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Thursday, 04 March 10
GLOBAL COAL PRICES GETS SUPPORT FROM EM DEMAND
 Commodity Online reported that, AP12 coal prices look well supported in 2010 thanks to positive outlook for Chinese coal demand whereas coal demand in Europe, rest of the world is shockingly low and stocks have hardly drawn despite the coldest winter in decades, according to an analysis by Bank of America- Merrill Lynch (BofAML).
Japan, by far the biggest importer of thermal coal, cut back on its appetite for coal by almost 20 million mt last year, to 117million mt. Europe took in 22 million metric tons less last year, driven particularly by Spain, Italy, the UK and France as low natural gas prices supported switching out of coal in the power sector
Last year China imported 70.4 mn mt of thermal coal, relative to outflows of 7.8 mn in 2008. China's imports will witness slowdown due to ramping up of internal proudction, according to BofAML.
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“Last year China imported 70.4 mln mt of thermal coal, relative to outflows of 7.8 mln in 2008. China's imports will witness slowdown due to ramping up of internal production” - BofAML
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Coal prices are protected to the downside by the high marginal cost of production, particularly in Russia. However, the oversupply in Europe will likely keep a lid on API2 prices near-term.
API2 front month coal increased from a low of $75/mt in mid December to $97/mt in early January, sharply outpacing other energy markets. Heavy snowstorms led to local power shortages, particularly in the South of the country.
Perhaps more importantly, a much stronger-than-expected cyclical rebound in China drove power generation growth to new highs, up 33% YoY over the past three months, helping to fuel coal demand. Other Asian countries also experienced a turn-around in electricity generation. In turn, due to the heavy snowfall and rail constraints, China resorted to seaborne coal as opposed to domestically produced material. Elsewhere, a glaringly cold winter in Europe provided some support to sentiment. Producer infrastructure constraints, particularly in Australia, South Africa and Indonesia, temporarily tightened the international coal market.
Ultimately, the 3-week rally in coal did not last and prices reversed sharply in mid January as the snowfalls in China receded and the USD strengthened. In recent weeks, front-month API2 coal traded down to $72.75/mt and has been in the $72/mt to $79/mt range. Chinese imports in January, though still at a very high level, cooled off month-on-month basis. Moreover, big European coal users, like Germany, France and the UK, recorded steep demand losses in January, at a time that they experienced the sharpest winter in decade, BofAML analysis said.
In the UK for instance, coal demand in December equalled 4.6 million mt, down from 6.3 million mt in the prior year. Preliminary data indicates that the trend continued over the past weeks.
Traditional European coal suppliers are doing what they can to manage supply to Europe. Russia has reportedly closed some mines to keep exports to Europe low. South Africa is actively diversifying away from Europe towards demand outlets in Asia Pacific. During 2009, 31% of South African exports went to India, from virtually nothing in previous years. That trend was particularly pronounced over the past months. Although in small volumes, South Africa has also been pushing material into China. More absurdly, Colombia-- who typically exports 50-60% of their coal to Europe with the balance going to the Americas--
has now detected interest in Asia.
Colombia exported small volumes to China in December to the tune of 1.5-1.7 million mt, for the first time ever. Of course, sharply lower freight rates are helping these trade flows. As we see continued supply of new Capesize vessels in 2010, freight will likely remain cheap by historical standards in the near-term. Once freight recovers, possibly at the end of this year with the cyclical demand recovery soaking up the supply in ships, these trade-flows are unlikely to be sustainable.
Europe's coal inventories remain at excessive levels at key import ports in Rotterdam and Amsterdam as supply exceeds demand. BofAML sses strong relationship between spreads in AP12 and coal inventories. Hence it is no surprise that the contango in API2 has steepened even more, with front month to front calendar year spreads at the widest since July last year , reflecting the oversupply in the European market and bulging inventories.
Coal markets in the Pacific are a lot tighter, with inventories relatively low in key coal consumers like China, India and South Korea. Meanwhile, the Newcastle coal market is trading in backwardation. Several coal mines in Australia had to declare force majeure in response to severe rainfalls on the east coast which flooded mines, while major rail lines had to close, clogging up the coal chain infrastructure. 47 vessels are currently again lining up outside Newcastle , underscoring that infrastructure problems will not go away easily, BofAML analysis said.
Overall, the outlook for emerging market coal demand remains very positive though. China is expected buy more seaborne coal as as the Chinese Renminbi is likely to be revalued by mid year. In BofAMl analysis, a CNY revaluation is undoubtedly positive for global thermal coal prices. Other EMs likeMexico and Turkey are sharply ramping up coal imports. India continues to suffer from a negative coal balance and will have to rely on the seaborne market for supplies. On a medium-term horizon, we believe that global seaborne coal prices have immense upside from the current level given the growth in coal-fired generation capacity.
Source:Commodity Online - By Madhurima R S
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Friday, 26 February 10
BANPU PROFITS SURGE BY 54% TO RECORD B14BN ON BRISK SALES
Banpu Plc, Asean's largest coal miner, said its earnings surged to a record high of 14.23 billion baht last year, an increase of 54% on the previou ...
Thursday, 25 February 10
INDO / INDIA COAL TRIPS SUPRAS CAN ACHIEVE AROUND MID 10S - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
The BSI regained positive momentum exactly a week ago and the Atlantic rema ...
Thursday, 25 February 10
STEEP RISE IN COAL IMPORTS REQUIRED TO POWER INDIA - MONEYLIFE
The power ministry has estimated coal imports of 48 million tonnes in FY10-11, sharply higher than the expected imports of 28mt in the current fisca ...
Wednesday, 24 February 10
CHINA IMPORTED 8.81 MLN TONS OF INDONESIAN COAL IN JANUARY 2010
COALspot.com: Indonesia, the world largest coal exporter, exported 24.38 million tons of coal last month, compared with 27.46 million tons in a ...
Tuesday, 23 February 10
TRENDS..... DRY BULK MARKET .... TRENDS
The dry bulk market was pulled along by the Capes this week, as fresh enquiry breathed temporary life back into the market. Short period rates also ...
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Showing 5971 to 5975 news of total 6871 |
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- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Australian Coal Association
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Planning Commission, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
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