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Friday, 02 August 24
COAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: FALLING PRICES AMID RECORD-HIGH OUTPUT - WORLD BANK
 Coal prices inched up in May (m/m) following an 8 percent decline in 2024Q1. The Australian and South African benchmarks have plummeted more than 60 percent from their peaks in 2022, driven by soft economic activity and lower gas prices, which negatively affected demand for coal in the power sector. This significant drop has been bolstered by robust supply and gradually increasing penetration of renewable electricity. Nonetheless, prices remain well above their 2015-19 average. A sharp decline in prices has already unfolded in 2024, compared to the 2023 average, with further reductions anticipated in 2025 as renewable power generation meets rising electricity demand. Major risks to this outlook include stronger-than-expected growth in China's power output and hydropower shortfalls.
Global consumption hits a record high. In 2023, coal consumption is estimated to have reached a record high, increasing by 120 million tons (1.4 percent) compared to 2022. However, demand growth decelerated due to weak global economic activity, high penetration of renewable electricity, and lower natural gas prices. In the United States and the European Union, demand fell by an estimated 100 million tons each, while it rose by approximately 220 million tons in China and 100 million tons in India. The global demand shift towards Asia persisted in 2023, with China and India currently accounting for 70 percent of total consumption.
Global coal production remains robust. Production is estimated to have increased by about 150 million tons (Mmt) in 2023. In India, output rose by approximately 100 Mmt, while China's production grew by about 50 Mmt, partly due to enhanced safety measures in domestic mines. Conversely, production in the United States and the European Union declined by roughly 50 Mmt and 70 Mmt, respectively. In Australia, production stagnated due to labor shortages and sluggish exports to China, which have not fully recovered after China lifted its ban on Australian imports in January 2023, originally imposed in 2021.
Global trade reaches record highs. In 2023, global coal trade is estimated to have reached a record high, increasing by 100 Mmt. The growth was largely driven by a 150 Mmt rise in Chinese imports, as domestic production could not keep pace with growing consumption. Reflecting these consumption patterns, the Asia Pacific region accounted for approximately 80 percent of global coal imports. In the meantime, the European Union has continued to substitute exports from Russia by increasing trade with several commercial partners including the Australia, Colombia, South Africa and the United States.
Coal prices are expected to decline by 28 percent in 2024 and a further 12 percent in 2025. Upside risks to the coal price outlook includes higher-than-expected growth in China’s consumption and various factors that could lower renewable electricity production, such as low rainfall or light wind conditions. Downside risks include ample supply and weaker-than-expected global growth. The baseline assumption that China’s coal demand peaked in 2023 may be challenged by stronger-than-expected growth in power generation, as seen in 2021, or shortfalls in output from hydropower, as in 2023. Additionally, new coal mines are under development in China, and about 110 GW of coal plants were approved in 2023, indicating that domestic coal consumption could continue to rise. Production data covering 2024Q1 indicate that coal demand in the power sector in China will increase in 2024 unless renewable generation booms over the summer months or demand for electricity decreases.
By Paolo Agnolucci & Kaltrina Temaj
World Bank
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Saturday, 25 March 23
ASIAN CRUDE PALM OIL WATCH 1Q23 - FITCH RATINGS
Malaysian benchmark crude palm oil (CPO) spot prices have averaged around USD915 per tonne (t) so far in 1Q23, sharply lower than the average of ar ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
INDONESIA’S COAL EXPORT INCREASED BY 21.0% YOY TO 388.4 MLN T IN 2022 - BANCHERO COSTA
After a slow start in the first quarter, global coal trade has really picked up pace last year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels. In the f ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
GLOBAL LNG-ASIA SPOT PRICES SLIP AS WEAK NORTHERN DEMAND REMAINS - REUTERS
Asian spot prices of liquefied natural gas (LNG) declined this week, falling to a 21-month low, as weak demand in the northeast Asia region continu ...
Wednesday, 22 March 23
OIL PRICE FALL SPECULATIVE, TO HIT $140 BY YEAR-END -ANDURAND: REUTERS
The recent fall in oil prices due to banking jitters is speculative and oil will hit $140 a barrel by the end of the year, hedge fund manager Pierr ...
Wednesday, 22 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The crude tanker market continues to gather momentum as we head towards the end of 1Q2023, against a backdrop of strong U.S. exports paired with a ...
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- Economic Council, Georgia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The University of Queensland
- Minerals Council of Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
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