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Friday, 02 August 24
COAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: FALLING PRICES AMID RECORD-HIGH OUTPUT - WORLD BANK
 Coal prices inched up in May (m/m) following an 8 percent decline in 2024Q1. The Australian and South African benchmarks have plummeted more than 60 percent from their peaks in 2022, driven by soft economic activity and lower gas prices, which negatively affected demand for coal in the power sector. This significant drop has been bolstered by robust supply and gradually increasing penetration of renewable electricity. Nonetheless, prices remain well above their 2015-19 average. A sharp decline in prices has already unfolded in 2024, compared to the 2023 average, with further reductions anticipated in 2025 as renewable power generation meets rising electricity demand. Major risks to this outlook include stronger-than-expected growth in China's power output and hydropower shortfalls.
Global consumption hits a record high. In 2023, coal consumption is estimated to have reached a record high, increasing by 120 million tons (1.4 percent) compared to 2022. However, demand growth decelerated due to weak global economic activity, high penetration of renewable electricity, and lower natural gas prices. In the United States and the European Union, demand fell by an estimated 100 million tons each, while it rose by approximately 220 million tons in China and 100 million tons in India. The global demand shift towards Asia persisted in 2023, with China and India currently accounting for 70 percent of total consumption.
Global coal production remains robust. Production is estimated to have increased by about 150 million tons (Mmt) in 2023. In India, output rose by approximately 100 Mmt, while China's production grew by about 50 Mmt, partly due to enhanced safety measures in domestic mines. Conversely, production in the United States and the European Union declined by roughly 50 Mmt and 70 Mmt, respectively. In Australia, production stagnated due to labor shortages and sluggish exports to China, which have not fully recovered after China lifted its ban on Australian imports in January 2023, originally imposed in 2021.
Global trade reaches record highs. In 2023, global coal trade is estimated to have reached a record high, increasing by 100 Mmt. The growth was largely driven by a 150 Mmt rise in Chinese imports, as domestic production could not keep pace with growing consumption. Reflecting these consumption patterns, the Asia Pacific region accounted for approximately 80 percent of global coal imports. In the meantime, the European Union has continued to substitute exports from Russia by increasing trade with several commercial partners including the Australia, Colombia, South Africa and the United States.
Coal prices are expected to decline by 28 percent in 2024 and a further 12 percent in 2025. Upside risks to the coal price outlook includes higher-than-expected growth in China’s consumption and various factors that could lower renewable electricity production, such as low rainfall or light wind conditions. Downside risks include ample supply and weaker-than-expected global growth. The baseline assumption that China’s coal demand peaked in 2023 may be challenged by stronger-than-expected growth in power generation, as seen in 2021, or shortfalls in output from hydropower, as in 2023. Additionally, new coal mines are under development in China, and about 110 GW of coal plants were approved in 2023, indicating that domestic coal consumption could continue to rise. Production data covering 2024Q1 indicate that coal demand in the power sector in China will increase in 2024 unless renewable generation booms over the summer months or demand for electricity decreases.
By Paolo Agnolucci & Kaltrina Temaj
World Bank
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Wednesday, 22 March 23
WILL LOWER GAS PRICES SPARK SWITCHING IN EUROPE AND ASIA?
Record high prices devastated demand for gas and LNG across Asia and Europe last year. But with prices falling, companies are starting to re-evalua ...
Monday, 20 March 23
NTPC MULLS 5.4 MILLION TONNES COAL IMPORT IN FIRST HALF OF 2023-24: PTI
State-run power giant NTPC is planning to import around 5.4 million tonnes of coal to meet the supply shortage during the first half 2023-24 fiscal ...
Monday, 20 March 23
S. AFRICA’S EXXARO RESOURCES SAYS COAL PRICES COOLING OFF - REUTERS
South Africa’s Exxaro Resources on Thursday posted a 28% jump in 2022 profit after seeing average coal prices surge more than 150%, but warne ...
Saturday, 18 March 23
RUSSIAN LNG EXPORTS TO EUROPE REMAIN HIGH - VESSELS VALUE
Russian LNG exports to Europe remained at very high levels in February at 3.6 million CBM, following a 13 month high in January of 4.1 million CBM. ...
Saturday, 18 March 23
HEDGE TO OFFSET LNG VOLATILITY, TRADERS TOLD - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A shift in imports from Asia to Europe led to significant volatility in liquefied natural gas shipping last year, prompting industry experts to urg ...
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- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Australian Coal Association
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
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- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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