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Thursday, 12 April 12
FIRST QUARTER OF 2012 SAW AN ADDITIONAL 24.2 MILLION DWT OF DRY BULK CARRIERS ENTERING THE FLEET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 The inflow of newbuilt dry bulk vessels was larger than expected in the first quarter of 2012. As much as 24.2 million DWT were added to the fleet. This represents a close-to-record level that is only challenged by the deliveries during Q1-2011 where 24.4 million were delivered says BIMCO in an analysis of the dry bulk market. “This development has prompted an upward adjustment to our supply growth forecast for 2012 that now reads 11.4% y-o-y. So far, the active fleet has grown by 2.9% in 2012 as 288 vessels have been delivered, offset by 6.9 million DWT being demolished. The growth in the Handysize segment included 63 vessels of 2.2 million DWT – making the sub-segment grow by 3.2% during the first quarter of 2012. Meanwhile, the Capesize fleet absorbed another 10.5 million DWT, causing the fleet to grow by 4.3% since 1 January.
On the contracting side, things have calmed down significantly. Since the beginning of 2011, newbuilding orders have been fewer and fewer. For seven months in a row, the monthly level of new orders has not exceeded 1.8 million DWT. In comparison, the monthly average of ordered tonnage during 2010 stood at 8.1 million DWT. The remaining order book stays biased towards the larger ships sizes, with the order book to active fleet ratios being the highest for Panamax (60,000-100,000 DWT) at 40.8% with the Capesize segment being runners-up at 32.2%. The corresponding ratios for Handysize and Handymax are 25.4% and 26.8%” said BIMCO in its research note.
Regarding freight rates, it noted that “Capesize Time Charter Average will remain under pressure but improve from current very low levels, although it will not exceed USD 12,000 per day. For the smaller segments, we forecast that the Panamax and Supramax freight rates are likely to get closer to each other and improve, but remain in the USD 8,000-13,000 per day interval. Handysize rates should improve and head up, staying in the interval of USD 8,000-11,000 per day interval” it said.
Demand-wise, BIMCO stated that “there is no doubt that it takes time from when commodities are bought and transportation fixed and executed to the cargo being landed at the buyer’s desired port of discharge. There’s also no doubt that buying activity for staple cargoes such as coal and iron ore was hectic during the final months of 2011. If import figures continue to stay elevated and market conditions for bulkers stay weak, we can only conclude that the oversupply glut is apparently more severe and even heavier than we expected. Weather-related disruptions could not steal the picture from the overall devastating development in dry bulk freight rates that began in the first half of December 2011 and went all the way to early February before the bleeding was stopped. Since then, we have not seen any significant rebound, but rates have firmed slowly. This was in line with our forecast made in the previous report” says the report.
BIMCO further attempted to explain why rates came down that sharply in the first couple of months. “By looking at the import figures for main commodities such as iron ore and coal into China, you will find little indication that demand has died down, but March figures may present a more complete picture. Some commodities have certainly seen a drop in demand.
In the past three months (December-February) China imported 197 million tons of iron ore – up by 12% y-o-y – and 54.8 million tons of coal, up by 36%. This special market condition was a Capesize event only. As the dawn broke on 2012, the overcapacity menace returned with a vengeance, bringing not only Capesize rates to the floor but also Panamax, Supramax and Handysize rates at the same time.
When following the recent development in freight rates it is now crystal clear that the January touch-down was a sticky one. Currently, Capesize rates are still trapped in the shadows of USD 5,000 per day. The Capesize vessels that used to rule the development of freight rates have lost their position. For long periods during 2011 – and again in 2012 – rates were significantly below any other ship size. The fundamental imbalance is taking its toll. On the contrary, Supramax rates have now moved up to USD 10,000 per day, a level sufficient to cover daily running costs. This is sadly not the case for the Capesize segment generally right now. Looking back a little bit on recent history, the overall picture is similar in pattern for the various dry bulk segments, but different in levels. The limited total fleet growth in 2009 was partly due to extensive recycling of tonnage (10.1 million DWT), partly due to the rather limited introduction of new tonnage, a picture that changed completely in 2010 with the first deliveries of an exorbitant ordering spree. Despite a rather healthy demand picture during recent years, it remains a sizeable challenge to the freight markets to absorb so much tonnage. This has once again been carved in stone during the first quarter of 2012 and by seeing the very high segment growth rates for Capesize and Handymax in particular, the latter has been able to weather the storm in much calmer waters due to its more flexible nature in ports, cargoes and grab-fittings” concluded BIMCO.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Monday, 08 January 24
KOSPO TO BUY 80000 MT OF INDONESIAN LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL FOR FEB 2024
Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), is inviting bids for the supply of Indonesian Low Calorific Value Coal from qualified suppliers for Korean ...
Monday, 08 January 24
SEABORNE TRADE REACHES 12.4BN TONNES - CLARKSONS
China will establish a back-up coal production system by 2027 to stabilise prices and secure coal supply, the state planner said on Wednesday, even ...
Monday, 08 January 24
CAPESIZES START THE NEW YEAR ON POSITIVE NOTE - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Capesize
This week the capsize market has been marked by a mix of activities and challenges. Despite a slow start following the Christmas and N ...
Friday, 05 January 24
MORGAN STANLEY SEES LOWER OIL PRICES IN 2024 ON OVERSUPPLY CONCERNS - REUTERS
Morgan Stanley sees Brent crude prices anchored near $80 per barrel in the first half in 2024 before declining towards the end of the year as it ex ...
Friday, 05 January 24
INDIA'S COAL OUTPUT RISES NEARLY 11 PC IN DEC TO 92.87 MT - PTI
India’s coal production increased by 10.75 per cent to 92.87 million tonne in December 2023 as compared to the year-ago period, an official s ...
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- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Planning Commission, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The University of Queensland
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
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