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Thursday, 12 April 12
FIRST QUARTER OF 2012 SAW AN ADDITIONAL 24.2 MILLION DWT OF DRY BULK CARRIERS ENTERING THE FLEET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 The inflow of newbuilt dry bulk vessels was larger than expected in the first quarter of 2012. As much as 24.2 million DWT were added to the fleet. This represents a close-to-record level that is only challenged by the deliveries during Q1-2011 where 24.4 million were delivered says BIMCO in an analysis of the dry bulk market. “This development has prompted an upward adjustment to our supply growth forecast for 2012 that now reads 11.4% y-o-y. So far, the active fleet has grown by 2.9% in 2012 as 288 vessels have been delivered, offset by 6.9 million DWT being demolished. The growth in the Handysize segment included 63 vessels of 2.2 million DWT – making the sub-segment grow by 3.2% during the first quarter of 2012. Meanwhile, the Capesize fleet absorbed another 10.5 million DWT, causing the fleet to grow by 4.3% since 1 January.
On the contracting side, things have calmed down significantly. Since the beginning of 2011, newbuilding orders have been fewer and fewer. For seven months in a row, the monthly level of new orders has not exceeded 1.8 million DWT. In comparison, the monthly average of ordered tonnage during 2010 stood at 8.1 million DWT. The remaining order book stays biased towards the larger ships sizes, with the order book to active fleet ratios being the highest for Panamax (60,000-100,000 DWT) at 40.8% with the Capesize segment being runners-up at 32.2%. The corresponding ratios for Handysize and Handymax are 25.4% and 26.8%” said BIMCO in its research note.
Regarding freight rates, it noted that “Capesize Time Charter Average will remain under pressure but improve from current very low levels, although it will not exceed USD 12,000 per day. For the smaller segments, we forecast that the Panamax and Supramax freight rates are likely to get closer to each other and improve, but remain in the USD 8,000-13,000 per day interval. Handysize rates should improve and head up, staying in the interval of USD 8,000-11,000 per day interval” it said.
Demand-wise, BIMCO stated that “there is no doubt that it takes time from when commodities are bought and transportation fixed and executed to the cargo being landed at the buyer’s desired port of discharge. There’s also no doubt that buying activity for staple cargoes such as coal and iron ore was hectic during the final months of 2011. If import figures continue to stay elevated and market conditions for bulkers stay weak, we can only conclude that the oversupply glut is apparently more severe and even heavier than we expected. Weather-related disruptions could not steal the picture from the overall devastating development in dry bulk freight rates that began in the first half of December 2011 and went all the way to early February before the bleeding was stopped. Since then, we have not seen any significant rebound, but rates have firmed slowly. This was in line with our forecast made in the previous report” says the report.
BIMCO further attempted to explain why rates came down that sharply in the first couple of months. “By looking at the import figures for main commodities such as iron ore and coal into China, you will find little indication that demand has died down, but March figures may present a more complete picture. Some commodities have certainly seen a drop in demand.
In the past three months (December-February) China imported 197 million tons of iron ore – up by 12% y-o-y – and 54.8 million tons of coal, up by 36%. This special market condition was a Capesize event only. As the dawn broke on 2012, the overcapacity menace returned with a vengeance, bringing not only Capesize rates to the floor but also Panamax, Supramax and Handysize rates at the same time.
When following the recent development in freight rates it is now crystal clear that the January touch-down was a sticky one. Currently, Capesize rates are still trapped in the shadows of USD 5,000 per day. The Capesize vessels that used to rule the development of freight rates have lost their position. For long periods during 2011 – and again in 2012 – rates were significantly below any other ship size. The fundamental imbalance is taking its toll. On the contrary, Supramax rates have now moved up to USD 10,000 per day, a level sufficient to cover daily running costs. This is sadly not the case for the Capesize segment generally right now. Looking back a little bit on recent history, the overall picture is similar in pattern for the various dry bulk segments, but different in levels. The limited total fleet growth in 2009 was partly due to extensive recycling of tonnage (10.1 million DWT), partly due to the rather limited introduction of new tonnage, a picture that changed completely in 2010 with the first deliveries of an exorbitant ordering spree. Despite a rather healthy demand picture during recent years, it remains a sizeable challenge to the freight markets to absorb so much tonnage. This has once again been carved in stone during the first quarter of 2012 and by seeing the very high segment growth rates for Capesize and Handymax in particular, the latter has been able to weather the storm in much calmer waters due to its more flexible nature in ports, cargoes and grab-fittings” concluded BIMCO.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Friday, 01 December 23
COAL MINERS GROUP EXPECTS INDONESIA’S 2023 COAL OUTPUT TO SURPASS TARGET - REUTERS
The Indonesian Coal Mining Association (ICMA) expects the country’s 2023 coal output to surpass the official target of 695 million metric ton ...
Friday, 24 November 23
COAL IMPORTS TO INDIA IN OCTOBER 2023 REACHED HIGHEST LEVELS IN NEARLY A YEAR AND A HALF - VESSELSVALUE, VESON NAUTICAL
In October, coal imports to India reached 13.8 mt in October 2023, according to Oceanbolt, a Veson Nautical solution, the highest level since May 2 ...
Friday, 24 November 23
COAL SHIPMENTS TO ADVANCED ECONOMIES DOWN 17% SO FAR IN 2023 - BIMCO
In the first ten months of 2023, coal shipments to advanced economies fell by 17% y/y, as demand for electricity declined and the share of electric ...
Friday, 24 November 23
INTELLIGENT COAL MINES CONTRIBUTE TO IMPROVING SAFETY STANDARDS - CHINA DAILY
Mechanization, automation and intelligent upgrades have contributed to improved safety in coal mines, though the level of development of intelligen ...
Friday, 24 November 23
WHY AUSTRALIA'S COAL MINES ARE GETTING BIGGER - IEEFA
Australia’s largest coal mines are getting larger. Mines in New South Wales (NSW) are ramping up production following the state’s recov ...
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- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
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