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Thursday, 04 March 10
GLOBAL COAL PRICES GETS SUPPORT FROM EM DEMAND
 Commodity Online reported that, AP12 coal prices look well supported in 2010 thanks to positive outlook for Chinese coal demand whereas coal demand in Europe, rest of the world is shockingly low and stocks have hardly drawn despite the coldest winter in decades, according to an analysis by Bank of America- Merrill Lynch (BofAML).
Japan, by far the biggest importer of thermal coal, cut back on its appetite for coal by almost 20 million mt last year, to 117million mt. Europe took in 22 million metric tons less last year, driven particularly by Spain, Italy, the UK and France as low natural gas prices supported switching out of coal in the power sector
Last year China imported 70.4 mn mt of thermal coal, relative to outflows of 7.8 mn in 2008. China's imports will witness slowdown due to ramping up of internal proudction, according to BofAML.
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“Last year China imported 70.4 mln mt of thermal coal, relative to outflows of 7.8 mln in 2008. China's imports will witness slowdown due to ramping up of internal production” - BofAML
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Coal prices are protected to the downside by the high marginal cost of production, particularly in Russia. However, the oversupply in Europe will likely keep a lid on API2 prices near-term.
API2 front month coal increased from a low of $75/mt in mid December to $97/mt in early January, sharply outpacing other energy markets. Heavy snowstorms led to local power shortages, particularly in the South of the country.
Perhaps more importantly, a much stronger-than-expected cyclical rebound in China drove power generation growth to new highs, up 33% YoY over the past three months, helping to fuel coal demand. Other Asian countries also experienced a turn-around in electricity generation. In turn, due to the heavy snowfall and rail constraints, China resorted to seaborne coal as opposed to domestically produced material. Elsewhere, a glaringly cold winter in Europe provided some support to sentiment. Producer infrastructure constraints, particularly in Australia, South Africa and Indonesia, temporarily tightened the international coal market.
Ultimately, the 3-week rally in coal did not last and prices reversed sharply in mid January as the snowfalls in China receded and the USD strengthened. In recent weeks, front-month API2 coal traded down to $72.75/mt and has been in the $72/mt to $79/mt range. Chinese imports in January, though still at a very high level, cooled off month-on-month basis. Moreover, big European coal users, like Germany, France and the UK, recorded steep demand losses in January, at a time that they experienced the sharpest winter in decade, BofAML analysis said.
In the UK for instance, coal demand in December equalled 4.6 million mt, down from 6.3 million mt in the prior year. Preliminary data indicates that the trend continued over the past weeks.
Traditional European coal suppliers are doing what they can to manage supply to Europe. Russia has reportedly closed some mines to keep exports to Europe low. South Africa is actively diversifying away from Europe towards demand outlets in Asia Pacific. During 2009, 31% of South African exports went to India, from virtually nothing in previous years. That trend was particularly pronounced over the past months. Although in small volumes, South Africa has also been pushing material into China. More absurdly, Colombia-- who typically exports 50-60% of their coal to Europe with the balance going to the Americas--
has now detected interest in Asia.
Colombia exported small volumes to China in December to the tune of 1.5-1.7 million mt, for the first time ever. Of course, sharply lower freight rates are helping these trade flows. As we see continued supply of new Capesize vessels in 2010, freight will likely remain cheap by historical standards in the near-term. Once freight recovers, possibly at the end of this year with the cyclical demand recovery soaking up the supply in ships, these trade-flows are unlikely to be sustainable.
Europe's coal inventories remain at excessive levels at key import ports in Rotterdam and Amsterdam as supply exceeds demand. BofAML sses strong relationship between spreads in AP12 and coal inventories. Hence it is no surprise that the contango in API2 has steepened even more, with front month to front calendar year spreads at the widest since July last year , reflecting the oversupply in the European market and bulging inventories.
Coal markets in the Pacific are a lot tighter, with inventories relatively low in key coal consumers like China, India and South Korea. Meanwhile, the Newcastle coal market is trading in backwardation. Several coal mines in Australia had to declare force majeure in response to severe rainfalls on the east coast which flooded mines, while major rail lines had to close, clogging up the coal chain infrastructure. 47 vessels are currently again lining up outside Newcastle , underscoring that infrastructure problems will not go away easily, BofAML analysis said.
Overall, the outlook for emerging market coal demand remains very positive though. China is expected buy more seaborne coal as as the Chinese Renminbi is likely to be revalued by mid year. In BofAMl analysis, a CNY revaluation is undoubtedly positive for global thermal coal prices. Other EMs likeMexico and Turkey are sharply ramping up coal imports. India continues to suffer from a negative coal balance and will have to rely on the seaborne market for supplies. On a medium-term horizon, we believe that global seaborne coal prices have immense upside from the current level given the growth in coal-fired generation capacity.
Source:Commodity Online - By Madhurima R S
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Wednesday, 17 February 10
JORONG COULD COST BANPU 5%
Banpu Plc, Asean's biggest coal miner, forecasts a 5% drop in revenue if its suspended coal mine in Indonesia is closed for one year, says presiden ...
Wednesday, 17 February 10
RUSSIA KRU JAN COAL EXPORTS DOWN 4 PCT
Kuzbassrazrezugol, Russia's second largest steam coal producer, exported 1.859 million tonnes of coal last month, down 80,000 tonnes or 4 percent f ...
Wednesday, 17 February 10
VEDANTA SET FOR PORTS ENTRY WITH VIZAG TENDER
Vedanta, along with Leighton Contractors India, quoted a revenue share of 38.1% to win the 30-year contract
Mining and metals conglomerate Vedant ...
Tuesday, 16 February 10
TRENDS DRY BULK MARKET ... TRENDS - BRS
The start of the Chinese New Year had an immediate impact on rates and for once all the dry bulk segments lost similar ground.
The BDI fell 5%, a ...
Tuesday, 16 February 10
LAW POSES THREAT TO INDONESIA'S COAL INDUSTRY
A zoning law could cost coal miners billions of dollars this year alone, hurt investment in the industry and disrupt the supply of the fuel to the c ...
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Showing 5986 to 5990 news of total 6871 |
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- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
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