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Friday, 02 August 24
COAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: FALLING PRICES AMID RECORD-HIGH OUTPUT - WORLD BANK
 Coal prices inched up in May (m/m) following an 8 percent decline in 2024Q1. The Australian and South African benchmarks have plummeted more than 60 percent from their peaks in 2022, driven by soft economic activity and lower gas prices, which negatively affected demand for coal in the power sector. This significant drop has been bolstered by robust supply and gradually increasing penetration of renewable electricity. Nonetheless, prices remain well above their 2015-19 average. A sharp decline in prices has already unfolded in 2024, compared to the 2023 average, with further reductions anticipated in 2025 as renewable power generation meets rising electricity demand. Major risks to this outlook include stronger-than-expected growth in China's power output and hydropower shortfalls.
Global consumption hits a record high. In 2023, coal consumption is estimated to have reached a record high, increasing by 120 million tons (1.4 percent) compared to 2022. However, demand growth decelerated due to weak global economic activity, high penetration of renewable electricity, and lower natural gas prices. In the United States and the European Union, demand fell by an estimated 100 million tons each, while it rose by approximately 220 million tons in China and 100 million tons in India. The global demand shift towards Asia persisted in 2023, with China and India currently accounting for 70 percent of total consumption.
Global coal production remains robust. Production is estimated to have increased by about 150 million tons (Mmt) in 2023. In India, output rose by approximately 100 Mmt, while China's production grew by about 50 Mmt, partly due to enhanced safety measures in domestic mines. Conversely, production in the United States and the European Union declined by roughly 50 Mmt and 70 Mmt, respectively. In Australia, production stagnated due to labor shortages and sluggish exports to China, which have not fully recovered after China lifted its ban on Australian imports in January 2023, originally imposed in 2021.
Global trade reaches record highs. In 2023, global coal trade is estimated to have reached a record high, increasing by 100 Mmt. The growth was largely driven by a 150 Mmt rise in Chinese imports, as domestic production could not keep pace with growing consumption. Reflecting these consumption patterns, the Asia Pacific region accounted for approximately 80 percent of global coal imports. In the meantime, the European Union has continued to substitute exports from Russia by increasing trade with several commercial partners including the Australia, Colombia, South Africa and the United States.
Coal prices are expected to decline by 28 percent in 2024 and a further 12 percent in 2025. Upside risks to the coal price outlook includes higher-than-expected growth in China’s consumption and various factors that could lower renewable electricity production, such as low rainfall or light wind conditions. Downside risks include ample supply and weaker-than-expected global growth. The baseline assumption that China’s coal demand peaked in 2023 may be challenged by stronger-than-expected growth in power generation, as seen in 2021, or shortfalls in output from hydropower, as in 2023. Additionally, new coal mines are under development in China, and about 110 GW of coal plants were approved in 2023, indicating that domestic coal consumption could continue to rise. Production data covering 2024Q1 indicate that coal demand in the power sector in China will increase in 2024 unless renewable generation booms over the summer months or demand for electricity decreases.
By Paolo Agnolucci & Kaltrina Temaj
World Bank
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Sunday, 16 April 23
CHINA'S MARCH COAL IMPORTS JUMP TO 3-YEAR HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal imports surged in March to their highest in any month over the past three years as utilities increased purchases on expectations ...
Sunday, 16 April 23
OPEC KEEPS WORLD OIL DEMAND GROWTH OUTLOOK UNCHANGED
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined in March by $3.43, or 4.2%, m-o-m to average $78.45/b. The ICE Brent first-month contract fell by $4.33, o ...
Sunday, 16 April 23
CHEAPER SPOT LNG PRICES TEMPT SOME ASIAN BUYERS AMID SUPPLY GAINS - REUTERS
Cheaper spot prices for liquefied natural gas (LNG) are luring price-sensitive buyers back in Asia, with China and India recording rising imports i ...
Tuesday, 11 April 23
COAL USE CLIMBS WORLDWIDE DESPITE PROMISES TO SLASH IT - AAP
The burning of coal for electricity, cement, steel and other uses went up in 2022 despite global promises to phase down the fuel that is the bigges ...
Tuesday, 11 April 23
OIL RISES ON CHINA STIMULUS EXPECTATIONS, WEAKER DOLLAR - REUTERS
Oil prices rose on Tuesday on expectations of potential economic stimulus by China, healthy demand in the rest of Asia and a drop in U.S. crude sto ...
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- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The University of Queensland
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
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