentious and big spending, China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is 10 years old. In that time, China has splashed more than U ...
Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and ...
Friday, 10 November 23
INDIA: NATIONAL COAL INDEX RISES 3.83 POINTS IN SEPTEMBER AMID HIGHER DEMAND - LIVEMINT
The National Coal Index (NCI) rose 3.83 points to 143.91 in September amid growing demand for coal.
The union coal ministry on Tuesd ...
Thursday, 09 November 23
WE'RE PRODUCING TOO MUCH COAL, OIL AND GAS, REPORT SAYS - WSJ
World leaders pledged in 2015 to reduce emissions in a combined effort to limit climate change.
Now they are stepping up production ...
Thursday, 09 November 23
GREEK AND CHINESE COMPANIES OWN 34% OF THE GLOBAL FLEET’S CARGO CAPACITY - BIMCO
“The global fleet of cargo carrying ships consists of around 61,000 ships with a deadweight capacity of about 2,200 million tonnes. The ships ...
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- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Planning Commission, India
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