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Friday, 02 August 24
COAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: FALLING PRICES AMID RECORD-HIGH OUTPUT - WORLD BANK
 Coal prices inched up in May (m/m) following an 8 percent decline in 2024Q1. The Australian and South African benchmarks have plummeted more than 60 percent from their peaks in 2022, driven by soft economic activity and lower gas prices, which negatively affected demand for coal in the power sector. This significant drop has been bolstered by robust supply and gradually increasing penetration of renewable electricity. Nonetheless, prices remain well above their 2015-19 average. A sharp decline in prices has already unfolded in 2024, compared to the 2023 average, with further reductions anticipated in 2025 as renewable power generation meets rising electricity demand. Major risks to this outlook include stronger-than-expected growth in China's power output and hydropower shortfalls.
Global consumption hits a record high. In 2023, coal consumption is estimated to have reached a record high, increasing by 120 million tons (1.4 percent) compared to 2022. However, demand growth decelerated due to weak global economic activity, high penetration of renewable electricity, and lower natural gas prices. In the United States and the European Union, demand fell by an estimated 100 million tons each, while it rose by approximately 220 million tons in China and 100 million tons in India. The global demand shift towards Asia persisted in 2023, with China and India currently accounting for 70 percent of total consumption.
Global coal production remains robust. Production is estimated to have increased by about 150 million tons (Mmt) in 2023. In India, output rose by approximately 100 Mmt, while China's production grew by about 50 Mmt, partly due to enhanced safety measures in domestic mines. Conversely, production in the United States and the European Union declined by roughly 50 Mmt and 70 Mmt, respectively. In Australia, production stagnated due to labor shortages and sluggish exports to China, which have not fully recovered after China lifted its ban on Australian imports in January 2023, originally imposed in 2021.
Global trade reaches record highs. In 2023, global coal trade is estimated to have reached a record high, increasing by 100 Mmt. The growth was largely driven by a 150 Mmt rise in Chinese imports, as domestic production could not keep pace with growing consumption. Reflecting these consumption patterns, the Asia Pacific region accounted for approximately 80 percent of global coal imports. In the meantime, the European Union has continued to substitute exports from Russia by increasing trade with several commercial partners including the Australia, Colombia, South Africa and the United States.
Coal prices are expected to decline by 28 percent in 2024 and a further 12 percent in 2025. Upside risks to the coal price outlook includes higher-than-expected growth in China’s consumption and various factors that could lower renewable electricity production, such as low rainfall or light wind conditions. Downside risks include ample supply and weaker-than-expected global growth. The baseline assumption that China’s coal demand peaked in 2023 may be challenged by stronger-than-expected growth in power generation, as seen in 2021, or shortfalls in output from hydropower, as in 2023. Additionally, new coal mines are under development in China, and about 110 GW of coal plants were approved in 2023, indicating that domestic coal consumption could continue to rise. Production data covering 2024Q1 indicate that coal demand in the power sector in China will increase in 2024 unless renewable generation booms over the summer months or demand for electricity decreases.
By Paolo Agnolucci & Kaltrina Temaj
World Bank
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Friday, 17 March 23
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE UP AROUND 2.17% IN MARCH 2023
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference up around 2.17% in March 2023.
According to the new HBA regulation No. 41.K/MB.0 ...
Saturday, 11 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Uncertainty over the recovery of Chinese demand, demand destruction in Europe, as well as weather conditions will pivot the LNG market this summer. ...
Wednesday, 08 March 23
INDONESIAN COAL REFERENCE PRICE FORMULA HAS OFFICIALLY CHANGED
Indonesian Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources has officially changed the guideline for determining the benchmark price for the sale of coal c ...
Thursday, 02 March 23
INDIA'S SEABORNE CRUDE OIL IMPORTS IN 2022 INCREASED BY 11.5% YOY - BANCHERO COSTA
2022 has turned out to be a very positive year for crude oil trade, despite the surging oil prices and risks of economic recession, Banchero Costa ...
Thursday, 02 March 23
DRY BULK MARKET: THE WAY CHINA GOES, SO GOES THE MARKET - BIMCO
We expect demand growth within the 1.5-2.5% range in 2023, driven by China’s economic recovery. Improvements in consumer sentiment should hel ...
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- London Commodity Brokers - England
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- PTC India Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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