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Thursday, 04 March 10
GLOBAL COAL PRICES GETS SUPPORT FROM EM DEMAND
 Commodity Online reported that, AP12 coal prices look well supported in 2010 thanks to positive outlook for Chinese coal demand whereas coal demand in Europe, rest of the world is shockingly low and stocks have hardly drawn despite the coldest winter in decades, according to an analysis by Bank of America- Merrill Lynch (BofAML).
Japan, by far the biggest importer of thermal coal, cut back on its appetite for coal by almost 20 million mt last year, to 117million mt. Europe took in 22 million metric tons less last year, driven particularly by Spain, Italy, the UK and France as low natural gas prices supported switching out of coal in the power sector
Last year China imported 70.4 mn mt of thermal coal, relative to outflows of 7.8 mn in 2008. China's imports will witness slowdown due to ramping up of internal proudction, according to BofAML.
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“Last year China imported 70.4 mln mt of thermal coal, relative to outflows of 7.8 mln in 2008. China's imports will witness slowdown due to ramping up of internal production” - BofAML
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Coal prices are protected to the downside by the high marginal cost of production, particularly in Russia. However, the oversupply in Europe will likely keep a lid on API2 prices near-term.
API2 front month coal increased from a low of $75/mt in mid December to $97/mt in early January, sharply outpacing other energy markets. Heavy snowstorms led to local power shortages, particularly in the South of the country.
Perhaps more importantly, a much stronger-than-expected cyclical rebound in China drove power generation growth to new highs, up 33% YoY over the past three months, helping to fuel coal demand. Other Asian countries also experienced a turn-around in electricity generation. In turn, due to the heavy snowfall and rail constraints, China resorted to seaborne coal as opposed to domestically produced material. Elsewhere, a glaringly cold winter in Europe provided some support to sentiment. Producer infrastructure constraints, particularly in Australia, South Africa and Indonesia, temporarily tightened the international coal market.
Ultimately, the 3-week rally in coal did not last and prices reversed sharply in mid January as the snowfalls in China receded and the USD strengthened. In recent weeks, front-month API2 coal traded down to $72.75/mt and has been in the $72/mt to $79/mt range. Chinese imports in January, though still at a very high level, cooled off month-on-month basis. Moreover, big European coal users, like Germany, France and the UK, recorded steep demand losses in January, at a time that they experienced the sharpest winter in decade, BofAML analysis said.
In the UK for instance, coal demand in December equalled 4.6 million mt, down from 6.3 million mt in the prior year. Preliminary data indicates that the trend continued over the past weeks.
Traditional European coal suppliers are doing what they can to manage supply to Europe. Russia has reportedly closed some mines to keep exports to Europe low. South Africa is actively diversifying away from Europe towards demand outlets in Asia Pacific. During 2009, 31% of South African exports went to India, from virtually nothing in previous years. That trend was particularly pronounced over the past months. Although in small volumes, South Africa has also been pushing material into China. More absurdly, Colombia-- who typically exports 50-60% of their coal to Europe with the balance going to the Americas--
has now detected interest in Asia.
Colombia exported small volumes to China in December to the tune of 1.5-1.7 million mt, for the first time ever. Of course, sharply lower freight rates are helping these trade flows. As we see continued supply of new Capesize vessels in 2010, freight will likely remain cheap by historical standards in the near-term. Once freight recovers, possibly at the end of this year with the cyclical demand recovery soaking up the supply in ships, these trade-flows are unlikely to be sustainable.
Europe's coal inventories remain at excessive levels at key import ports in Rotterdam and Amsterdam as supply exceeds demand. BofAML sses strong relationship between spreads in AP12 and coal inventories. Hence it is no surprise that the contango in API2 has steepened even more, with front month to front calendar year spreads at the widest since July last year , reflecting the oversupply in the European market and bulging inventories.
Coal markets in the Pacific are a lot tighter, with inventories relatively low in key coal consumers like China, India and South Korea. Meanwhile, the Newcastle coal market is trading in backwardation. Several coal mines in Australia had to declare force majeure in response to severe rainfalls on the east coast which flooded mines, while major rail lines had to close, clogging up the coal chain infrastructure. 47 vessels are currently again lining up outside Newcastle , underscoring that infrastructure problems will not go away easily, BofAML analysis said.
Overall, the outlook for emerging market coal demand remains very positive though. China is expected buy more seaborne coal as as the Chinese Renminbi is likely to be revalued by mid year. In BofAMl analysis, a CNY revaluation is undoubtedly positive for global thermal coal prices. Other EMs likeMexico and Turkey are sharply ramping up coal imports. India continues to suffer from a negative coal balance and will have to rely on the seaborne market for supplies. On a medium-term horizon, we believe that global seaborne coal prices have immense upside from the current level given the growth in coal-fired generation capacity.
Source:Commodity Online - By Madhurima R S
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Tuesday, 23 February 10
UAE COMPANY TO ACQUIRE CONTROL OF ALLBOND MAKMUR
The Jakarta globe reported that, Renuka Energy Resources Holding, based in the United Arab Emirates, has signed an agreement to acquire 80 percent o ...
Tuesday, 23 February 10
CIL SHORTLISTS 24 FOREIGN COS FOR JV
India's Economic Times reported that, Coal India has shortlisted 24 foreign firms — six each from the US, Australia, South Africa and Indones ...
Saturday, 20 February 10
THE FREIGHT MARKET CONTINUED TO BE SOFT THIS WEEK - CAPT. REDDY
COALspot.com: The freight market continued to be soft this week as still affect of Chinese new year holidays continue. However the index overall had ...
Friday, 19 February 10
MAKING THE JOINT COOPERATION OF PRIVATE GOVERNMENT IN INDONESIA
COALspot.com - Press Release
1. Revision of the presidential decree 67/2005 has been signed by the President on January 28, 2010 with the public ...
Thursday, 18 February 10
THE INDIAN MARKET IS FIRMING A BIT, DUE TO LACK OF TONNAGE IN THE REGION
HANDY
The BSI still decline as holidays around the world have reduced trading.
...
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- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
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