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Friday, 02 August 24
COAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: FALLING PRICES AMID RECORD-HIGH OUTPUT - WORLD BANK
 Coal prices inched up in May (m/m) following an 8 percent decline in 2024Q1. The Australian and South African benchmarks have plummeted more than 60 percent from their peaks in 2022, driven by soft economic activity and lower gas prices, which negatively affected demand for coal in the power sector. This significant drop has been bolstered by robust supply and gradually increasing penetration of renewable electricity. Nonetheless, prices remain well above their 2015-19 average. A sharp decline in prices has already unfolded in 2024, compared to the 2023 average, with further reductions anticipated in 2025 as renewable power generation meets rising electricity demand. Major risks to this outlook include stronger-than-expected growth in China's power output and hydropower shortfalls.
Global consumption hits a record high. In 2023, coal consumption is estimated to have reached a record high, increasing by 120 million tons (1.4 percent) compared to 2022. However, demand growth decelerated due to weak global economic activity, high penetration of renewable electricity, and lower natural gas prices. In the United States and the European Union, demand fell by an estimated 100 million tons each, while it rose by approximately 220 million tons in China and 100 million tons in India. The global demand shift towards Asia persisted in 2023, with China and India currently accounting for 70 percent of total consumption.
Global coal production remains robust. Production is estimated to have increased by about 150 million tons (Mmt) in 2023. In India, output rose by approximately 100 Mmt, while China's production grew by about 50 Mmt, partly due to enhanced safety measures in domestic mines. Conversely, production in the United States and the European Union declined by roughly 50 Mmt and 70 Mmt, respectively. In Australia, production stagnated due to labor shortages and sluggish exports to China, which have not fully recovered after China lifted its ban on Australian imports in January 2023, originally imposed in 2021.
Global trade reaches record highs. In 2023, global coal trade is estimated to have reached a record high, increasing by 100 Mmt. The growth was largely driven by a 150 Mmt rise in Chinese imports, as domestic production could not keep pace with growing consumption. Reflecting these consumption patterns, the Asia Pacific region accounted for approximately 80 percent of global coal imports. In the meantime, the European Union has continued to substitute exports from Russia by increasing trade with several commercial partners including the Australia, Colombia, South Africa and the United States.
Coal prices are expected to decline by 28 percent in 2024 and a further 12 percent in 2025. Upside risks to the coal price outlook includes higher-than-expected growth in China’s consumption and various factors that could lower renewable electricity production, such as low rainfall or light wind conditions. Downside risks include ample supply and weaker-than-expected global growth. The baseline assumption that China’s coal demand peaked in 2023 may be challenged by stronger-than-expected growth in power generation, as seen in 2021, or shortfalls in output from hydropower, as in 2023. Additionally, new coal mines are under development in China, and about 110 GW of coal plants were approved in 2023, indicating that domestic coal consumption could continue to rise. Production data covering 2024Q1 indicate that coal demand in the power sector in China will increase in 2024 unless renewable generation booms over the summer months or demand for electricity decreases.
By Paolo Agnolucci & Kaltrina Temaj
World Bank
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Saturday, 25 February 23
INDONESIA IS STILL BY FAR THE TOP SUPPLIER OF COAL TO CHINA - BANCHERO COSTA
After a slow start in the first quarter, global coal trade has really picked up pace last year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels, said ban ...
Wednesday, 22 February 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The short-term outlook of the global soybean market is currently pivoted by a combination of weather patterns that are affecting the harvest progre ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
OIL UNLIKELY TO BREAK ABOVE $100/BBL THIS YEAR, J.P.MORGAN SAYS –- REUTERS
Brent oil prices are unlikely to breach the $100 a barrel level this year, barring any significant geopolitical drivers, with OPEC+ potentially add ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
CHINA'S COAL PRICES FALL TO 1 YR-LOW, CLOUDING DEMAND AND IMPORT OUTLOOK - REUTERS
China’s thermal coal prices hit their lowest levels in a year this week on rising inventories as domestic mine production is recovering faste ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
PAKISTAN PLANS TO QUADRUPLE DOMESTIC COAL-FIRED POWER, MOVE AWAY FROM GAS - REUTERS
Pakistan plans to quadruple its domestic coal-fired capacity to reduce power generation costs and will not build new gas-fired plants in the coming ...
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- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
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