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Thursday, 04 March 10
GLOBAL COAL PRICES GETS SUPPORT FROM EM DEMAND
 Commodity Online reported that, AP12 coal prices look well supported in 2010 thanks to positive outlook for Chinese coal demand whereas coal demand in Europe, rest of the world is shockingly low and stocks have hardly drawn despite the coldest winter in decades, according to an analysis by Bank of America- Merrill Lynch (BofAML).
Japan, by far the biggest importer of thermal coal, cut back on its appetite for coal by almost 20 million mt last year, to 117million mt. Europe took in 22 million metric tons less last year, driven particularly by Spain, Italy, the UK and France as low natural gas prices supported switching out of coal in the power sector
Last year China imported 70.4 mn mt of thermal coal, relative to outflows of 7.8 mn in 2008. China's imports will witness slowdown due to ramping up of internal proudction, according to BofAML.
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“Last year China imported 70.4 mln mt of thermal coal, relative to outflows of 7.8 mln in 2008. China's imports will witness slowdown due to ramping up of internal production” - BofAML
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Coal prices are protected to the downside by the high marginal cost of production, particularly in Russia. However, the oversupply in Europe will likely keep a lid on API2 prices near-term.
API2 front month coal increased from a low of $75/mt in mid December to $97/mt in early January, sharply outpacing other energy markets. Heavy snowstorms led to local power shortages, particularly in the South of the country.
Perhaps more importantly, a much stronger-than-expected cyclical rebound in China drove power generation growth to new highs, up 33% YoY over the past three months, helping to fuel coal demand. Other Asian countries also experienced a turn-around in electricity generation. In turn, due to the heavy snowfall and rail constraints, China resorted to seaborne coal as opposed to domestically produced material. Elsewhere, a glaringly cold winter in Europe provided some support to sentiment. Producer infrastructure constraints, particularly in Australia, South Africa and Indonesia, temporarily tightened the international coal market.
Ultimately, the 3-week rally in coal did not last and prices reversed sharply in mid January as the snowfalls in China receded and the USD strengthened. In recent weeks, front-month API2 coal traded down to $72.75/mt and has been in the $72/mt to $79/mt range. Chinese imports in January, though still at a very high level, cooled off month-on-month basis. Moreover, big European coal users, like Germany, France and the UK, recorded steep demand losses in January, at a time that they experienced the sharpest winter in decade, BofAML analysis said.
In the UK for instance, coal demand in December equalled 4.6 million mt, down from 6.3 million mt in the prior year. Preliminary data indicates that the trend continued over the past weeks.
Traditional European coal suppliers are doing what they can to manage supply to Europe. Russia has reportedly closed some mines to keep exports to Europe low. South Africa is actively diversifying away from Europe towards demand outlets in Asia Pacific. During 2009, 31% of South African exports went to India, from virtually nothing in previous years. That trend was particularly pronounced over the past months. Although in small volumes, South Africa has also been pushing material into China. More absurdly, Colombia-- who typically exports 50-60% of their coal to Europe with the balance going to the Americas--
has now detected interest in Asia.
Colombia exported small volumes to China in December to the tune of 1.5-1.7 million mt, for the first time ever. Of course, sharply lower freight rates are helping these trade flows. As we see continued supply of new Capesize vessels in 2010, freight will likely remain cheap by historical standards in the near-term. Once freight recovers, possibly at the end of this year with the cyclical demand recovery soaking up the supply in ships, these trade-flows are unlikely to be sustainable.
Europe's coal inventories remain at excessive levels at key import ports in Rotterdam and Amsterdam as supply exceeds demand. BofAML sses strong relationship between spreads in AP12 and coal inventories. Hence it is no surprise that the contango in API2 has steepened even more, with front month to front calendar year spreads at the widest since July last year , reflecting the oversupply in the European market and bulging inventories.
Coal markets in the Pacific are a lot tighter, with inventories relatively low in key coal consumers like China, India and South Korea. Meanwhile, the Newcastle coal market is trading in backwardation. Several coal mines in Australia had to declare force majeure in response to severe rainfalls on the east coast which flooded mines, while major rail lines had to close, clogging up the coal chain infrastructure. 47 vessels are currently again lining up outside Newcastle , underscoring that infrastructure problems will not go away easily, BofAML analysis said.
Overall, the outlook for emerging market coal demand remains very positive though. China is expected buy more seaborne coal as as the Chinese Renminbi is likely to be revalued by mid year. In BofAMl analysis, a CNY revaluation is undoubtedly positive for global thermal coal prices. Other EMs likeMexico and Turkey are sharply ramping up coal imports. India continues to suffer from a negative coal balance and will have to rely on the seaborne market for supplies. On a medium-term horizon, we believe that global seaborne coal prices have immense upside from the current level given the growth in coal-fired generation capacity.
Source:Commodity Online - By Madhurima R S
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Friday, 26 February 10
BANPU PROFITS SURGE BY 54% TO RECORD B14BN ON BRISK SALES
Banpu Plc, Asean's largest coal miner, said its earnings surged to a record high of 14.23 billion baht last year, an increase of 54% on the previou ...
Thursday, 25 February 10
INDO / INDIA COAL TRIPS SUPRAS CAN ACHIEVE AROUND MID 10S - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
The BSI regained positive momentum exactly a week ago and the Atlantic rema ...
Thursday, 25 February 10
STEEP RISE IN COAL IMPORTS REQUIRED TO POWER INDIA - MONEYLIFE
The power ministry has estimated coal imports of 48 million tonnes in FY10-11, sharply higher than the expected imports of 28mt in the current fisca ...
Wednesday, 24 February 10
CHINA IMPORTED 8.81 MLN TONS OF INDONESIAN COAL IN JANUARY 2010
COALspot.com: Indonesia, the world largest coal exporter, exported 24.38 million tons of coal last month, compared with 27.46 million tons in a ...
Tuesday, 23 February 10
TRENDS..... DRY BULK MARKET .... TRENDS
The dry bulk market was pulled along by the Capes this week, as fresh enquiry breathed temporary life back into the market. Short period rates also ...
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Showing 5971 to 5975 news of total 6871 |
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- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PTC India Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
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