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Thursday, 12 April 12
FIRST QUARTER OF 2012 SAW AN ADDITIONAL 24.2 MILLION DWT OF DRY BULK CARRIERS ENTERING THE FLEET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 The inflow of newbuilt dry bulk vessels was larger than expected in the first quarter of 2012. As much as 24.2 million DWT were added to the fleet. This represents a close-to-record level that is only challenged by the deliveries during Q1-2011 where 24.4 million were delivered says BIMCO in an analysis of the dry bulk market. “This development has prompted an upward adjustment to our supply growth forecast for 2012 that now reads 11.4% y-o-y. So far, the active fleet has grown by 2.9% in 2012 as 288 vessels have been delivered, offset by 6.9 million DWT being demolished. The growth in the Handysize segment included 63 vessels of 2.2 million DWT – making the sub-segment grow by 3.2% during the first quarter of 2012. Meanwhile, the Capesize fleet absorbed another 10.5 million DWT, causing the fleet to grow by 4.3% since 1 January.
On the contracting side, things have calmed down significantly. Since the beginning of 2011, newbuilding orders have been fewer and fewer. For seven months in a row, the monthly level of new orders has not exceeded 1.8 million DWT. In comparison, the monthly average of ordered tonnage during 2010 stood at 8.1 million DWT. The remaining order book stays biased towards the larger ships sizes, with the order book to active fleet ratios being the highest for Panamax (60,000-100,000 DWT) at 40.8% with the Capesize segment being runners-up at 32.2%. The corresponding ratios for Handysize and Handymax are 25.4% and 26.8%” said BIMCO in its research note.
Regarding freight rates, it noted that “Capesize Time Charter Average will remain under pressure but improve from current very low levels, although it will not exceed USD 12,000 per day. For the smaller segments, we forecast that the Panamax and Supramax freight rates are likely to get closer to each other and improve, but remain in the USD 8,000-13,000 per day interval. Handysize rates should improve and head up, staying in the interval of USD 8,000-11,000 per day interval” it said.
Demand-wise, BIMCO stated that “there is no doubt that it takes time from when commodities are bought and transportation fixed and executed to the cargo being landed at the buyer’s desired port of discharge. There’s also no doubt that buying activity for staple cargoes such as coal and iron ore was hectic during the final months of 2011. If import figures continue to stay elevated and market conditions for bulkers stay weak, we can only conclude that the oversupply glut is apparently more severe and even heavier than we expected. Weather-related disruptions could not steal the picture from the overall devastating development in dry bulk freight rates that began in the first half of December 2011 and went all the way to early February before the bleeding was stopped. Since then, we have not seen any significant rebound, but rates have firmed slowly. This was in line with our forecast made in the previous report” says the report.
BIMCO further attempted to explain why rates came down that sharply in the first couple of months. “By looking at the import figures for main commodities such as iron ore and coal into China, you will find little indication that demand has died down, but March figures may present a more complete picture. Some commodities have certainly seen a drop in demand.
In the past three months (December-February) China imported 197 million tons of iron ore – up by 12% y-o-y – and 54.8 million tons of coal, up by 36%. This special market condition was a Capesize event only. As the dawn broke on 2012, the overcapacity menace returned with a vengeance, bringing not only Capesize rates to the floor but also Panamax, Supramax and Handysize rates at the same time.
When following the recent development in freight rates it is now crystal clear that the January touch-down was a sticky one. Currently, Capesize rates are still trapped in the shadows of USD 5,000 per day. The Capesize vessels that used to rule the development of freight rates have lost their position. For long periods during 2011 – and again in 2012 – rates were significantly below any other ship size. The fundamental imbalance is taking its toll. On the contrary, Supramax rates have now moved up to USD 10,000 per day, a level sufficient to cover daily running costs. This is sadly not the case for the Capesize segment generally right now. Looking back a little bit on recent history, the overall picture is similar in pattern for the various dry bulk segments, but different in levels. The limited total fleet growth in 2009 was partly due to extensive recycling of tonnage (10.1 million DWT), partly due to the rather limited introduction of new tonnage, a picture that changed completely in 2010 with the first deliveries of an exorbitant ordering spree. Despite a rather healthy demand picture during recent years, it remains a sizeable challenge to the freight markets to absorb so much tonnage. This has once again been carved in stone during the first quarter of 2012 and by seeing the very high segment growth rates for Capesize and Handymax in particular, the latter has been able to weather the storm in much calmer waters due to its more flexible nature in ports, cargoes and grab-fittings” concluded BIMCO.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Thursday, 25 January 24
THE RED SEA ESCALATION IMPLICATIONS ON GLOBAL SEABORNE TRADE - MARIA BERTZELETOU
In recent days, discussions have intensified about the potential impact on the seaborne trade and ton-miles due to the evolving dynamics of market ...
Thursday, 25 January 24
RED SEA SHIPPING DISRUPTIONS KEEP GEOPOLITICAL PREMIUM FOR COMMODITIES - FITCH RATINGS
Shipping disruptions and re-routing away from the Red Sea will maintain the geopolitical premium in the main commodity markets, including for oil a ...
Friday, 19 January 24
INDONESIA TARGETS 710 MLN METRIC TONS COAL OUTPUT IN 2024 AFTER RECORD 2023 - REUTERS
Indonesia, a major thermal coal exporter, aims to produce 710 million metric tons of coal in 2024, its mining minister said on Monday, after postin ...
Friday, 19 January 24
DRUMMOND COLOMBIA COAL OUTPUT ROSE 7.1% IN 2023 - REUTERS
Coal production from miner Drummond’s Colombia operations rose 7.1% in 2023 to 29.5 million metric tons, while exports declined by 2.6% to 27 ...
Friday, 19 January 24
CHINA'S 2023 COAL OUTPUT HITS RECORD HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal output reached a record high in 2023, data from the statistics bureau showed on Wednesday, amid an ongoing focus on energy secur ...
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- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PTC India Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
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