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Thursday, 12 April 12
FIRST QUARTER OF 2012 SAW AN ADDITIONAL 24.2 MILLION DWT OF DRY BULK CARRIERS ENTERING THE FLEET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 The inflow of newbuilt dry bulk vessels was larger than expected in the first quarter of 2012. As much as 24.2 million DWT were added to the fleet. This represents a close-to-record level that is only challenged by the deliveries during Q1-2011 where 24.4 million were delivered says BIMCO in an analysis of the dry bulk market. “This development has prompted an upward adjustment to our supply growth forecast for 2012 that now reads 11.4% y-o-y. So far, the active fleet has grown by 2.9% in 2012 as 288 vessels have been delivered, offset by 6.9 million DWT being demolished. The growth in the Handysize segment included 63 vessels of 2.2 million DWT – making the sub-segment grow by 3.2% during the first quarter of 2012. Meanwhile, the Capesize fleet absorbed another 10.5 million DWT, causing the fleet to grow by 4.3% since 1 January.
On the contracting side, things have calmed down significantly. Since the beginning of 2011, newbuilding orders have been fewer and fewer. For seven months in a row, the monthly level of new orders has not exceeded 1.8 million DWT. In comparison, the monthly average of ordered tonnage during 2010 stood at 8.1 million DWT. The remaining order book stays biased towards the larger ships sizes, with the order book to active fleet ratios being the highest for Panamax (60,000-100,000 DWT) at 40.8% with the Capesize segment being runners-up at 32.2%. The corresponding ratios for Handysize and Handymax are 25.4% and 26.8%” said BIMCO in its research note.
Regarding freight rates, it noted that “Capesize Time Charter Average will remain under pressure but improve from current very low levels, although it will not exceed USD 12,000 per day. For the smaller segments, we forecast that the Panamax and Supramax freight rates are likely to get closer to each other and improve, but remain in the USD 8,000-13,000 per day interval. Handysize rates should improve and head up, staying in the interval of USD 8,000-11,000 per day interval” it said.
Demand-wise, BIMCO stated that “there is no doubt that it takes time from when commodities are bought and transportation fixed and executed to the cargo being landed at the buyer’s desired port of discharge. There’s also no doubt that buying activity for staple cargoes such as coal and iron ore was hectic during the final months of 2011. If import figures continue to stay elevated and market conditions for bulkers stay weak, we can only conclude that the oversupply glut is apparently more severe and even heavier than we expected. Weather-related disruptions could not steal the picture from the overall devastating development in dry bulk freight rates that began in the first half of December 2011 and went all the way to early February before the bleeding was stopped. Since then, we have not seen any significant rebound, but rates have firmed slowly. This was in line with our forecast made in the previous report” says the report.
BIMCO further attempted to explain why rates came down that sharply in the first couple of months. “By looking at the import figures for main commodities such as iron ore and coal into China, you will find little indication that demand has died down, but March figures may present a more complete picture. Some commodities have certainly seen a drop in demand.
In the past three months (December-February) China imported 197 million tons of iron ore – up by 12% y-o-y – and 54.8 million tons of coal, up by 36%. This special market condition was a Capesize event only. As the dawn broke on 2012, the overcapacity menace returned with a vengeance, bringing not only Capesize rates to the floor but also Panamax, Supramax and Handysize rates at the same time.
When following the recent development in freight rates it is now crystal clear that the January touch-down was a sticky one. Currently, Capesize rates are still trapped in the shadows of USD 5,000 per day. The Capesize vessels that used to rule the development of freight rates have lost their position. For long periods during 2011 – and again in 2012 – rates were significantly below any other ship size. The fundamental imbalance is taking its toll. On the contrary, Supramax rates have now moved up to USD 10,000 per day, a level sufficient to cover daily running costs. This is sadly not the case for the Capesize segment generally right now. Looking back a little bit on recent history, the overall picture is similar in pattern for the various dry bulk segments, but different in levels. The limited total fleet growth in 2009 was partly due to extensive recycling of tonnage (10.1 million DWT), partly due to the rather limited introduction of new tonnage, a picture that changed completely in 2010 with the first deliveries of an exorbitant ordering spree. Despite a rather healthy demand picture during recent years, it remains a sizeable challenge to the freight markets to absorb so much tonnage. This has once again been carved in stone during the first quarter of 2012 and by seeing the very high segment growth rates for Capesize and Handymax in particular, the latter has been able to weather the storm in much calmer waters due to its more flexible nature in ports, cargoes and grab-fittings” concluded BIMCO.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Friday, 05 January 24
BANGLADESH’S 2023 COAL-FIRED POWER OUTPUT TRIPLED, EASING SHORTAGES - REUTERS
Bangladesh nearly tripled its coal-fired power output in 2023, a Reuters analysis of government data showed, helping it tide over the worst power s ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
COAL TRADE CONTINUES TO HEAD EAST - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The global coal trade, once concentrated in the Pacific and Atlantic basins, is undergoing a significant transformation, as highlighted in the Inte ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
COAL CARGOES: AVOIDING EXPLOSION AND SELF-HEATING - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Despite its contribution to greenhouse gas emissions, global coal consumption climbed to an all-time high in 2022 and is ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
SINOPEC FORECASTS CHINA’S COAL CONSUMPTION TO PEAK AROUND 2025 - REUTERS
China Petrochemical Corp, or Sinopec, expects coal consumption to peak around 2025 at 4.37 billion metric tons, the state energy group said in an o ...
Thursday, 07 December 23
CHINA TO SET UP COAL PRODUCTION RESERVE TO STABILISE PRICES - REUTERS
China will establish a back-up coal production system by 2027 to stabilise prices and secure coal supply, the state planner said on Wednesday, even ...
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- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Australian Coal Association
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
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