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Thursday, 12 April 12
FIRST QUARTER OF 2012 SAW AN ADDITIONAL 24.2 MILLION DWT OF DRY BULK CARRIERS ENTERING THE FLEET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 The inflow of newbuilt dry bulk vessels was larger than expected in the first quarter of 2012. As much as 24.2 million DWT were added to the fleet. This represents a close-to-record level that is only challenged by the deliveries during Q1-2011 where 24.4 million were delivered says BIMCO in an analysis of the dry bulk market. “This development has prompted an upward adjustment to our supply growth forecast for 2012 that now reads 11.4% y-o-y. So far, the active fleet has grown by 2.9% in 2012 as 288 vessels have been delivered, offset by 6.9 million DWT being demolished. The growth in the Handysize segment included 63 vessels of 2.2 million DWT – making the sub-segment grow by 3.2% during the first quarter of 2012. Meanwhile, the Capesize fleet absorbed another 10.5 million DWT, causing the fleet to grow by 4.3% since 1 January.
On the contracting side, things have calmed down significantly. Since the beginning of 2011, newbuilding orders have been fewer and fewer. For seven months in a row, the monthly level of new orders has not exceeded 1.8 million DWT. In comparison, the monthly average of ordered tonnage during 2010 stood at 8.1 million DWT. The remaining order book stays biased towards the larger ships sizes, with the order book to active fleet ratios being the highest for Panamax (60,000-100,000 DWT) at 40.8% with the Capesize segment being runners-up at 32.2%. The corresponding ratios for Handysize and Handymax are 25.4% and 26.8%” said BIMCO in its research note.
Regarding freight rates, it noted that “Capesize Time Charter Average will remain under pressure but improve from current very low levels, although it will not exceed USD 12,000 per day. For the smaller segments, we forecast that the Panamax and Supramax freight rates are likely to get closer to each other and improve, but remain in the USD 8,000-13,000 per day interval. Handysize rates should improve and head up, staying in the interval of USD 8,000-11,000 per day interval” it said.
Demand-wise, BIMCO stated that “there is no doubt that it takes time from when commodities are bought and transportation fixed and executed to the cargo being landed at the buyer’s desired port of discharge. There’s also no doubt that buying activity for staple cargoes such as coal and iron ore was hectic during the final months of 2011. If import figures continue to stay elevated and market conditions for bulkers stay weak, we can only conclude that the oversupply glut is apparently more severe and even heavier than we expected. Weather-related disruptions could not steal the picture from the overall devastating development in dry bulk freight rates that began in the first half of December 2011 and went all the way to early February before the bleeding was stopped. Since then, we have not seen any significant rebound, but rates have firmed slowly. This was in line with our forecast made in the previous report” says the report.
BIMCO further attempted to explain why rates came down that sharply in the first couple of months. “By looking at the import figures for main commodities such as iron ore and coal into China, you will find little indication that demand has died down, but March figures may present a more complete picture. Some commodities have certainly seen a drop in demand.
In the past three months (December-February) China imported 197 million tons of iron ore – up by 12% y-o-y – and 54.8 million tons of coal, up by 36%. This special market condition was a Capesize event only. As the dawn broke on 2012, the overcapacity menace returned with a vengeance, bringing not only Capesize rates to the floor but also Panamax, Supramax and Handysize rates at the same time.
When following the recent development in freight rates it is now crystal clear that the January touch-down was a sticky one. Currently, Capesize rates are still trapped in the shadows of USD 5,000 per day. The Capesize vessels that used to rule the development of freight rates have lost their position. For long periods during 2011 – and again in 2012 – rates were significantly below any other ship size. The fundamental imbalance is taking its toll. On the contrary, Supramax rates have now moved up to USD 10,000 per day, a level sufficient to cover daily running costs. This is sadly not the case for the Capesize segment generally right now. Looking back a little bit on recent history, the overall picture is similar in pattern for the various dry bulk segments, but different in levels. The limited total fleet growth in 2009 was partly due to extensive recycling of tonnage (10.1 million DWT), partly due to the rather limited introduction of new tonnage, a picture that changed completely in 2010 with the first deliveries of an exorbitant ordering spree. Despite a rather healthy demand picture during recent years, it remains a sizeable challenge to the freight markets to absorb so much tonnage. This has once again been carved in stone during the first quarter of 2012 and by seeing the very high segment growth rates for Capesize and Handymax in particular, the latter has been able to weather the storm in much calmer waters due to its more flexible nature in ports, cargoes and grab-fittings” concluded BIMCO.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Wednesday, 31 January 24
CHINA'S INNER MONGOLIA COAL OUTPUT HIT 1.21B TONS IN 2023 - XINHUA
North China’s Inner Mongolia autonomous region churned out 1.21 billion tons of coal in 2023 as it strives to guarantee the country’s e ...
Wednesday, 31 January 24
GAS EXPORTS COST U.S. CONSUMERS MORE THAN $100 BILLION OVER 16-MONTH PERIOD - IEEFA
Limited Demand Growth Could Dampen the Dry Bulk Market in the Coming Months BIMCOStarting in late 2021—before its invasion of Ukraine—R ...
Tuesday, 30 January 24
LIMITED DEMAND GROWTH COULD DAMPEN THE DRY BULK MARKET IN THE COMING MONTHS - BIMCO
Demand
In our base scenario, we expect cargo demand to grow by 0-1% in 2024 and 0.5-1.5% in 2025. This is a 0.5 percentage point reduction for ...
Friday, 26 January 24
RED SEA DIVERSIONS ADD NEARLY A MILLION DOLLARS PER VOYAGE TO SHIPPING COSTS WHILE DOUBLING TRANSIT TIME - LSEG
The incremental costs of diverting a tanker from Asia to NW Europe via the Cape of Good Hope is accounting for an extra $932,905 USD per voyage whi ...
Friday, 26 January 24
HARD COAL GUARDIAN ANGEL OF THE ENERGY SUPPLY - GERMANY COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
- No security of supply without hard coal
- The Substitute Power Plant Provision Act (EKBG) must be extended
- Higher grid fees due to the ...
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- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
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- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Economic Council, Georgia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
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- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Australian Coal Association
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
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