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Tuesday, 13 February 24
WHAT IS THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NATURAL GAS SPOT PRICE IN 2024 AND 2025? EIA
We expect the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas spot price to average higher in 2024 and 2025 than in 2023, but to remain lower than $3.00 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), in our February Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). We forecast increases in natural gas prices as demand for natural gas grows faster than supply in 2024.
In 2022 and 2023, increases in natural gas supply (domestic natural gas production and imports) exceeded the increases in natural gas demand (domestic consumption and exports). In 2024, we expect the reverse will be true: demand increases by 2.3 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in our forecast, and supply remains relatively flat. In 2025, we expect supply and demand to grow at similar rates, although inventories will build because supply will still slightly exceed demand in our forecast.
At the end of January 2024, 7% more natural gas was held in U.S. inventories than the five-year (2019–23) average for that time of year. We expect natural gas inventories to remain high relative to their previous five-year average throughout 2024 and 2025.
We forecast that most of our increase in U.S. natural gas supply will come from domestic production of associated natural gas, much of which is in the Permian region of western Texas and eastern New Mexico. As a result, if U.S. crude oil production is less than we expect, we will also see less natural gas production than we forecast. In late 2023, we described in a STEO Perspectives paper how different crude oil prices might affect crude oil and natural gas production in our short-term forecast.
Growth in natural gas demand is driven by domestic consumption in 2024, then exports in 2025
We expect natural gas consumption to grow in all sectors in 2024 except the industrial sector, where we expect consumption will decrease slightly. Sectoral changes in natural gas consumption depend mostly on the weather. Natural gas-fired power plants provide about 40% of U.S. electricity generation annually, so electricity demand from heating and air-conditioning equipment influences how much natural gas the electric power sector consumes. We expect about 11% more U.S. natural gas consumption for electricity in 2024 than the previous five-year average.
In the residential and commercial sectors, colder temperatures in the winter also affect direct natural gas consumption by heating equipment. We expect combined consumption in the residential and commercial sectors to be 5% higher in 2024 than in 2023 because January 2023 and December 2023 had warmer-than-average temperatures, leading to relatively low consumption of natural gas for space heating. Our assumptions for future weather largely reflect the trend of the past 30 years.
The mix of energy sources and technologies used to generate electricity also affects natural gas consumption in the electric power sector. As developers add more generating capacity from solar- and wind-powered generators, those generators’ incremental generation may reduce the need to dispatch natural gas-fired power plants. Changes in the timing and magnitude of new solar and wind capacity would also affect our forecast for natural gas consumption in the electric power sector.
U.S. natural gas exports depend on the timing of new LNG export terminals
The United States exported 20.8 Bcf/d of natural gas in 2023, 57% as liquefied natural gas (LNG). At the end of 2023, 11.4 Bcf/d of baseload nameplate LNG export capacity had been built in the United States, and we expect developers to add an additional 5.3 Bcf/d of new LNG export capacity by the end of 2025.
According to trade press reports and other sources, three new terminals will come on line in the second half of 2024 and in 2025. Any changes to the operational dates of the three new export terminals—Golden Pass and Corpus Christi Stage III in Texas and Plaquemines LNG in Louisiana—may notably affect our LNG export forecast and, in turn, our overall natural gas demand expectations.
Our forecast accounts for the recent U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) announcement to pause determinations on applications to export LNG to countries with which the United States does not have a free trade agreement. However, capacity additions through 2025 will not be affected because these projects have been fully authorized by DOE and are already under construction.
Natural gas prices at several price hubs in Europe and Asia remain relatively high over the forecast period compared with U.S. natural gas prices. We assume that U.S. LNG over the forecast period will continue to replace natural gas that had been exported from Russia by pipeline to Europe. Because global LNG liquefaction capacity additions will be limited in the next two years, demand for flexible LNG supplies, mainly from the United States, will increase to meet incremental growth in global demand.
Source: EIA
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Friday, 24 November 23
COAL IMPORTS TO INDIA IN OCTOBER 2023 REACHED HIGHEST LEVELS IN NEARLY A YEAR AND A HALF - VESSELSVALUE, VESON NAUTICAL
In October, coal imports to India reached 13.8 mt in October 2023, according to Oceanbolt, a Veson Nautical solution, the highest level since May 2 ...
Friday, 24 November 23
COAL SHIPMENTS TO ADVANCED ECONOMIES DOWN 17% SO FAR IN 2023 - BIMCO
In the first ten months of 2023, coal shipments to advanced economies fell by 17% y/y, as demand for electricity declined and the share of electric ...
Friday, 24 November 23
INTELLIGENT COAL MINES CONTRIBUTE TO IMPROVING SAFETY STANDARDS - CHINA DAILY
Mechanization, automation and intelligent upgrades have contributed to improved safety in coal mines, though the level of development of intelligen ...
Friday, 24 November 23
WHY AUSTRALIA'S COAL MINES ARE GETTING BIGGER - IEEFA
Australia’s largest coal mines are getting larger. Mines in New South Wales (NSW) are ramping up production following the state’s recov ...
Wednesday, 22 November 23
INDIA: GOVERNMENT PLANS 1.4 BILLION TONNE COAL OUTPUT BY 2027 - LIVEMINT
The Union coal ministry on Monday announced plans to increase India’s coal production to 1.404 billion tonne by 2027, with an eye to further ...
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- White Energy Company Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PTC India Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The University of Queensland
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
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