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Tuesday, 13 February 24
WHAT IS THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NATURAL GAS SPOT PRICE IN 2024 AND 2025? EIA
We expect the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas spot price to average higher in 2024 and 2025 than in 2023, but to remain lower than $3.00 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), in our February Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). We forecast increases in natural gas prices as demand for natural gas grows faster than supply in 2024.
In 2022 and 2023, increases in natural gas supply (domestic natural gas production and imports) exceeded the increases in natural gas demand (domestic consumption and exports). In 2024, we expect the reverse will be true: demand increases by 2.3 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in our forecast, and supply remains relatively flat. In 2025, we expect supply and demand to grow at similar rates, although inventories will build because supply will still slightly exceed demand in our forecast.
At the end of January 2024, 7% more natural gas was held in U.S. inventories than the five-year (2019–23) average for that time of year. We expect natural gas inventories to remain high relative to their previous five-year average throughout 2024 and 2025.
We forecast that most of our increase in U.S. natural gas supply will come from domestic production of associated natural gas, much of which is in the Permian region of western Texas and eastern New Mexico. As a result, if U.S. crude oil production is less than we expect, we will also see less natural gas production than we forecast. In late 2023, we described in a STEO Perspectives paper how different crude oil prices might affect crude oil and natural gas production in our short-term forecast.
Growth in natural gas demand is driven by domestic consumption in 2024, then exports in 2025
We expect natural gas consumption to grow in all sectors in 2024 except the industrial sector, where we expect consumption will decrease slightly. Sectoral changes in natural gas consumption depend mostly on the weather. Natural gas-fired power plants provide about 40% of U.S. electricity generation annually, so electricity demand from heating and air-conditioning equipment influences how much natural gas the electric power sector consumes. We expect about 11% more U.S. natural gas consumption for electricity in 2024 than the previous five-year average.
In the residential and commercial sectors, colder temperatures in the winter also affect direct natural gas consumption by heating equipment. We expect combined consumption in the residential and commercial sectors to be 5% higher in 2024 than in 2023 because January 2023 and December 2023 had warmer-than-average temperatures, leading to relatively low consumption of natural gas for space heating. Our assumptions for future weather largely reflect the trend of the past 30 years.
The mix of energy sources and technologies used to generate electricity also affects natural gas consumption in the electric power sector. As developers add more generating capacity from solar- and wind-powered generators, those generators’ incremental generation may reduce the need to dispatch natural gas-fired power plants. Changes in the timing and magnitude of new solar and wind capacity would also affect our forecast for natural gas consumption in the electric power sector.
U.S. natural gas exports depend on the timing of new LNG export terminals
The United States exported 20.8 Bcf/d of natural gas in 2023, 57% as liquefied natural gas (LNG). At the end of 2023, 11.4 Bcf/d of baseload nameplate LNG export capacity had been built in the United States, and we expect developers to add an additional 5.3 Bcf/d of new LNG export capacity by the end of 2025.
According to trade press reports and other sources, three new terminals will come on line in the second half of 2024 and in 2025. Any changes to the operational dates of the three new export terminals—Golden Pass and Corpus Christi Stage III in Texas and Plaquemines LNG in Louisiana—may notably affect our LNG export forecast and, in turn, our overall natural gas demand expectations.
Our forecast accounts for the recent U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) announcement to pause determinations on applications to export LNG to countries with which the United States does not have a free trade agreement. However, capacity additions through 2025 will not be affected because these projects have been fully authorized by DOE and are already under construction.
Natural gas prices at several price hubs in Europe and Asia remain relatively high over the forecast period compared with U.S. natural gas prices. We assume that U.S. LNG over the forecast period will continue to replace natural gas that had been exported from Russia by pipeline to Europe. Because global LNG liquefaction capacity additions will be limited in the next two years, demand for flexible LNG supplies, mainly from the United States, will increase to meet incremental growth in global demand.
Source: EIA
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Tuesday, 02 January 24
COAL TRADE CONTINUES TO HEAD EAST - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The global coal trade, once concentrated in the Pacific and Atlantic basins, is undergoing a significant transformation, as highlighted in the Inte ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
COAL CARGOES: AVOIDING EXPLOSION AND SELF-HEATING - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Despite its contribution to greenhouse gas emissions, global coal consumption climbed to an all-time high in 2022 and is ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
SINOPEC FORECASTS CHINA’S COAL CONSUMPTION TO PEAK AROUND 2025 - REUTERS
China Petrochemical Corp, or Sinopec, expects coal consumption to peak around 2025 at 4.37 billion metric tons, the state energy group said in an o ...
Thursday, 07 December 23
CHINA TO SET UP COAL PRODUCTION RESERVE TO STABILISE PRICES - REUTERS
China will establish a back-up coal production system by 2027 to stabilise prices and secure coal supply, the state planner said on Wednesday, even ...
Friday, 01 December 23
COAL MINERS GROUP EXPECTS INDONESIA’S 2023 COAL OUTPUT TO SURPASS TARGET - REUTERS
The Indonesian Coal Mining Association (ICMA) expects the country’s 2023 coal output to surpass the official target of 695 million metric ton ...
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- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The University of Queensland
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- White Energy Company Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
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